Why BJP lost seats as compared to 2012 although it increased its vote share

The Gujarat elections results are out, and the BJP has secured 99 seats whereas the Congress has reached 77 seats. A comparison purely based on seats shows that BJP’s tally has come down from the 115 seats of 2012 whereas Congress has moved up from the 61 seats it won then. But the vote-share statistics show something different.

If one sees the voteshare percentages for last 2 Gujarat assembly elections, one can see that BJP’s performance in 2017 is as good as its 2007 tally, when Modi was at his peak. But, while they secured 117 seats in 2007, this time around they won only 99 seats. The same vote share percentage yielded 18 seats less. On an absolute basis as well, 49.10% is a staggering voter share percentage.

- Advertisement - - Article resumes -

The seats obtained from this voteshare are lower this time around because the Congress managed to increase its voteshare from 38% in 2007 to 41.40%. The incremental 3.1% helped Congress massively. Even so, BJP still has a healthy lead of 7.7% over Congress’s voteshare. Then why the reduction in seats?

It is possible that the votes for BJP were all concentrated whereas Congress’s votes were spread more evenly across. Now that the results are out, an analysis reveals exactly this.

The highest margin for a BJP victory is 1.17 lacs in Ghatlodia. Whereas the highest margin for the Congress is just 50,776 in Mandvi. In fact, BJP won in 20 seats with margins of 50,000+ whereas Congress won just the Mandvi seat with 50,000+ margin. In all these 20 seats, the votes beyond the Congress mark are basically useless. The same votes, if secured in some other seats may have meant something. This is why we see the aberration between voteshare and seats.

A deeper analysis reveals that the BJP’s average margin is also much higher. BJP’s average margin is 29,967 whereas the Congress’s average margin is just 13,239. A margin wise split of seats won is as below:

While the BJP won big, the Congress won smaller, but more, as compared to their earlier performances. Thus in spite of a lower voteshare, it kind of punched above its weight.

When we see the data of past elections also, we see that the average margin has substantially increased for BJP, whereas the margin for Congress has actually decreased:

While in politics, a victory is a victory regardless of margins, for a political party to truly prosper in the long term, it must be willing to introspect and strategise to gain lost ground in the next election. BJP is known to be brutal as far as self analysis is concerned, and perhaps, why the party couldn’t win the same number of seats as 2012 and 2007, despite increasing it’s vote share is something that the party needs to figure out and rectify going forward.


Share This Post and Support:
We need your support to survive in the media industry. Please consider paying us for the content we produce:

To know more about these payments, please click here.


Most read articles recently

‘Krantikari’ journalist Punya Prasun Bajpai sacked, again, this time from Surya Samachar

Punya Prasun Bajpai and his team of 25 had joined Surya Samachar last month

Twitter users attack Arvind Kejriwal after he shares an ‘anti-Hindu’ image

This is not the first time Arvind Kejriwal has hurt the religious sentiments of people

Watch: Embarrassment for Hardik Patel, crowd chants ‘Modi, Modi’ as he addresses a Holi event

Red-faced, Hardik Patel had to stop speaking and left the place soon after

AAP propagandist tweets false claim about Adani Group, deletes due to fear of defamation

Earlier Delhi's Education Minister Manish Sisodia had also tweeted false claim about Adani Group

The Wire journalist wishes Holi with ‘Bismillah’, devout Muslims say it’s against Islam

Celebrating Hindu religious festivals is not the only that triggers abuses and threats from Muslim radicals

Jammu and Kashmir Police officer Imtiyaz Hussain claims his life being under threat after he exposed Pro-Pak Islamists and ‘journalists’

Jammu and Kashmir policeman reveals how certain 'journalists' work hand in glove with the enemies across the border in Pakistan

Rahul Gandhi’s lucrative and seemingly clandestine means of income and his links to scam accused FTIL, Unitech

How does Rahul Gandhi earn to buy land and other properties? A mystery we try to unravel

BJP’s aggressive candidate list for 2019 election like a blizzard on Congress led by Rahul Gandhi

The boldness of BJP is apparent in that it has 21 present Union and ministers of state in the list, alongside the candidature of its party president, Amit Shah from Gandhinagar in Gujarat.

AgustaWestland Case: Accused middleman Rajiv Saxena, who had turned approver submits diary and pen-drive containing details of the deal

Rajiv Saxena had submitted his statements before the court after he turned approver. He had earlier claimed before ED that his “exposure in the case was minimal” and that he merely acted as a front for other beneficiaries.  

Fact Check: Did 350 people convert to Islam in New Zealand after the Christchurch Mosque attack?

Many people spreading a fake news on social media that 350 people converted to Islam in New Zealand after the Christchurch Mosque attack

Latest articles

Connect with us

148,194FansLike
119,911FollowersFollow
30,864SubscribersSubscribe

Don't miss these


Share This Post and Support: