Between 1950 and 2015, the population share of Hindus in India declined sharply by 7.8% while Muslim share grew by 43.15%, Christians by 5.38%, and Sikhs by 6.58%, as revealed by a recent report submitted by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi (EAC-PM). However, the share of Jain and Parsi communities in the population mix has decreased in the last 65 years which is equivalent to three generations.
The study titled, Share of Religious Minorities – A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015) was released in May 2024. It has been co-authored by Shamika Ravi, Abraham Jose, and Apurv Kumar Mishra. It assessed the global trends of the demographic shift in 167 countries where a religious denomination/group was in the “majority”.
According to the study, the share of Hindus in India’s population saw a decrease from 84% in 1950 to 78% in 2015, while that of Muslims witnessed an increase from 9.84% to 14.09% in the same period.
Contrasting India’s demographic shift with our neighbourhood
While India’s performance is “consistent with the larger global trends”, the country’s population growth story is starkly different from nations in its immediate neighbourhood. As stated above, Hindus, the majority community in India, registered a decline of 7.8% between 1950 and 2015.
However, in neighbouring countries where Muslims (or their sect) constitute more than 50% – a majority, the community’s share witnessed an increase in the demographic mix. Bangladesh saw the steepest increase of 18.5%, followed by Pakistan (3.75%) and Afghanistan (0.29%).
According to the study, Pakistan witnessed an increase of 3.75% in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a 10% increase in the share of the total Muslim population despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Pertinent to note that while Muslims’ share increased by 10%, the study registers the rise of Pakistan’s majority as 3.75% as Hanafi Muslims constitute the majority ID in Pakistan, as per the study.
However, Hindus’ decline by 7.8% in India is the second most significant decline in the immediate neighbourhood, just after Myanmar’s 10%. Myanmar saw the highest decline in the majority community’s share in the overall population of the country.
In Myanmar, the majority population of Theravada Buddhists declined by 10% in 65 years. According to the study, just like India, Nepal’s majority community (Hindus) saw a 3.6% decline in its share of the country’s population.
India’s neighbours with a majority Buddhist population, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, also saw an increase of 17.6% and 5.25%, respectively. However, in the Maldives, the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47%, as per the study by PM’s EAC.
An increase in minority population reveals an overall favourable environment for ‘minority’ in that particular country: Study by PM-EAC lauds India’s track record on safeguarding minorities
According to the study, a reducing majority i.e. a negative rate of change in the share of the majority population (and an increase in the share of the minority population) from 1950-2015 means that it can be safely concluded that there exists an overall favourable environment for increasing diversity in the country.
The study noted, “Contrary to the noise in several quarters, careful analysis of the data shows that minorities are not just protected, but indeed thriving in India. Contrary to the noise in several quarters, 28 careful analyses of the data show that minorities are not just protected but indeed thriving in India. This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighbourhood where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Afghanistan.”
The study further stated that a decrease in the share of the majority population and a consequent increase in the share of minorities suggests that the net result of all policy actions, political decisions, and societal processes is to provide a conducive environment for increasing diversity in society. It added that India’s trend suggests “there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society”.
The study asserts the outcomes of these progressive policies and inclusive institutions are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India.
The study lauds India for being one of the few countries that has legally defined and provided protection to the “minorities”.
It stated, “By way of illustration, India is one of the few countries that has a legal definition of minorities and provides constitutionally protected rights for them. The outcomes of these progressive policies and inclusive institutions are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India.”
Highlighting the same, it explains the reason why India has been the favoured nation in our neighboured as persecuted minorities find shelter in India and run towards India during times of duress.
It emphasises, “It is not surprising, therefore, that minority populations from across the neighbourhood come to India during times of duress. India has been a nourishing environment for the Tibetian Buddhists who had to escape from China and have found a comfortable home in India in the last six decades. Similarly, Matuas who took refuge in India due to religious persecution in Bangladesh have been assimilated into Indian society. India also hosts a significant population of refugees from Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Myanmar and Afghanistan. Given its plural, liberal and democratic nature, India has continued its civilizational tradition of harbouring persecuted populations from several countries over the last six decades.”
Global Trend in Demographic Shift
According to the study, India’s population growth story or demographic shift is “consistent with the larger global trends”. As per the study, the world has become more heterogeneous in the previous six decades. In 1950, the share of the majority population in society was 75 per cent. However, the share of the majority religion in countries around the world has reduced by 22 per cent from 1950 to 2015.
As per the study, 123 countries experienced a decrease in the share of the majority religious group while its share increased in 44 countries. The change varies from a 99% decrease in Liberia to an 80% increase in Namibia.
The above table points out that sixteen different subcategories of Christianity are a majority in at least one country. Similarly, eight subcategories of Islam and three denominations of Buddhism constitute the majority population in at least one country.
In 1950, Animism, according to the RCS-Dem Dataset, was the predominant religion in 24 countries. However, by 2015, it no longer held the majority status in any of them. Among the 94 countries where Christianity was the majority religion in 1950, 77 experienced a decrease in its share in the overall population mix. Contrarily, during the same period, 25 out of the 38 countries with a Muslim majority saw an increase in the share of their majority religion. Interestingly, there are only two countries where Hindus constitute the majority, and in both cases, their share of the population has declined over the past 65 years.
In most continents, more countries saw a decrease in the share of the main religion group than an increase. Africa had the most extreme demographic shift, with 21 out of 40 countries experiencing significant shifts. Among 35 high-income OECD nations, the decline in the main religion’s dominance was higher at 29%, compared to the global average of 22%.
Possible reasons for demographic shift
The study points out that the change in the religious composition of a population is a complex phenomenon because several factors contribute to it, such as migration, conversion, differences in fertility rates, and variation in territorial boundaries as a result of political processes.
However, it categorically notes that it has not refrained from commenting on reasons for this shift as it has multiple variables but focuses on the share of the minority population as a cumulative outcome measure of their well-being.
Source for the data and Methodology
One major reason that academic study on the relationship between religion and outcomes within and between states has been relatively neglected is the lack of credible, granular, and timely datasets on religious demographics for countries around the world, the study notes explain the need for such an elaborate study about the changing demographic shift across the globe with a well-defined categorisation of the majority community.
The study, conducted by PM-EAC, relies on demographic data from the RCS-Dem dataset by ARDA, published in 2019. It asserts that RCS-Dem provides more comprehensive and consistent religious demographic data compared to other sources like WRD, WRP, and Pew Research Center’s Religious Landscape Studies. RCS-Dem records population numbers for 97 religious denominations from the early 1800s onwards.
The study focuses on the rate of change of the majority community’s share in a country’s population due to the absence of an internationally accepted definition of “minority” or “religious minority.” It defines a majority community as a religion or denomination comprising over 50% of a country’s total population in 1950, with subsects identified as the majority if they exceed 50%.