Sunday, July 12, 2020
Home News Reports Study By IIM-B professor debunks claims of 'jobless growth'

Study By IIM-B professor debunks claims of ‘jobless growth’

Also Read

Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party have continuously accused the government of not fulfilling their promise of creating jobs for the youth of the country. He repeated this accusation in his recent visit to Amethi and praised job creation in China.  Labour bureau figures have been cited as the source for justifying this misconception.

However, a deeper analysis shows that this perception of poor job creation under NDA tenure may be false.

Concerns of poor job data by former NITI Aayog chief

Former NITI Aayog chief Arvind Panagariya had remarked that job data in India is not accurate in an interview to Hindustan Times. This is because the labour bureau data on jobs, which is collected every three months covers only those firms which have more than 10 employees. Jobs created in informal sector are not covered. He also said that a more accurate source for job data , the NSSO household survey (Employment and Unemployment Survey) ,is collected once in five years. This makes it difficult for the government to assess real numbers of jobs created or lost in the economy.

Existing surveys to measure employment are misleading

In a study titled  ‘Towards a Payroll Reporting in India’,  conducted by Pulak Ghosh (Professor IIM, Bangalore) and Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, (Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI) have tried to address the poor jobs data scenario in India’s formal sector. They call the existing surveys to measure employment as ‘most misleading’ in their report. The reasons cited for this remark are (emphasis added) :

Information was sought from around 11,179 units as a representative sample for 8 sectors at all India level.

  • Number of non-respondent not disclosed in the Survey
  • The survey result comes with a huge lag. In the Dec’17 month Labour Bureau has published employment situation as of Mar’17
  •  This is primarily an establishment survey for collecting information on employment in the unit; therefore, it does not provide any information on unemployment in the country
  • The survey is based on either record or response of the unit. However, verification of record has not been resorted to for collection of data
  • The Collection of Statistics Act-2008, is not applied to QES. Hence, all the information provided by the selected unit/ establishment is on a voluntary basis
  • The Scope of QES is limited to all establishments having 10 or more workers and the scope & coverage is further limited to employment in Non-farm Industrial economy covering 8 selected sectors (vis-à-vis universe of 190 industries)

A better method for collecting employment data

The researchers have studied payroll data generated for new employees ( in the age group of 18 to 25) in formal sector for the financial year 2017-18. They have got the raw data for the study from ESIC (Employees’ State Insurance Corporation), NPS (National Pension Scheme) and GPF (Government Provident Fund) to understand the real scenario of jobs in the country. The main findings of their study is captured in two graphs.

Graph 1

Graph 1 : This graph captures the total number of payrolls collected from various organisations

Graph 1 is a compilation of the total number of payrolls generated for new employees in the age group of 18-25. This is more reliable than the labour bureau data as there is a confirmation of the employee numbers because of the social security payment records for the entire workforce in formal sector.

Graph 2

Graph 2 Number of jobs created is equal to new payrolls generated as per the study

Graph 2 captures the data of EPFO (till November ’17 ) ESIC (till September ’17 ) NPS (till October’17). It finds out the number of new employees on the payroll tIll the end of these months and estimates the number of jobs that may be added to the economy by the end of fiscal year.

7 million new jobs in 2017-18 is a conservative estimate

While commenting on these two graphs researchers say that the study is the first such study on payroll situation in India. They also remark that it is a conservative estimate and inclusion of data from other professional bodies could show a higher number of jobs in the economy. They suggest that the job scenario could be properly understood if EPFO, ESIC & NPS in collaboration publish a monthly report of new payrolls in India . They suggest big data analyses to capture payrolls generated in informal sector as well.

Thus the myth of poor job creation under the Narendra Modi government could turn out to be false. If a similar study is done for previous fiscals, the number of jobs generated so far under the NDA government might end up higher than those posted by the labour bureau data. A better method for capturing job data needs to be set up by the government to capture the scenario at ground level to debunk false perceptions created by the media and opposition

  Support Us  

Whether NDTV or 'The Wire', they never have to worry about funds. In name of saving democracy, they get money from various sources. We need your support to fight them. Please contribute whatever you can afford

Trending now

Sachin Pilot quitting Congress? Kapil Sibal ‘worried’ for Congress, tweets about ‘horses leaving stables’

Political crisis in Rajasthan seems have deepened as senior Congress leader Kapil Sibal took to Twitter to express his concern for the grand old party.

After shielding China, WHO chief now congratulates Maharashtra for ‘containing’ coronavirus amid exponentially rising cases

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has been under fire over allegations of covering up the pandemic while 'siding with' the Chinese govt.

Frustrated at not getting a bank job, teenager sets up his own fake SBI branch in Tamil Nadu, three arrested

The Panruti Police in Cuddalore district of Tamil Nadu have arrested three persons, including the son of former bank employees, for cheating customers by running a fake branch of the State Bank of India in the locality.

Sachin Pilot reaches Delhi with 25 MLAs amid speculations of Rajasthan government collapse, Gehlot holds late night meetings

Ashok Gehlot claimed that the State government was stable and would continue to remain so despite all efforts to the contrary

Telangana: Man takes dead body of his coronavirus positive relative to graveyard in auto rickshaw, flouts safety norms

In the image that has now gone viral, neither the relative of the deceased nor the driver of autorickshaw can be seen wearing any protective gear.

Pakistanis are shocked that Turkish actress does not cover herself head-to-toe in real life like her role in TV show Ertugrul, slams for wearing...

Pakistani Islamists troll Turkish actress Esra Bilgiç for her modern clothing, not traditional dress like her historical role in a TV show

Recently Popular

The curious case of ‘Drone Boy’ who has made 600 drones using broken mixer grinders and televisions. A fact-check

While 'drone boy' Prathap NM has claimed to have made 600 drones using e-waste, not a single photo or video of them exist

‘Drone boy’ Prathap NM makes a statement after OpIndia fact-check: Here is why his explanation makes little sense

'Drone boy' Prathap NM says he won't show his drones due to intellectual property issues, but will show certificates from unregistered events

Stand-up comedian apologises for insulting memorial to Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj in Arabian sea after MNS workers vandalised studio

The stand-up 'comedian' Agrima Joshua had made scornfully derisive remarks in her video against the Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj memorial that is going to be erected in the Arabian Sea

‘Maaro, Kafiro ko Maaro’: From creating fake alibi to mobilising thousands of Muslims against Hindus, read what Tahir Hussain did in his own words

Disclosure Statement in the chargesheet which was narrated and signed by Tahir Hussain in his own words, reveal a sinister design during Delhi riots

Pakistanis are shocked that Turkish actress does not cover herself head-to-toe in real life like her role in TV show Ertugrul, slams for wearing...

Pakistani Islamists troll Turkish actress Esra Bilgiç for her modern clothing, not traditional dress like her historical role in a TV show

Sachin Pilot quitting Congress? Kapil Sibal ‘worried’ for Congress, tweets about ‘horses leaving stables’

Political crisis in Rajasthan seems have deepened as senior Congress leader Kapil Sibal took to Twitter to express his concern for the grand old party.

Mother, niece, and sister-in-law of actor Anupam Kher diagnosed with Coronavirus

Anupam Kher took to Twitter to inform that his mother Dulari has tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus

Jharkhand: Controversy erupts after LKG and UKG students made to memorise Pakistan and Bangladesh national anthem

Students of a school in Jharkhand asked to memorise Pakistan and Bangladesh anthem in WhatsApp class

After shielding China, WHO chief now congratulates Maharashtra for ‘containing’ coronavirus amid exponentially rising cases

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has been under fire over allegations of covering up the pandemic while 'siding with' the Chinese govt.

Frustrated at not getting a bank job, teenager sets up his own fake SBI branch in Tamil Nadu, three arrested

The Panruti Police in Cuddalore district of Tamil Nadu have arrested three persons, including the son of former bank employees, for cheating customers by running a fake branch of the State Bank of India in the locality.

Sachin Pilot reaches Delhi with 25 MLAs amid speculations of Rajasthan government collapse, Gehlot holds late night meetings

Ashok Gehlot claimed that the State government was stable and would continue to remain so despite all efforts to the contrary

Telangana: Man takes dead body of his coronavirus positive relative to graveyard in auto rickshaw, flouts safety norms

In the image that has now gone viral, neither the relative of the deceased nor the driver of autorickshaw can be seen wearing any protective gear.

Latest updates and important links about COVID-19 coronavirus

Live statistics and tracking of news related to COVID-19 coronavirus with focus on India.

Amitabh Bachchan and son Abhishek test positive for Coronavirus, admitted at Mumbai hospital

Megastar Amitabh Bachchan shifted to Nanavati Hospital after testing positive for Coronavirus

After claiming BJP supporters were trolling her in the guise of Shiv Sena supporters, comedian Agrima Joshua apologises to Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance and...

Stand-up comedian Agrima Joshua found herself in a lot of bother after a video clip of one of her performances went viral on social media.

Connect with us

235,713FansLike
404,458FollowersFollow
273,000SubscribersSubscribe