Saturday, January 23, 2021
Home Opinions Janata Parivar - Losers and Winners

Janata Parivar – Losers and Winners

This week finally saw the official announcement of the merger of various factions of the erstwhile Janata Dal viz., Janata Dal (United), Rasthriya Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (Socialist), Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) into a new Parivar, whose identity is not yet known. A Committee was announced which has the onus of finding a new name, flag and a symbol for the new entity. More information about this entity can be read here.

Let us try to understand the dynamics behind this merger. That the new entity will be filled with differences and big egos is a given. However, politically, who are the winners in this merger? How will the internal politics play out?

Janata Dal (Secular): Deve Gowda’s JDS is a waning force in Karnataka. With the old man in his last term as an MP, the responsibility in the Southern state will eventually move to his son H D Kumaraswamy. JDS itself is in a survival mode in the state. With influence only in the southern part of Karnataka, it will be a success if the party holds on in its bastion. None of the parivar’s North Indian leaders have any political sway in the minds of Kannadigas. So, as part of this merger, the number of incremental votes JDS will get due to the merger is: ZERO. In the same breath, number of incremental excited voters who would vote for Mulayam or Nitish, because Deve Gowda is part of the new entity: ZERO. In effect, this merger is a matter of no-gain, no-loss for JDS, in the medium term.

Indian National Lok Dal (INLD): With the Haryana assembly elections just over, where the party won only 19 of the 90 seats, there are no big stakes right now. The party cannot make a huge hue and cry on the national level too, as their 2 seats in Lok Sabha does not give them any leverage. With no immediate challenges or risks involved, what better way to be in news? INLD seems to have decided to play along for now and see how the experiment pans out. INLD don’t seem to have much sway over Jats in Western UP too, who recently deserted their all time favourite Ajit Singh.

Samajwadi Party (SP): With the anointment of Mulayam Singh Yadav as the Head of the new party, SP has wielded its influence within the group. This is also a tacit acceptance that UP is the critical state and SP will call the shots in the state. There were also reports that SP was skeptical about this merger, as they did not see the benefits from it. I share their skepticism and am wondering how this helps SP in 2017. SP already has influence in Muslim-Yadav communities. None of the other partners have any influence in UP – with the exception of, may be, Lalu in Eastern UP.

In the meantime, SP has also launched “Mission 2017” with the aim to winning UP assembly again. How the merger will impact the mission remains to be seen.

Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD): The new parivar will face its first big test in the Bihar assembly elections and the key players there will be Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav. Whats in the new party for Lalu and Nitish? Lalu, for one, has already announced that his son will take over the reigns from him. Reigns of what – RJD? or Bihar unit of the new parivar?  With the merger, RJD will cease to exist and Nitish will be the boss of Bihar unit. The only calculation of Lalu seems to be to get to power in Bihar and the dynamics can be worked out later. However, with the merger, Lalu had to swallow his ego and accept that Nitish is the bigger fish in Bihar.

Nitish seems to be winner of this merger. He has formed a coalition that can counter BJP’s might and if Congress joins them in some sort of pre-poll alliance, NDA will have a tough fight in its hands. If the parivar wins, Nitish will be “King of Parivar” and the SP government in UP will also get a shot in its arm. Lalu’s future will then depend on number of candidates from his camp who manage to win. But, if BJP gains wins big or gains absolute majority, its curtains to Nitish Kumar’s political career and Lalu’s camp may live to fight another day. It is also certain that UP will face the repercussions, more than in the pre-merger scenario. Mulayam will have to bear the blame of the defeat, despite his limited influence in Bihar. Why did he put himself in this situation? Is the group confident of doing well in Bihar?

All one can say is that, Bihar is where most action will be later this year. Nitish has won the first round amongst his partners and now needs to win the war against Amit Shah. With PM Modi changing the grammar of elections with “development” as the prime agenda, is the parivar ready to counter him on this turf. Or will they go back to the Mandal politics of 90s. Or will we see a new grammar written in the coming days?

  Support Us  

Whether NDTV or 'The Wire', they never have to worry about funds. In name of saving democracy, they get money from various sources. We need your support to fight them. Please contribute whatever you can afford

Ullas
Global Citizen, Kannada roots, Indian values, Man United spirit, Fiscal conservative

 

Related Articles

Trending now

Watch: Taking offence at Jai Shree Ram slogans, Mamata Banerjee walks off stage even as PM Modi and Bengal Governor look on

Mamata Banerjee who was sharing the stage with PM Modi, lamented "being disrespected" because she heard Jai Shree Ram slogans

Noida, Ghaziabad, Prayagraj, Kanpur: Hoax bomb threats ahead of Republic Day keep Uttar Pradesh police on tenterhooks

Fear and panic has the state of Uttar Pradesh in its grips after at least six hoax bomb threats were reported from Noida, Ghaziabad, Allahabad and Kanpur

How Congress spread lies about a woman being beaten up by goons in ‘lawless UP’ while the police did nothing: Read what really happened

Recently, a video of a pleading lady requesting UP Police officers to save her from two assailants was doing the rounds on the internet.

Stripped, hung upside down, one other beaten with pipe and still in their custody: 5 big revelations by ‘Masked Man’ Yogesh about farmer leaders

On Saturday, however, masked man Yogesh has made revelations that would give everyone cause for immense concern.

Farmers threatened to kill if Yogesh didn’t lie and implicate Haryana police, said have already killed others: Watch exclusive confession of ‘masked man’

A person identified as Yogesh, who was detained by the Haryana police on Friday said the farmers at Singhu border threatened to kill him

Islamists attack IAS-turned-Islamist-turned-politician Shah Faesal after he takes u-turn to praise Modi’s vaccine diplomacy

Earlier, it was reported that Shah Faesal has been informed by authorities that his resignation has not been accepted.

Recently Popular

#BanSportsTak: Netizens angry after India Today owned sports channel claims Virat Kohli suffers from ‘disorder’

"It is a disorder for a captain to (be as aggressive as Virat Kohli). It might be acceptable for a player to have this aggression (but nor for a captain)," the journalist claimed.

Rajdeep Sardesai ‘baffled’ by India Today survey that shows Modi govt winning a sweeping majority if elections held today: Details

Taking to Twitter, Sardesai said that he was 'baffled' to see that despite the economic hardships resulted by the pandemic, Indians still love the Modi government.

How Brazil thanked India for sending Coronavirus vaccine doses: Pawan Putra Hanuman

President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, has expressed his gratitude towards India and Prime Minister Modi for vaccine exports from our country.

Left-wing fury at Vir Sanghvi shows just how much ‘liberals’ hate Hindus

Vir Sanghvi published a column about the ‘shameful persecution’ of Munawar Faruqui and the ‘bogus controversy’ around Tandav

Gujarat Forest Dept to take legal action against Christian Evangelist Paul Dhinakaran over unauthorised use of the department’s logo

Website of Paul Dhinakaran claims of collaborating with the Gujarat Forest Department, a claim junked by the latter

‘I allow you housewives to have extra-marital affair with man of your choice’: Video of Mamata Banerjee’s ‘progressive’ speech goes viral

Mamata Banerjee says she is so "flexible" that she has given permission to housewives to have extra-marital affairs
- Advertisement -

 

Netizens call out the hypocrisy of Star Wars on ‘bullying’ and ‘racism’ after it comes out in support of liberal actress but ignores bullying...

Despite the vitriolic and racist comments of Krystina Arielle, Star Wars somehow decided to cut her some slack.

The life and times of Vibhor Anand: A clown, fraud or simply deranged? The story of his descent into wild conspiracy theories

Vibhor Anand has spread bizarre conspiracy theories about the death of Sushant Singh Rajput and was arrested for it.

Legendary talk show host Larry King dies in Los Angeles weeks after being hospitalised for Covid-19

Larry King passed away on Saturday at age 87 at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, announced his company Ora Media

Watch: Taking offence at Jai Shree Ram slogans, Mamata Banerjee walks off stage even as PM Modi and Bengal Governor look on

Mamata Banerjee who was sharing the stage with PM Modi, lamented "being disrespected" because she heard Jai Shree Ram slogans

Noida, Ghaziabad, Prayagraj, Kanpur: Hoax bomb threats ahead of Republic Day keep Uttar Pradesh police on tenterhooks

Fear and panic has the state of Uttar Pradesh in its grips after at least six hoax bomb threats were reported from Noida, Ghaziabad, Allahabad and Kanpur

‘Journalist’ Uday Rana uses filthy language sitting next to a woman, then ‘complains’ about the woman not talking to him

'Journalist' Uday Rana whines that a lady on the fight with him did not acknowledge his "colourful" conversations

Even as ‘masked man’ Yogesh says he was tortured by farmers to lie about murder plot, Rakesh Tikait blames central govt

The Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) spokesperson Rakesh Tikait also alleged that a conspiracy has been hatched to kill four of them and create disturbances during their tractor rally.

AAP MLA Somnath Bharti sentenced to 2 years in jail for assaulting AIIMS staff, soon gets bail from High Court

A Delhi Court had found AAP MLA Somnath Bharti guilty of manhandling security personnel at the AIIMS and sentenced him thereof

‘Liberals’ propagate scripted drama of ‘plot to murder farmers’ even as ‘masked man’ says he was tortured by farmer leaders to lie

A raft of liberals took to social media websites to spread the lies peddled by the masked man, now identified as Yogesh Singh

How Congress spread lies about a woman being beaten up by goons in ‘lawless UP’ while the police did nothing: Read what really happened

Recently, a video of a pleading lady requesting UP Police officers to save her from two assailants was doing the rounds on the internet.

Connect with us

245,563FansLike
496,912FollowersFollow
22,900SubscribersSubscribe