With Muslims, Jatavs rallying behind Opposition, BJP set to lose Kairana : Jan Ki Baat survey

After 10 accurate predictions in the past, the latest one being Karnataka, Jan Ki Baat is back with its predictions for upcoming elections in Kairana. According to estimates made by Jan Ki Baat regarding Lok Sabha by-election, RLD is expected to emerge as winners in Kairana in BJP-ruled Uttar Pradesh. In Kairana all the oppositions seem to be uniting against BJP, which might not be good news for the BJP.

Jan Ki Baat claims to conduct ground research on the basis of public opinion, ground reporting, and ‘fact analysis’. Their recent assertions of Karnataka elections had hit the bull’s eye.

In its report, Jan Ki Baat has discussed a few reasons, which might be the important takeaways from Kairana. It talks about Muslim vote share rallying behind the united opposition. Along with them, more than 50% Jats supporting the RLD, because of Ajit Singh campaigning and visiting each household personally. The Jatavs among Dalits too, are supporting the opposition, core reason behind them supporting them being:

  • Mayawati, hailing from a humble Jatav background has always got the support of the backward classes.
  • Bhim Army impact on youth.
  • The limited level of insecurities thriving within them.
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The few other reasons Jan Ki Baat emphasizes on are:

Core voters of BJP – Saini, Brahman, Baniya, Kashyap – have not voted in large numbers. Voting was delayed after the dysfunction of EVM, and this discouraged the core supporters to come back and vote in the sultry weather compared to Muslim voters.

Another important reason for less than expected BJP votes might be the discontent among the people as the vidhva (widow) pension and vriddha (elderly) pension has been stopped. While improvement in law and order and women security is accepted by people across caste and religion, the issue of sugarcane farmers not receiving payment on time could hurt the ruling BJP.

2019 in Uttar Pradesh will be how the other castes consolidate with BJP. BJP needs to have a vote share of 50% to repeat its performance of 2014.

The graph below shows the number analysis from the ground by Jan Ki Baat. The chart shows the population break up of the area :

Total voters voting in Kairana are 10.6 lakh approximately (taking into account the turnout post 5 pm) from which, community wise votes are estimated by Jan Ki Baat as follows:

Muslim voters average: (4,00,000)

RLD: (90%) – 3,60,000

BJP: (10%) – 40,000

Jat voters: (96,000)

RLD: (60%) – 57,400

BJP: (40%) – 38,600

SC :

1. Jatav voters: (1,05,000)

RLD: (80%) – 84,000

BJP: (20%) – 21,000

2. non Jatav voters: (58,500)

RLD: (40%) – 23,400

BJP:  (60%) – 35,100

Gurjar voters: (98,000)

RLD: (5%) – 5,000

BJP: (95%) – 93,000

Saini total: (60,000)

RLD: (8%) – 6,000

BJP: (92%) – 54,000

Brahmin-Baniya: (60,000)

BJP: (95%) – 57,000

RLD: (5%) – 3,000

OTHERS: (50,000)

BJP: (90%) – 45,000

RLD: (10%) – 5,000

THAKUR: (24,500)

BJP: (98%) – 24,000

RLD: (2%) – 500

Kashyap: (1,20,000)

RLD: (10%) – 20,000

BJP: (90%) – 1,00,000

Total (average):

RLD: 5.56 L

BJP: 5.2 L

The Jan Ki Baat estimates keep approximately 20-25 thousand buffer votes.

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