Thursday, September 24, 2020
Home Politics This Uttar Pradesh election is BJP's to lose

This Uttar Pradesh election is BJP’s to lose

Despite the SP-Congress alliance about which the whole media is going gaga over, BJP still has the edge over others in the upcoming assembly elections. Contrary to what the media is projecting on the vote-share math based on 2012 elections, the vote-share to really look at is 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which gave a sweeping victory to BJP that resulted in BJP alone getting 71 out of 80 seats (that translate to more than 300 assembly seats) and 2 of Apna Dal, its partner in NDA.

According to a survey, BJP had received more than 75% of the Brahmin and upper caste votes, and more than 50% of OBC votes, plus a 20% of Jatavs and Dalit vote means, there was a high consolidation of Hindu votes across the board. They even managed to get 10% of Muslim votes in 2014, which anyway was a bonus. This resulted in a staggering 42% of the total vote-share, leaving SP and BSP at almost half of this. Congress was practically decimated.

This was almost the same case in Bihar, which is why Nitish and Lalu allied together which upset the vote-share math in 2015 Assembly elections. If you analyse the Bihar elections, there is no way BJP would have been able to conquer the total vote-share of JD(U), RJD and Congress put together of what they achieved in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Which is why, after trying to prop Priyanka Gandhi as the “Brahmin” face of Congress and ending up with Sheila Dixit, the wily Prashant Kishor tried the Bihar Mahagatbandhan model in UP too, perhaps prodded by Lalu and Nitish themselves to make SP come to the table this time.

But it is clear, the SP-Congress alliance in itself is a partial admission of SP’s own failure to win the elections on its own, and total admission of Congress having no chance at all if it plays the game by itself. So all that they are trying to do is to keep Muslim votes together instead of getting split, but what is being missed is, BSP too enjoy substantial share of Muslim votes, and BJP too had a 10% share of Muslim votes, and Muslims in general are realising they are being used only as vote-bank by such secular parties.

- Advertisement -

Therefore, unless the Mahagatbandhan is between BSP and SP (with or without Congress), the numbers really don’t add up to make a big upset for BJP yet. Assuming BJP retains most of the upper caste votes that it got in 2014 and manages to retain half of the OBC and Jatav votes, it would still be good at above 30% of the vote share which is enough for it to cross the line in a three cornered fight.

Granted, the drivers for state assembly elections are not the same as for Parliamentary elections and it is two years down the lane since Modi wave was at its peak in 2014, and also the assembly bye-election results post 2014 were in SP’s favour. Besides, Akhilesh Yadav has somehow managed to first pull a victim card in the family drama and then emerging as a fighting hero and looking good as the one to take over SP totally from Mulayam’s grip which could possibly give him an edge to fight the anti-incumbency.

But if he was so confident that way, he needn’t have agreed to make this alliance with Congress in the first place. It is not as if, he was making an alliance like in Bihar where principal opposition parties ganged up against Modi. Mayawati is no push-over but a strong contender herself as she had trounced SP in 2007. Though BSP didn’t get a single seat in 2014 general elections, their vote share is not small. They had polled as much votes as Mamata’s TMC or Jayalalitha’s AIADMK did in Bengal and Tamilnadu that got them 34 and 37 seats each respectively. And she fielded the maximum Muslim candidates in the election, more than SP or Congress, and is sure to take some Muslim votes this time as well. Therefore without BSP in the alliance, it isn’t as good as the Mahagatbandhan in Bihar.

Having said that, what could definitely go against BJP are the following.

They are still banking on Modi to win elections instead of a strong local leader who could be their CM face. This was their undoing in Bihar too. In UP, the problem is of plenty and the high conflict of priorities and interests among its popular leaders between Hindutva, Ram temple, Development and such. Also the infighting cannot be ruled out due to this and many are waiting and wanting to see Modi fail in UP too to build their own aspirations.

It is also not clear what are the true repercussions of demonetisation in rural Uttar Pradesh and how much the people have welcomed this there, or how cut up the people there are due to the pains caused due to it. Besides, others like AAP have pledged to campaign against BJP though they are not directly contesting the elections, and not to forget the mainstream media that appears to be backing Akhilesh Yadav 2.0

Hence Amit Shah and Om Mathur have their task cut out to ensure what was achieved in 2014 is not allowed to slip away, as on paper it is still a BJP’s election to lose.

  Support Us  

Whether NDTV or 'The Wire', they never have to worry about funds. In name of saving democracy, they get money from various sources. We need your support to fight them. Please contribute whatever you can afford

Related Articles

Trending now

Monsoon session of Lok Sabha concludes, becomes the most productive session in the history with productivity rate of 167%

September 20 was the most productive day of the current session 17th Lok Sabha with 234 per cent of productivity.

Rana Ayyub lies again, this time while writing an ode to the old lady protestor at Shaheen Bagh for Time’s 100 most influential people...

Rana has written that Shaheen Bagh protestor 'Bilkis' was sitting to protest against the CAA that could "block Muslims from citizenship".

Deepika Padukone, Sara Ali Khan, three others summoned by NCB in Bollywood drug probe

Deepika’s name had emerged in the drug abuse probe earlier this week after her WhatsApp conversations went viral.

BJP govt must be careful about ecosystem trying to engineer price rises

BJP government needs to watch out about what comes next. The so called “age of controls” may be over, but the mentality of that era might not be.

No coercive step against Facebook exec for ‘role’ in Delhi riots, says Delhi Assembly panel after SC sends notice

Dehi Assembly panel had sent summons to Facebook India head Atul Mohan alleging ‘deliberate inaction’ by the social media giant against alleged hate speech that ‘culminated in the Delhi riots’

Complaint filed against William Dalrymple for flouting visa norms, trying to interfere in India’s internal affairs

Supreme Court advocate and author Monika Arora has stated that William Dalrymple has violated visa norms by trying to interfere in India's democratic process and trample on her freedom of expression.

Recently Popular

KWAN representative told me that I need to attend Karan Johar Parties to make a comeback to movies: Suchitra Krishnamoorthi

One of the main things is that you need to be seen at Karan Johar's parties, KWAN representative had told Suchitra Krishnamoorthi

‘Are your breasts real? Can I touch?’ Actress Sherlyn Chopra accuses KWAN talent agency co-founder of sexual misconduct

Bollywood actress Sherlyn Chopra on Tuesday took to Twitter to call out sexual misconduct of KWAN talent agency co-founder Anirban Blah.

Nikhil Dwivedi, filmmaker and director of talent agency owned by Salman Khan, claims latter did not buy stakes in KWAN. Read details

Uniworld Big Talent (UBT) owned by Salman Khan, holds major stakes in Big Bang Media Venture, the holding company which owns KWAN.

Casting director of Rhea Chakraborty’s debut film ‘Jalebi’ among 10 Bollywood personalities to have died in the past few months. Read the details here

A post containing the list of recent deaths of Bollywood celebs and the alleged reasons behind their deaths is being widely shared.

Goa Police arrests actress Poonam Pandey’s husband Sam Ahmed Bombay for assaulting and molesting her

Born and brought up in United Arab Emirates, Sam is an ad-filmmaker and a producer. He had done projects with celebrities like Akshay Kumar, Ranbir Kapoor and Deepika Padukone amongst others.

Mumbai Police made actress Payal Ghosh wait till 2 AM, did not file sexual assault complaint against Anurag Kashyap: Reports

The BMC declared her society a containment zone to prevent the actress from filing a complaint.

Monsoon session of Lok Sabha concludes, becomes the most productive session in the history with productivity rate of 167%

September 20 was the most productive day of the current session 17th Lok Sabha with 234 per cent of productivity.

Former Amnesty India head Aakar Patel arrested for tweets on PM Narendra Modi, BJP-RSS and Ghanchi caste; released on bail

Aakar Patel was arrested by Surat Police on a complaint filed by BJP MLA from Surat West constituency Purnesh Modi

Minister of State for Railways Suresh Angadi succumbs to Coronavirus

Minister of State for Railways Suresh Angadi passed away at the AIIMS in New Delhi, he had tested positive for Coronavirys on 11 Septemter

Properties made available for sale or rent only to Muslims appear on several real estate portals

Even in a cosmopolitan city such as Mumbai, bigoted homeowners actively discriminate between tenants.

KWAN representative told me that I need to attend Karan Johar Parties to make a comeback to movies: Suchitra Krishnamoorthi

One of the main things is that you need to be seen at Karan Johar's parties, KWAN representative had told Suchitra Krishnamoorthi

CBI carries out multiple raids along India-Bangladesh border; BSF officer and 3 others booked in illegal cattle trade case

A BSF officer along with 3 others booked by the CBI in connection with the illegal cattle trade along India-Bangladesh border

Pakistan plans to turn illegally occupied Gilgit-Baltistan into a province; the decision to benefit China and CPEC

Pakistan government have received support from all parties to convert Gilgit Baltistan into a full province of the country

Rana Ayyub lies again, this time while writing an ode to the old lady protestor at Shaheen Bagh for Time’s 100 most influential people...

Rana has written that Shaheen Bagh protestor 'Bilkis' was sitting to protest against the CAA that could "block Muslims from citizenship".

Nepali Youths protest outside the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu against Chinese construction on Nepali territory in Humla

China has reportedly constructed multiple buildings in the Humla region of Nepal and the Chinese troops are staying in them.

Kerala govt to take action against media houses alleging defamatory reports on state secretariat fire incident

Apart from filing case under CrPC, Kerala govt will also complain against media with the Press Council alleging defaming reports

Connect with us

244,181FansLike
454,729FollowersFollow
16,700SubscribersSubscribe