Although PM Narendra Modi-led NDA government is returning to power for the third term, this will be the first minority govt headed by Modi. Against the expectations and predictions of comfortable victory, BJP won only 240 seats, compared to 303 seats in 2019.
However, BJP has not lost seats across India, in fact, it has gained seats in some states like Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. The party lost most seats in Uttar Pradesh, which came down from 62 seats in 2019 to 33 this year. Last time its ally Apna Dal won 2 seats in the state. This year, Apna Dal won one, while another NDA ally LRD won 2 seats. Therefore, total NDA tally un UP came down from 64 to 36.
BJP’s vote share in Uttar Pradesh in 2019 was around 50%, and in the 2024 elections the same was over 41.4%, which means the vote share shrunk 8.6%. Therefore, BJP’ vote share in UP fell by 17.3%. Notably, of the all seats in UP where BJP fielded candidates, the party lost vote share in all seats except two. The party’s vote share went up in only two constituencies, Gautam Buddha Nagar and Kaushambi, where the vote share went up from 59.64% to 59.69% and from 39.28% to 40.21% respectively.
Despite an increase of vote share from 39% to 40% in Kaushambi, BJP actually lost the seat to SP. Of the 75 seats that BJP contested in Uttar Pradesh, its vote share decreased in all the remaining 73 seats by various extents. This means even though the party has won 33 seats, its vote share has decreased in 32 of those seats.
5 seats were allotted to alliance partners, Apna Dal, RLD and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, of which Apna Dal won one and RLD won two seats.
Interestingly, the BJP won the constituency where its vote share decreased the most, Fatehpur Sikri. BJP’s vote share reduced from 64% to 43%, marking a decrease of 33%, but BJP’s Rajkumar Chahar managed to retain the seat. The second highest drop in margin was in Banda, 46% to 32%, where the party lost the seat to Samajwadi Party.
The most talked about constituency where BJP lost is Faizabad, which includes the Ayodhya assembly constituency. BJP received 4,99,722 votes this time against 5,29,021 in 2019, and the vote share went down from 49% to 44%. The vote share went by almost 10% in the constituency. Faizabad has 5 Assembly segments, Ayodhya, Bikapur, Dariyabad, Milkipur and Rudauli. The assembly constituency-wise voting pattern is not known yet, as the same will be published later when ECI publishes the detailed statistical reports of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In the 2019 elections, BJP was ahead in 4 assembly segments, except Milkipur where it was behind SP.
BJP’s vote share dropped by over 10% in as many as 53 seats, however, the party won 21 of those seats. The rest 32 were won by INDI Alliance partners SP and Congress. Apart from Fatehpur Sikri and Banda where its vote share reduced by 30%, the same went down by between 20%-30% in seven constituencies. BJP won only two of those seats, Marajganj and Aligarh.
In Amethi, Smriti Irani’s vote share went down from 50% to 38%, reducing by 24%, where Gandhi family loyalist Kishori Lal secured a surprise win. On the other hand, in Rae Bareli, the same went down by 25% from 38% to 29%, ensuring the win of Rahul Gandhi. BJP lost the Allahabad constituency to Congress with its vote share coming down by 23% from 56% to 43%.
In as many as 44 constituencies, BJP’s vote share went down by from 10% to 20%. Among these, BJP won 18 seats, while SP won 24 and Congress won the rest 2. This includes PM Modi’s Varanasi, where his vote share went down from 64% to 54%. PM Modi polled 6,12,940 votes this time against 6,74,664 votes last time.
In the balance 20 constituencies, the vote share of the BJP decreased by less than 10%, and it won 11 of those seats.
Please note that the vote share reductions mentioned here are percentage decreases in vote shares, not the difference of vote shares in 2019 and 2024. For example, in Fatehpur Sikri, BJP’s vote share went down from 64% to 43%, which means although the difference is 21%, the percentage of vote share actually went down by 33%. This is arrived at by using the following formula:
The analysis of vote share of BJP in 2019 and 2024 has shown that the party has lost vote share in the entire state and in all constituencies where it contested, apart from 2 exceptions. This resulted in a massive drop in the party’s number from the UP, which contributed to the party not crossing the majority mark alone.
The reason for such bad performance of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh will be analysed extensively in the coming weeks and months. However, it is notable that in the 2019 elections, SP and Congress were not allies, they contested elections separately. This time they were part of the INDI Alliance, and the opposition alliance has been most successful in the state, which resulted in the alliance almost reaching the majority mark.
