This Uttar Pradesh election is BJP’s to lose

Despite the SP-Congress alliance about which the whole media is going gaga over, BJP still has the edge over others in the upcoming assembly elections. Contrary to what the media is projecting on the vote-share math based on 2012 elections, the vote-share to really look at is 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which gave a sweeping victory to BJP that resulted in BJP alone getting 71 out of 80 seats (that translate to more than 300 assembly seats) and 2 of Apna Dal, its partner in NDA.

According to a survey, BJP had received more than 75% of the Brahmin and upper caste votes, and more than 50% of OBC votes, plus a 20% of Jatavs and Dalit vote means, there was a high consolidation of Hindu votes across the board. They even managed to get 10% of Muslim votes in 2014, which anyway was a bonus. This resulted in a staggering 42% of the total vote-share, leaving SP and BSP at almost half of this. Congress was practically decimated.

This was almost the same case in Bihar, which is why Nitish and Lalu allied together which upset the vote-share math in 2015 Assembly elections. If you analyse the Bihar elections, there is no way BJP would have been able to conquer the total vote-share of JD(U), RJD and Congress put together of what they achieved in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Which is why, after trying to prop Priyanka Gandhi as the “Brahmin” face of Congress and ending up with Sheila Dixit, the wily Prashant Kishor tried the Bihar Mahagatbandhan model in UP too, perhaps prodded by Lalu and Nitish themselves to make SP come to the table this time.

- Advertisement - - Article resumes -

But it is clear, the SP-Congress alliance in itself is a partial admission of SP’s own failure to win the elections on its own, and total admission of Congress having no chance at all if it plays the game by itself. So all that they are trying to do is to keep Muslim votes together instead of getting split, but what is being missed is, BSP too enjoy substantial share of Muslim votes, and BJP too had a 10% share of Muslim votes, and Muslims in general are realising they are being used only as vote-bank by such secular parties.

Therefore, unless the Mahagatbandhan is between BSP and SP (with or without Congress), the numbers really don’t add up to make a big upset for BJP yet. Assuming BJP retains most of the upper caste votes that it got in 2014 and manages to retain half of the OBC and Jatav votes, it would still be good at above 30% of the vote share which is enough for it to cross the line in a three cornered fight.

Granted, the drivers for state assembly elections are not the same as for Parliamentary elections and it is two years down the lane since Modi wave was at its peak in 2014, and also the assembly bye-election results post 2014 were in SP’s favour. Besides, Akhilesh Yadav has somehow managed to first pull a victim card in the family drama and then emerging as a fighting hero and looking good as the one to take over SP totally from Mulayam’s grip which could possibly give him an edge to fight the anti-incumbency.

But if he was so confident that way, he needn’t have agreed to make this alliance with Congress in the first place. It is not as if, he was making an alliance like in Bihar where principal opposition parties ganged up against Modi. Mayawati is no push-over but a strong contender herself as she had trounced SP in 2007. Though BSP didn’t get a single seat in 2014 general elections, their vote share is not small. They had polled as much votes as Mamata’s TMC or Jayalalitha’s AIADMK did in Bengal and Tamilnadu that got them 34 and 37 seats each respectively. And she fielded the maximum Muslim candidates in the election, more than SP or Congress, and is sure to take some Muslim votes this time as well. Therefore without BSP in the alliance, it isn’t as good as the Mahagatbandhan in Bihar.

Having said that, what could definitely go against BJP are the following.

They are still banking on Modi to win elections instead of a strong local leader who could be their CM face. This was their undoing in Bihar too. In UP, the problem is of plenty and the high conflict of priorities and interests among its popular leaders between Hindutva, Ram temple, Development and such. Also the infighting cannot be ruled out due to this and many are waiting and wanting to see Modi fail in UP too to build their own aspirations.

It is also not clear what are the true repercussions of demonetisation in rural Uttar Pradesh and how much the people have welcomed this there, or how cut up the people there are due to the pains caused due to it. Besides, others like AAP have pledged to campaign against BJP though they are not directly contesting the elections, and not to forget the mainstream media that appears to be backing Akhilesh Yadav 2.0

Hence Amit Shah and Om Mathur have their task cut out to ensure what was achieved in 2014 is not allowed to slip away, as on paper it is still a BJP’s election to lose.


Share This Post and Support:
We need your support to survive in the media industry. Please consider paying us for the content we produce:

To know more about these payments, please click here.


Most read articles recently

NC Lok Sabha candidate Akbar Lone begins a rally with ‘Pakistan Zindabad’, says will abuse anyone who abuses Pakistan

Akbar Lone, NC Lok Sabha candidate for Baramulla, said that the country across is a Muslim country and abusing Pakistan would mean he is abusing himself

Actor R Madhavan offers support to PM Modi to urge voters to cast votes in elections, gets trolled by ‘liberals’

Because of their sheer bitterness for Modi, these cynics are in no mood to spare anyone who comes out in support of Modi
Malala has maintained a conspicuous silence over atrocities on Hindu girls in her country

Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala’s silence on abduction and forceful conversion of two Hindu girls is deafening

Malala, who often preaches the world about feminist adventures and jumps in to display her intellect over human rights issues especially against women across the world seems to have not found her voice to condemn the bigotry of Pakistanis as she could face severe backlash within her own country.

Where is the money? Rahul Gandhi’s promise is going to cost a whopping Rs 3.60 lakh crore a year, 13% of union budget

Minimum Income Guarantee Scheme of Congress party ensures monthly income of Rs 12,000 for 20% of India's population
Owner of AAP propaganda blog agitated when Sushma Swaraj stands up for two underage Hindu girls

AAP propaganda site owner gets angry after India expresses concerns over atrocities against Hindus in Pakistan

Sushma Swaraj's move to seek details of the Incident had agitated quite a few people in Pakistan, including their Information and Broadcasting minister Ch Fawad Hussain, who saw it as an intervention in Pakistan's internal matters.

Uttar Pradesh: Congress leader Rashid Alvi withdraws candidature from Amroha because ‘he did not want to lose’

According to some reports Rashid Alvi was reluctant to contest from the Amroha seat against the strong candidates of the BJP and the BSP.

After ‘Modi removed your name from voter list’, AAP allegedly calls up people pretending to be radio channel

'Who will you vote for?' People speculate if Aam Aadmi Party call centre is up to new trick again
Chandrababu Naidu govt accused of misusing temple funds, allocates Rs 5 crores for mosque repairs and Iftaar parties

Chandrababu Naidu calls PM Modi a ‘demon’, JDS MLA wants to ‘crush jaws’ of Modi supporters: Politics in India reaches a new low

Crush the jaws of those who come and shout 'Modi, Modi': JDS MLA Shivaling Gowda said while addressing a public gathering
Pakistani Hindus plight

Why can’t Pakistani Hindus go to Europe or America as refugees if Syrians and Rohingyas can?

Countries like Canada and Sweden welcome refugees who are persecuted, but why do Pakistan Hindus fail to get this helping hand?

Latest articles

Connect with us

149,152FansLike
120,737FollowersFollow
31,509SubscribersSubscribe

Don't miss these


Share This Post and Support: