Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist known as “Dr Doom” for warning about the 2008 Global Financial Crisis before it struck, has a decidedly upbeat forecast for India. However, it comes with a sharp caveat.
In an interview with The Economic Times, Roubini stated, “India is a major success story with the potential to become an even bigger one.” He explained that, just like in past decades, it was about China. The next few decades could be about India. He cited India’s large domestic market, talent pool, macroeconomic fundamentals and commitment to opening up to the world; with further reforms, he believes potential growth could exceed 8%.
He also discussed India-US relations and conveyed, ‘India is a huge and rising economy and is aligned with many of the objectives of the US and the West…Rationality will prevail.” He further explained that economic and market pressure will push Washington towards a more constructive trade relationship with New Delhi. According to him, US tariffs will fall further, around 9%.
Roubini also argued that geopolitical shifts favour India. “Geopolitics benefits India because China is increasingly considered risky,” Roubini said, pointing to nearshoring and friendshoring as manufacturers diversify away from China. He also pushed for India to accelerate its growth, advocating for a 9% rate “to ensure that young people can secure good jobs.”
Roubini expressed concern that AI will reshape both manual and cognitive occupations, making it harder for India to rely on population growth alone as an economic advantage. He added that India needed to create jobs in manufacturing on a large scale, especially in electronics, automobiles, textiles and their supply chains.
His statement came after the Indian economy expanded 7.8% in the first quarter of 2026-27, with the Reserve Bank of India projecting 7.1% growth for fiscal 2027 and the IMF forecasting 7% for 2026 and 2027.
How Roubini saw the 2008 crisis coming
Roubini earned the “Dr Doom” nickname after he warned about the 2008 global financial crisis in advance, during a speech at the IMF in 2006.
He predicted that the housing bubble’s burst would freeze mortgage-backed securities, collapse major banks and mortgage lenders, and spark a severe global recession through highly interconnected international financial markets. When the crisis erupted in 2008, his warning was vindicated with remarkable precision and the nickname stuck.
Now, the economist who saw the last crash coming is betting that the next big global growth story could be India, provided it grows fast enough to put its young workforce to work.
