Friday, June 18, 2021
Home News Reports United Nations raises India’s growth forecast for 2021 to 7.5%, says outlook ‘highly fragile’...

United Nations raises India’s growth forecast for 2021 to 7.5%, says outlook ‘highly fragile’ due to COVID-19 second wave

With the forecast of 10.1 per cent in 2022, India will become the fastest-growing major economy in the world, moving past China

Even as India grapples with the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak, the United Nations has raised the country’s growth forecast by 0.2 per cent to 7.5 per cent for the fiscal year 2021.

However, the UN cautioned that the growth outlook of India was “highly fragile” as it is the “new hotbed of the coronavirus outbreak”.

The World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) released on Tuesday estimated that the Indian economy would grow at 10.1 per cent in the calendar year 2022, nearly double the 5.9 per cent growth projections for the country in its January report.

With the forecast of 10.1 per cent in 2022, India will become the fastest-growing major economy in the world, moving past China, which is predicted to grow at 5.8 per cent, markedly slower than the 8.2 per cent growth estimates for the year 2021.

Dr Aurodeep Nandi of Nomura says the downturn in the economy due to coronavirus outbreak is fleeting and less severe

Meanwhile, with India currently in the throes of the resurgent coronavirus outbreak, the Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) fell to 64.5 for the week ended May 9 from 69.7 the prior week (i.e., 35.5pp below pre-pandemic levels). The drop in the NIBRI could be attributed to the rolling state-wide lockdowns that are having a debilitating effect on the sequential growth.

However, Dr Aurodeep Nandi of Nomura is upbeat on India’s resilience, stating that the effect on the GDP this time around will be likely lesser than the previous year. In an interview with the ET Now, Nandi said that in the last year’s lockdown, India was down by about 55 per cent levels. However, this year, the slump is relatively less as the indices suggest that India is down by 35 per cent vis-a-vis pre-pandemic levels.

Elaborating on how the downturn in the economy due to the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak will be limited, Nandi explained that the first wave brought with it an element of shock and surprise, which devastated the economy. However, in the second wave, he argues, the economy and the consumers have grown used to the pandemic. Therefore, the damage to the economy this time is likely limited, he said.

Moody’s slashes India’s growth forecast to 9.3 per cent for the current fiscal year

Additionally, Moody’s Investor Services on Tuesday lowered India’s growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.3 per cent, stating that the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak restricts economic recovery and poses a risk of longer-term scarring.

The US-based ratings agency had forecasted 13.7 per cent growth for India in the month of February.

“The surge of the virus, which has been driven by a highly contagious variant, has put significant strain on India’s healthcare system with hospitals overrun and medical supplies in short supply,” Moody’s said.

However, it added that the impact of the lockdowns induced by the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak is not going to be as severe as the first wave. In the first wave, strict nationwide lockdowns were imposed to curb the spread of the virus. But in the second wave, localised lockdowns are being imposed, with only those area affected by the contagion being locked under. Businesses and customers have also grown accustomed to this new normal, Moody’s said.

Just as India’s economy was limping back to normal, the country was hit by a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak in March 2021, this time with a more virulent strain of the virus, prompting states and cities to impose lockdowns and restrict public movement. As a result, the economy and the businesses took a hit as state and local government enforced localised lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus.

  Support Us  

Whether NDTV or 'The Wire', they never have to worry about funds. In name of saving democracy, they get money from various sources. We need your support to fight them. Please contribute whatever you can afford

OpIndia Staffhttps://www.opindia.com
Staff reporter at OpIndia

Related Articles

Trending now

Haryana: Man burnt alive to make him ‘martyr’ against farm laws, villagers demand security from ‘farmers’ at Tikri border

As per reports, casteist slurs were hurled towards Mukesh after which he was set on fire. A video of him being set on fire has gone viral on social media where one can hear casteist abuses being thrown at him before he was set ablaze.

How a personal animosity was turned into defaming ‘Jai Shri Ram’ chant: All you need to know about Ghaziabad incident

The chronology of what all transpired in the fake 'hate crime' story where an elderly Muslim man claimed he was attacked and forced to chant 'Jai Shri Ram'

Mamata Banerjee govt recommends suspension of several accounts from Twitter, YouTube and Facebook, for criticising her: What we know

Sources indicate that Govt of West Bengal recently recommended the suspension of over 200 accounts for criticising Mamata Banerjee

The churn in Bengal BJP is normal and on expected lines. Here is why I don’t worry too much about it

Candidates don’t matter so much in Bengal, party affiliations do. The TMC proved this beyond all possible doubt in 2021.

The Wire tries to force fit a ‘hate crime’ angle in Ghaziabad incident only because victim is a Muslim

The Wire lowers its bar, goes from whitewashing Islamist terrorists to defending random 'taveez maker' from rural Uttar Pradesh

‘Based on social media narrative than evidence and chargesheet: Delhi Police files SLP after Pinjra Tod accused get bail

On 15th June, the Delhi High Court granted bail to Jamia Milia Islamia student leader Asif Iqbal Tanha, far-left ‘activists’ Devangana Kalita and Natasha Narwal in the Anti-Hindu Delhi riots case.

Recently Popular

Dhruv Rathee fans mark YouTuber Karolina Goswami for targeted harassment after she exposed his lies

After Karolina Goswami pointed out the factual errors and mistakes in the Dhruv Rathee video, Rathee's supporters have been harassing and abusing Goswami.

Pakistani audience go ballistic over Zee5 web series featuring Muslim girl-Indian Hindu boy love story, call it ‘haram’

The Pakistani web series features the love story between a Pakistani Muslim girl and Indian Hindu boy who have both lost their fathers to the conflict between the two nations.

Ghaziabad fake hate crime case: Unmuted video of elderly man seconds before he was beaten up released. Watch

In the video, Abdul can be heard admitting that one Intezar sent some people to him to make the 'tabeez' (occult amulet) and put them in his spell as he had some work from them.

AAP celebrates Delhi’s new architectural marvel, the Moti Nagar speed breaker

AAP's Moti Nagar MLA has recently inaugurated a speed breaker, along with dozens of supporters flouting social distancing norms.

Twitter India MD told Delhi Police he does not know directors and owner of his company, details of his boss: Feigning ignorance or...

Twitter India MD Manish Maheshwari said he does know who owns Twitter India, and which company his boss Yu Sasamoto belongs to

Virtual hearing embarrassment: Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi caught attending the court proceedings without pants

Abhishek Manu Singhvi was caught attending court proceedings in boxer shorts when one of the screens accidentally fell off and showed the naked legs of the senior advocate
- Advertisement -

 

Connect with us

255,564FansLike
554,244FollowersFollow
24,400SubscribersSubscribe