Friday, April 10, 2020
Home Politics How will Delhi vote? Some findings of our Contest

How will Delhi vote? Some findings of our Contest

Also Read

OpIndia Staffhttps://www.opindia.com
Staff reporter at OpIndia

We started a Contest on 22nd January 2015, where in people from all over the world, could predict the results of the Delhi Assembly elections. The contest ended yesterday at 8pm, and now we wait for the results to see who got the the predictions right. Till then we decided to do some number crunching with the entries. Remember this is NOT an opinion of Delhi voters, but it is the opinion of people around the world, trying to guess how Delhi will vote. The analysis will not be affected by how the parties are campaigning in Delhi, but it will be affected by how the Media is covering it and reporting it. Also note that this is NOT a scientific survey. It is only a collection of responses.

Firstly, we saw that over almost two-thirds i.e. 67% of the respondents felt that BJP would get the majority in this election. Only 17% felt that AAP would get a majority in these election. The balance 16% felt that Delhi voters would throw up a hung assembly. It is amusing to note that 2 people felt that Congress will get a majority.

If one takes an average of all the responses, then the most likely outcome of Delhi Elections seems to be BJP getting a majority with 37 seats, AAP coming second with 26 seats, Congress getting 6 seats and others making up 2 seats. A similar simple average of all the Opinion Polls conducted till date also throws up similar numbers, with BJP getting 35 seats, AAP getting 30 seats, Congress getting 5 seats and others getting 1 seat.

- article continues after ad - - article resumes -

We also decided to track the views of people over time, taking daily averages of seats predicted for each party. Plotted on a graph, it looks like this:

chart

The singular most interesting phenomenon occurred on 28th January, which is the only time the average of the days predictions showed that more people felt AAP would get more seats than BJP. What could have happened on 28th January for this trend to change course so dramatically? Remember, we are looking for media events which could have influenced people all over the world. 28th January happens to be the day when the Ravish Kumar – Kiran Bedi interview was put up by NDTV! Although Ravish did not really do a major expose, and he used some underhand methods, its seems the interview affected people’s opinion and made them think maybe Delhi wont go BJP’s way. Also most of our entries come from Social Media users and the Interview was hyped as a major loss of face for Bedi on Social Media.

Another interesting thing is, contrary to Opinion Polls conducted by News channels, the opinions of our users did not drastically change from 22nd January till 6th of February. There is a very minor change in the seat predictions of each of the parties. If anything, AAP has lost a bit of ground from where it started.

All said and done, these opinions don’t matter much. The ones which do will be out on 10th February. Till then we have to make do with Opinion Polls and Exit Polls.

- Support OpIndia -
Support OpIndia by making a monetary contribution

Trending now

OpIndia Staffhttps://www.opindia.com
Staff reporter at OpIndia

Latest News

How Islamists joined hands with a UAE ‘journalist’ to ensure that an Indian man faces jail for mocking TikTok users claiming Namaz can keep...

A Dubai based Indian ex-pat Rakesh Kitturmath had posted a comment mocking deluded Muslim TikTok users who claim that offering namaz 5-times a day is enough to stop the coronavirus pandemic.

Concerns over fudging data after Kolkata Municipal Corporation lists 10 deaths due to Wuhan Coronavirus while state govt records only 5

Unlike other states which are attributing the cause of death to the Wuhan Coronavirus in case the deceased has tested positive for the virus, the West Bengal government has set up an 'expert committee' to determine the cause of death after going through the test results, medical history and other documents of the deceased.

Mumbai lockdown: Speeding biker drags on-duty policeman posted at a checkpoint, one Sheikh Naeem arrested

Despite the police team's order, Naeem suddenly increased his speed further and tried to ride away. Assistant Inspector Vijendra Dhurat managed to grab a hold of the bike’s rear handle and was dragged for over 25 feet.

Madhubani: To protect Suleiman and others, accused of murdering a Hindu woman, village head Fakre Alam tries to get autopsy report changed

Madhubani: Surendra Mandal, the son of deceased Kaili Devi revealed how the accused were being protected by the village Sarpanch (head) Fakre Alam and local RJD MLA Fayaz Ahmed.

Prayagraj: Police book university professor Mohammad Shahid for concealing information about attending Tablighi Jamaat event in Delhi

The varsity administration may also initiate action under against Prof Shahid for not following the health protocol and risking lives

Bhagalpur, Bihar: Muslim youth pelt stones and open fire at Police after being asked to go home on Shab-e-Barat

Stones were pelted at the Police at Bhagalpur in Bihar when they attempted to prevent Muslims from gathering in large numbers on the occasion of Shab-e-Barat in the wake of the Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic.

Recently Popular

Did you know that the Prime Minister’s National Relief Fund had the President of Congress party in its managing committee

After PM Modi launched PM CARES Fund, a lot has been discussed about similarities and differences between PM CARES Fund and PMNRF

As India fights Wuhan Coronavirus, here is a list of prominent Hindu Temples and religious leaders helping India through donations and welfare

In the wake of the Coronavirus crisis, numerous Hindu temples have come forward to contribute generously, both in terms of food and welfare, to help the country.

Tablighi Jamaat had planned a ‘fidayeen’ attack on India by spreading the deadly coronavirus: UP Shia Waqf Board chief Waseem Rizvi

Rizvi also said that there is a distinct possibility of radical Islamist Zakir Naik being involved in Tablighi Jamaat conspiracy to spread coronavirus in the country.

Yes, Nandita Das, there are two Indias that exist – one where the labourers live and the other, from where your father was evicted

About how the Coronavirus lockdown has impacted migrant labourers, Nandita Das said that there exists two Indias

Islamists attack Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal after he asks them to stay at home on Shab-e-Baraat

AAP Supremo took to social media to request Muslims to stay at home for Shab-e-Baraat, which is being celebrated on the intervening night of 8th and 9th April.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Each morning, get an email to keep updated with all the news, opinions and analysis published by OpIndia.

Connect with us

218,267FansLike
278,208FollowersFollow
215,000SubscribersSubscribe
Advertisements