On 28th March, Arvind Kejriwal represented himself for five minutes in Rouse Avenue Courts as his Enforcement Directorate custody ended. ED sought a 7-day extension on his remand while he and his lawyers questioned why he was arrested. But we are here not to discuss what happened in the court but to discuss how and why I managed to predict precisely what his steps will be following ED arrest.
First, come to today’s prediction. As Kejriwal spoke in court, I posted a prediction on X (formerly Twitter) that I thought might become true. I wrote, “Prediction for today: As Arvind Kejriwal is “speaking for himself” in the court, AAP leaders will say “Kejriwal ji reminded us of Bhagat Singh today” referring to his trial after the parliament bombing. They may even use creatives of him with Bhagat Singh’s portraits.”
And behold! AAP did not disappoint me, and a trend appeared on social media within 20 minutes of my post to project Kejriwal as Bhagat Singh. One of the “popular” AAP supporters, supporters who go by the handle DarubaazMehta, started a trend “, Arvind Kejriwal aaj ka Bhagat Singh Hai”, and many of the AAP supporters it.
I literally had the feeling “Kabhi kabhi lagta hai apun hi bhagwan hai“.
Another AAP supporter, Aarti, said she did not see Bhagat Singh and asserted he would look like Kejriwal.
There were many other similar posts on social media. Now the question is, was this prediction a fluke? I do not have a strong reason for it. On 27th March, it was reported that diabetic Arvind Kejriwal’s health deteriorated, and his sugar level fell to 46. Interestingly, I wrote soon after his arrest on 21st March, “Prediction for tomorrow: Kejriwal’s sugar will fluctuate, and his counsel will approach the court seeking permission to admit him to hospital.”
Though my prediction went off track by a few days, eventually, it happened. I predicted his health would suffer and expected it to be a headline. It happened. So, how am I able to predict AAP’s next move? Am I an astrologer, or does someone work for me inside AAP? No. There is nothing like that.
I have followed AAP and seen its political campaigns closely since its inception. I received calls from then-AAP supporters to join the crusade and get into power to “change the future of India”, which I politely refused. I am pro-BJP forever, another ‘Sanghi Who Never Went To Shakha’. After over a decade of seeing them dance, predicting AAP’s next move has become easier. AAP as a political party is highly predictable. They play by the textbook of victimhood and present themselves as messiahs who can never do anything wrong.
It is one of the most egoist things a politician can do. After winning a small state that is not an entire state, that is, Delhi, and sweeping Assembly Elections in Punjab, AAP thinks that they are invincible. However, their leadership has conveniently shrugged the fact under the rug that every other state they contested did not vote for them. Let it be Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand or any other state. The voters ignored them. They got some seats in Gujarat only because Congress faded into the state. The case was the same in Punjab. After testing Akali Dal, Congress and BJP, the people of Punjab looked for change. AAP was the only party that looked for an alternative. However, it is hard to expect that AAP will be able to repeat the performance of Assembly Elections in Lok Sabha Elections. People do not vote in General Elections on local matters, and AAP’s future is looking bleak.
Even a non-seasoned political observer like me can see that it is getting harder for AAP to secure any seat in the Lok Sabha elections every day. All of their star campaigners, including Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia, are in jail. Bhagwant Mann, Atishi, Saurabh Bharadwaj and Raghav Chaddha will not be able to draw crowds like Kejriwal could have done.
Kejriwal should have appeared before ED in October 2023 when he received his first summons. It would have been easier for him to stay out of jail. However, Kejriwal and the team thought it would be “krantikari” to avoid summons and make ED run behind them. It has backfired as Kejriwal failed to secure bail a little over two weeks before Lok Sabha polls starting on 16th April 2024.
In contrast to AAP, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) plays the field as per its rules. They could be more predictable, and it is impossible to say what the party will do next whether it be elections or running the government. Notable, it is one of the aspects of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government that has baffled the media fraternity. It is next to impossible to get a whiff of what is cooking inside the government’s office.
AAP is still a young party. They think they have become some big shots in the political landscape but are far from it. AAP usually behaves like a teenager who thinks he is the “know-it-all”. If they survive this election, there is much to learn from the party and its leaders.
To conclude, I predict a Maharashtra-like situation in Punjab soon where most of AAP’s MLAs break off. They may form a new party or in a very unpredictable move, join hands with the BJP to form a government. It is a possibility, and only the future will tell if I am correct.