The BJP is all set to return to power in Uttar Pradesh, the exit polls to the recently concluded 2022 assembly elections have predicted. Besides, the Aam Aadmi Party is poised to register a landslide victory in Punjab, defeating the incumbent Congress party in the state.
The last phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections was completed on March 7, 2022. The media houses and poll agencies have released the exit polls for all the five poll-bound states. The exit polls were aired after the seventh phase of UP elections was officially over on Monday.
The results published by exit polls reveal that BJP might be marginally ahead in Goa assembly elections while in Uttarakhand it might be facing tough headwinds from the Congress party. In Manipur, most exit polls suggest BJP will return to power comfortably.
Notably, as per the regulations of the Election Commission, the news and poll agencies are not allowed to release any data of the exit polls before the last phase of the elections is over. So in case, multiple states go for polling, the media houses have to wait till the last phase of the elections, even if some of the states had polls done weeks ago.
This time, the elections were done in Uttar Pradesh, the population-wise largest state of India, in seven phases. While polling for Goa, Punjab and Uttarakhand Assembly Elections were done in single-phase, in the case of Manipur, the polling was done in two phases.
Uttar Pradesh
The parties or alliances that are in the race for UP Assembly elections are National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Congress+, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The exit polls by all organisations predict BJP returning to power in Uttar Pradesh. While Jan Ki Baat polls predict 222-260 seats for BJP, the P-Marq claims BJP will win 240 seats. The TV9 Bharatvarsh has been conservative in its prediction, stating that the Yogi Adityanath will return to power by polling 211-225 seats.
The Congress party, which focused its poll campaign to woo women in Uttar Pradesh, has not been able to create an impact with the UP voters. All exit polls forecast dismal performance by the Congress party, pushing it to the fourth position, behind BJP, SP and BSP. They have predicted that Congress would be restricted to within single-seat figures.
| Exit Poll | BJP+ | Congress+ | SP+ | BSP | Others |
| P-Marq | 240 | 4 | 140 | 17 | 2 |
| ABP-CVoter | 228-244 | 4-8 | 132-148 | 13-21 | 2-6 |
| TV9 Bharatvarsh | 211-225 | 4-6 | 146-160 | 14-24 | 00 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 222-260 | 1-3 | 135-165 | 4-9 | 3-4 |
| India Today-Axis | 288-326 | 1-3 | 71-101 | 3-9 | 2-3 |
| Chanakya | 275-313 | 0-2 | 86-124 | — | 0-2 |
Goa
In Goa BJP, Congress+, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), and National Congress Party+ (NCP) are in the fray. The incumbent BJP is facing tough headwinds from a reinvigorated Congress, but it will still be the largest party in the assembly elections, a majority of exit polls numbers reveal. Congress is marginally behind the BJP in Goa, which goes to show that it will be a close contest and might require astute political manoeuvrings to form government in the state.
| Exit Poll | BJP | Congress+ | AAP | TMC+ | MGP+ | Others |
| P-Marq | 13-17 | 13-17 | 2-6 | 2-4 | — | 0-4 |
| ABP-CVoter | 13-17 | 12-16 | 1-5 | — | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| TV9 Bharatvarsh | 11-19 | 11-13 | 1-4 | — | — | 2-7 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 13-19 | 14-19 | 3-5 | — | — | 1-3 |
| India Today-Axis | 14-18 | 15-20 | — | 2-5 | — | 0-4 |
| Chanakya |
Punjab
In Punjab, all exit polls predict a landslide victor for Aam Aadmi Party, with the Chanakya giving a whopping 111 seats to the party led by Arvind Kejriwal out of the total 117 assembly seats that went to polls. Congress is the second-largest party, followed by SAD, according to exit poll results.
| Exit Poll | BJP+ | Congress+ | AAP | SAD+ | Others |
| P-Marq | 1-3 | 23-31 | 62-70 | 16-24 | 1-3 |
| ABP-CVoter | 7-13 | 22-28 | 51-61 | 20-26 | 1-5 |
| TV9 Bharatvarsh | 1-6 | 24-29 | 56-61 | 22-26 | 0-3 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 3-7 | 18-31 | 60-84 | 12-19 | 0 |
| India Today-Axis | 1-4 | 19-31 | 76-90 | 7-11 | 0-2 |
| Chanakya | 0-2 | 3-17 | 89-111 | 1-11 | 0-1 |
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand could throw unpredictable results in the recently concluded assembly elections. While some exit polls claim BJP might narrowly scrape by to form a government in the state, others say Congress might be in for an upset and could turn the tables to stake their claim on the government.
| Exit Poll | BJP+ | Congress+ | AAP | Others |
| P-Marq | 35-39 | 28-34 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| ABP-CVoter | 26-32 | 32-38 | 0-2 | 3-7 |
| TV9 Bharatvarsh | 31-33 | 33-35 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 32-41 | 27-35 | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| India Today-Axis | 36-46 | 20-30 | 2-4 | 2-5 |
| Chanakya | 37-50 | 17-31 | — | 0-6 |
Manipur
In the case of Manipur, NDA, Manipur Progressive Secular Alliance (MPSA), Naga People’s Front (NPA), and National People’s Party (NPP) are in the race, along with the BJP and Congress. The BJP is set to emerge as the largest party in Manipur, according to exit poll results announced by P-Marq and Jan Ki Baat. Out of the total 60 seats, of which 31 seats are needed to form government, the P-Marq exit poll suggest that BJP might be on borderline to rack up the desired number, failing which it might have to seek alliance with either NPP or NPF. The Congress is predicted to bag 10-17 seats.
| Exit Poll | BJP | Congress | NPP+ | NPF+ | Others |
| P-Marq | 27-31 | 11-17 | 6-10 | 2-6 | 3-7 |
| ABP-CVoter | 23-27 | 12-16 | 10-14 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| TV9 Bharatvarsh | |||||
| Jan Ki Baat | 23-28 | 10-14 | 7-8 | 5-8 | 8-9 |
| India Today-Axis | 33-43 | 4-8 | — | — | 10-23 |
| Chanakya |
The results for the Assembly elections in all five states will be announced on March 10, 2022.
Note: The results for some exit polls are yet to come. They will be updated as and when they arrive.
