Sachin Reddy, who has got his predictions more accurate than anyone else, has elucidated the reasons why the Bharatiya Janata Party fell short of a majority in Karnataka. According to him, internal sabotage played a significant part in seats where the BJP lost by narrow margins.
https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu/status/994833389080498176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
In Gubbi, for instance, the BJP candidate lost to JD(S) by a margin of 9000 votes while a BJP rebel Dileep Kumar secured 30000 votes.
https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu/status/996822853113798656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
A similar pattern was observed in in Indi, Bailanhongala and Jamakhandi.
https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu/status/996820748613357568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Poor management of caste equations and ticket distribution cost the BJP several seats as well, especially Bidar.
https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu/status/996826597733883904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
However, the biggest boost to the BJP came from Central and Coastal Karnataka where it bettered its tally from 2008. The Modi-Shah factor worked in the coastal region while B.S. Yeddyurappa carried the day in Central Karnataka.
https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu/status/996833427570810880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
While the BJP fell short of a majority, the Congress and JD(S), despite going at each other’s throat throughout their election campaign formed an alliance. However, with dissenters from both parties poised to support BJP, BS Yeddyurappa has been sworn in as the chief minister with 15 days to prove his majority on the floor of the house.
The conclusion appears to be that although 104 seats is a remarkable performance by the BJP, without internal sabotage and better ticket distribution, it could have comfortably secured a majority on its own.