Cricket World Cup semi final scenario: The fight for the 4th place

Tournament's favorites are at brink of an exit. ©ICC

Australia has already qualified for the semi-final with 14 points in their eight games. India and New Zealand are almost sure to qualify with 11 points each even if they lose all remaining games in the tournament.

How? Let’s first look at the Points table.

Teams Mat Won Lost NR Points NRR
Australia 8 7 1 0 14 1.000
India 6 5 0 1 11 1.160
New Zealand 8 5 2 1 11 0.572
Pakistan 8 4 3 1 9 -0.792
England 7 4 3 0 8 1.051
Bangladesh 7 3 3 1 7 -0.133
Sri Lanka 7 2 3 2 6 -1.186
South Africa 8 2 5 1 5 -0.080
West Indies 7 1 5 1 3 -0.320
Afghanistan 8 0 8 0 0 -1.418

The minimum points required to qualify for the first three positions is 11. Both India and New Zealand have 11 points already.


So even if India loses its next three games, they will still qualify because of their superior run rate.


New Zealand will also qualify if they lose the last game against England because of their high run rate. Even if they lose it by a considerable margin, their run rate will not go beyond 0.


If they have to qualify, they have to win at least one game. They have 8 points before India’s game, now if they win both the games, they will have 12 points and will qualify with Australia, India and New Zealand. However, if they lose one of the matches, their fortunes will depend on India-Bangladesh and Bangladesh-Pakistan. To qualify they would need Bangladesh to lose against India and Pakistan to lose against Bangladesh. Also if Sri Lanka (6 points) win their next two games against West Indies and India, they will not qualify as England will have five wins, while Sri Lanka would have only 4 (2 points for washout).


After their win against Afghanistan, they are placed at number 4 in the points table with 9 points. They would want England to lose at least one game so that England has a maximum of 10 points and then Pakistan beat Bangladesh in their last group match. With 11 points they will qualify. Pakistan v Bangladesh will virtually become a quarter-final.


They have to win both games against India and Pakistan to reach 11 points. If England loses both the matches against India and New Zealand, then Bangladesh needs to win at least one against either India or Pakistan. With 9 points they will qualify with a better run rate. Of course, at the same time, they have to pray that Sri Lanka loses at least one game against India or West Indies.


They have to hope for England to lose both the games and then India needs to beat Bangladesh, and Bangladesh needs to beat Pakistan, in that scenario both Bangladesh and Pakistan will have 9 points, and if Sri Lanka win their last two matches against West Indies and India, they will have 10 points, and they will qualify.

Ritesh: Cricket enthusiast, Tendulkar fan and a traveler  !
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