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COVID-19 crisis: Several cities achieve peak, downward trajectory noticed in seven-day data: Experts urge to follow guidelines

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India has so far reported 1,99,35,471 Covid-19 cases. There are 34,18,859 active cases in the country. A total of 1,62,88,989 have been cured and discharged.

Amidst rising cases of Covid-19 in the country, the seven-day data shows some positive signs as the number of new cases is decreasing in many cities. According to the data shared by Professor Maninder Agrawal on Twitter based on SUTRA, an approach to modelling pandemics with asymptomatic patients, and applications to covid-19, Maharashtra’s Mumbai, Pune and Uttar Pradesh’s Lucknow, Prayagraj, Kanpur, and Varanasi have peaked.

Though cases are expected to rise in some cities in Bihar and other states, there is a chance that the coming days will show more cities recovering from the deadly disease.

Cities that show downward trajectory after peak

According the Prof Agrawal, Mumbai is among the top cities showing downward trajectory after touching the peak.

The city started reporting less than 5,000 cases on April 26 and now it has been consistently reporting under 4,000 cases for last three days.

Graph of Covid-19 cases in Mumbai for last 30 days (Source: Covid-19india.org)

Thane is another city in Maharashtra that is showing a drop in the number of Covid cases. Prog Agrawal said that initially it was on the parallel trajectory but later the new cases start to drop significantly.

Data shows that Thane has been reporting under 4,200 cases from last three days.

Graph of Covid-19 cases in Thane for last 30 days (Source: Covid-19india.org)

Ahmedabad, Gujarat might also have peaked before the expected case load as it is showing a consistant downward tranjactory.

Data shows that the city has consistently reporting a downfall in the number of new cases reported per day. The number of active cases has also dropped significantly.

Graph of Covid-19 cases in Ahmedabad for last 30 days (Source: Covid-19india.org)

Surat is also showing promising numbers as there is a consistant downfall in the number of cases.

Data shows that the city is reporting less than 2,500 cases since April 25.

Graph of Covid-19 cases in Surat for last 30 days (Source: Covid-19india.org)

Uttar Pradesh, which is one of the most affected states during the second wave of Covid-19 is also showing some promising numbers. Starting with Lucknow, Prof Agarwal said that it is ‘taking a leisurely way down after peaking.”

Data shows that the city started reporting less than 5,000 cases on April 26 and it is reporting less than 4,000 cases for the last three days.

Graph of Covid-19 cases in Lucknow for last 30 days (Source: Covid-19india.org)

Prayagraj has taken a similar path as it has been reporting less than 1,500 cases for last four days.

Varanasi is following the footsteps of Prayagraj and is reporting less than 2,000 cases since April 26.

Chattisgarh’s Raipur has been reporting under 2,000 cases since April 26. However, the situation is not going smooth for other cities in Chattisgarh.

Cities that are close to hitting the peak

According to Prof Agrawal, the cities that are close to hitting the peak Bengaluru (Karnataka), Kolkata (West Bengal), Chennai (Tamil Nadu), and Khorda (Odisha).

Cities that are at peak and going parallel

There are some cities that have touched the peak but they are yet to experience a downward trajectory. These cities are Patna (Bihar), Kanpur (Uttar Pradesh), Indore (Madhya Pradesh), Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh), Nagpur (Maharashtra), and Pune (Maharashtra).

Cities that have peaked now and gone up

Unfortunately, some cities have gone upwards after touching the projected peak. These cities include Noida (Uttar Pradesh), Kobra (Chattisgarh) and Ranchi (Chattisgarh).

Covid-19 situation in India

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India has so far reported 1,99,35,471 Covid-19 cases. There are 34,18,859 active cases in the country. A total of 1,62,88,989 have been cured and discharged. So far 2,19,017 people have lost their lives to Covid-19 related complications. 15,71,98,207 doses of Covid-19 vaccines have been administered in India till May 2. 12,83,74,277 have got first dose of the vaccine while 2,88,23,930 have got both the doses of the Covid-19 vaccine.

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