As misleading claims relating to the recently released official GDP growth rate are being peddled, the Chief Economic Advisor to the government of India, Dr Venkatramanan Anantha Nageswaran, has dismissed all the misinformation by stating clear facts. Speaking to journalist Shekhar Gupta, Dr Nageswaran addressed the controversy surrounding the 7.8% real GDP growth rate as stated by the government.
Dr Nageswaran rejected the 2.6% GDP growth rate given by former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg against the official rate of 7.8%. The Chief Economic Advisor said that the 2.6% has been calculated by using cherry-picked figures.
He explained that the official growth rate of 7.8% was calculated using the nominal GDP of ₹88.27 lakh crore for Q1 FY2026-27 and the nominal GDP of ₹80.00 lakh crore from the corresponding quarter of FY2025-26, taking 2022-23 as the base year.
He pointed out that the government had earlier stated the nominal GDP for Q1 FY2025-26 as ₹86.05 lakh crore. This figure was calculated under the old GDP series, whose base year was 2011-12. But later, the government changed the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23 and recalculated the nominal GDP for Q1 FY2025-26 as ₹80.00 lakh crore.
The 7.8% was arrived at by using the revised figure of ₹80.00 lakh crore for Q1 FY2025-26 and ₹88.27 lakh crore for Q1 FY2026-27.
The CEA pointed out the anomaly in the method used by Garg to calculate the 2.6% growth rate. Dr Nageswaran said that Garg used the nominal GDP of ₹86.05 lakh crore (Q1 FY2025-26) calculated under the old GDP series, with base year 2011-12, and the nominal GDP of ₹88.27 lakh crore (FY2026-27) calculated under the new GDP series with 2022-23 base year to arrive at the 2.6% growth rate.
“…now what they are doing is they are taking the FY2011-12 number of 86 (₹86 lakh crores) and comparing the ₹88 lakh crores, which is now compiled under the FY2022-23 base year, and saying that the true GDP growth rate in nominal terms is 2%. That’s not correct. You are cherry-picking the number that you want,” Dr Nageswaran said.
He added that if Garg wanted to calculate the growth rate using the nominal GDP of ₹86.05 lakh crore for Q1 FY2025-26, which was calculated under the old GDP series with base year FY2011-12, he should also have estimated the nominal GDP for Q1 FY2026-27 under the old GDP series, keeping the base year as FY2022-23. Then, the outcome would still have been “defensible”.
“Now, if you really want to compare 86 (₹86 lakh crore) with something, then you don’t cherry-pick. If you want to compare 86 (₹86 lakh crores) that belongs to the base year FY2011-12 series, then please estimate the same metric for FY2026-27 first quarter under the same base year, and then you compare that number and say what the growth rate is that would be at least somewhat defensible,” the CEA said.
Former Finance Secretary Garg used two GDP growth figures calculated under two different GDP series and different base years to give the 2.6% growth rate, which renders it incorrect. Notably, Garg later contradicted himself and claimed that the GDP growth rate of the country during Q1 FY2026-27 should “definitely be 5%”.
The Congress and the entire opposition have been using Garg’s misleading claims to attack the Modi government and reject the economic growth of the country.
