The pandemic of Wuhan coronavirus seems to be on a relentless march across India. India’s coronavirus tally breached the 3 lakh mark on Saturday with a daily spike of 11,458 infections while the fatalities count rose to 8,884 with 386 deaths.
The country now stands at the fourth position of the list of countries worst-hit by the pandemic with experts claiming that the peak is yet to arrive in India. Currently, there are 3,08,993 caseloads registered in India with more than 1,54,000—approximately 50 per cent of them having recovered from the contagion.
Coronavirus hotspots —Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi remain the key driver of COVID-19 spike in India
According to the study published by Professor Shamika Ravi on Twitter, about 77 per cent of the new coronavirus cases in the country can be ascribed to the COVID-19 hotspots in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi. She has asserted that the coronavirus cases in the country continue to rise with a growth rate of 3.1 per cent which translates to doubling of cases in a span of 23 days.
Ms Ravi has shared graphs of her study to adduce that the coronavirus cases have spread across the country but hotspots such as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi remain the key drivers of the infection. In the graphs attached in her tweets, one can see how the caseloads in rest of the states across the country except Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi are on the wane. On the other hand, the trajectory of infection in the coronavirus hotspots of Maharashtra, Delhi and Tamil Nadu continues to rise, indicating that the peak of coronavirus cases in these states is yet to arrive.
Where are NEW cases coming from? 5Day moving average:— Prof Shamika Ravi (@ShamikaRavi) June 13, 2020
1) ~77% new cases are still from the hotspots – MH, TN, DL
2) The infection has spread countrywide but the hotspots -MH, TN, DL – remain the key drivers. @OfficeofUT @ArvindKejriwal @CMOTamilNadu pic.twitter.com/1Uqk9o4iQh
Death rate in Delhi 10 times the all-India death rate
Perhaps, the most disconcerting statistics about the surging coronavirus cases in Delhi is the death rate of the patients who have contracted the infection. The mortality rate in Delhi is 10 times the all-India death rate and Professor Shamika Ravi has cautioned that the death rate in Delhi is still on the rise.
On the graph of Cases per million vs Tests per million, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat remain the outlier states who need to ramp up their testing capabilities significantly given their current caseloads.
(Cases Vs. Tests) across states of India:— Prof Shamika Ravi (@ShamikaRavi) June 13, 2020
1) DL, MH, TN, GJ – these are outlier states — they need to test LOT more, given their current case load. pic.twitter.com/DSyvfuwz4m
How far Indian states are from their peak?
While most of the Indian states are moving towards their peak, there are some states which have shown signs that the peak is far away. Comparing the growth of coronavirus cases in the period between June 3 to June 7 and June 8 to June 12, the decline in the rate of new caseloads reveals that the peak of those such states is imminent. However, there are certain states such as Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have bucked the trend and the rate of new cases in these states has risen in the above period.
How far are Indian states from their peak? (0 growth of ACTIVE cases) pic.twitter.com/W3QqsMF0rE— Prof Shamika Ravi (@ShamikaRavi) June 13, 2020
Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka are the two states that have recorded negative growth rate in the period between June 3 to June 7 and June 8 to June 12, meaning that the coronavirus outbreak in these states may be well past the peak.