Why BJP lost seats as compared to 2012 although it increased its vote share

The Gujarat elections results are out, and the BJP has secured 99 seats whereas the Congress has reached 77 seats. A comparison purely based on seats shows that BJP’s tally has come down from the 115 seats of 2012 whereas Congress has moved up from the 61 seats it won then. But the vote-share statistics show something different.

If one sees the voteshare percentages for last 2 Gujarat assembly elections, one can see that BJP’s performance in 2017 is as good as its 2007 tally, when Modi was at his peak. But, while they secured 117 seats in 2007, this time around they won only 99 seats. The same vote share percentage yielded 18 seats less. On an absolute basis as well, 49.10% is a staggering voter share percentage.

- Advertisement - - Article resumes -

The seats obtained from this voteshare are lower this time around because the Congress managed to increase its voteshare from 38% in 2007 to 41.40%. The incremental 3.1% helped Congress massively. Even so, BJP still has a healthy lead of 7.7% over Congress’s voteshare. Then why the reduction in seats?

It is possible that the votes for BJP were all concentrated whereas Congress’s votes were spread more evenly across. Now that the results are out, an analysis reveals exactly this.

The highest margin for a BJP victory is 1.17 lacs in Ghatlodia. Whereas the highest margin for the Congress is just 50,776 in Mandvi. In fact, BJP won in 20 seats with margins of 50,000+ whereas Congress won just the Mandvi seat with 50,000+ margin. In all these 20 seats, the votes beyond the Congress mark are basically useless. The same votes, if secured in some other seats may have meant something. This is why we see the aberration between voteshare and seats.

A deeper analysis reveals that the BJP’s average margin is also much higher. BJP’s average margin is 29,967 whereas the Congress’s average margin is just 13,239. A margin wise split of seats won is as below:

While the BJP won big, the Congress won smaller, but more, as compared to their earlier performances. Thus in spite of a lower voteshare, it kind of punched above its weight.

When we see the data of past elections also, we see that the average margin has substantially increased for BJP, whereas the margin for Congress has actually decreased:

While in politics, a victory is a victory regardless of margins, for a political party to truly prosper in the long term, it must be willing to introspect and strategise to gain lost ground in the next election. BJP is known to be brutal as far as self analysis is concerned, and perhaps, why the party couldn’t win the same number of seats as 2012 and 2007, despite increasing it’s vote share is something that the party needs to figure out and rectify going forward.

Share and Support:
Support OpIndia by paying for content

Most read articles recently

Activist opposing Akshaya Patra’s mid-day meal contract thinks ‘Brahmins obstruct India’s development’

The Akshaya Patra has come under criticism recently for not including onion and garlic in its mid-day meals for school children.

Mumbai Police teaches a lesson in humility to ‘special’ Sonam Kapoor

Actor Dulquer Salman clarified that he and Sonam were sitting inside a car that was rigged to a truck and hence were not breaking traffic rules.

Here is what connects attack on Akshaya Patra, French NGO against Rafale and demonization of Amarnath Yatra

The web of foreign-funded NGOs that demonised the Amarnath Yatra, French NGO that complained against Rafale in France and the demand to remove Akshaya Patra from midday meals contract

Rafale: SC examined the pricing details closely, ‘did not rely’ on CAG report as claimed by Rahul Gandhi

Rahul Gandhi has claimed that the Supreme Court verdict on Rafale was based only on the CAG report, while it is not true

Uttar Pradesh: Eight cattle smugglers arrested in Bahraich with arms and ammunition

The smugglers even tried to trample the police personnel with their vehicle.

Double whammy for Congress in court: After Rafale verdict, Rakesh Asthana’s appointment as special director gets SC approval

The Supreme Court's verdict is being seen as the second major embarrassment for both the Congress party and Prashant Bhushan, as the Supreme Court had earlier rejected a plea on the issue of a probe concerning the Rafale deal.

Church of South India Archbishop Dyvasirvadam arrested in church fund scam, reports Times of India

According to the report, archbishop Dyvasirvadam was allegedly involved in misappropriation of church fund for over a decade

Zee News issues defamation notice of Rs 1000 crore to Congress leader Navjot Singh Singh

Sidhu had allegedly threatened the Zee News when he had said “nani yaad dila denge” after Zee News had shown a video ‘Pakistan Zindabad’ slogans were raised at an election rally

Congress friendly journalist wishes death upon BJP Delhi spokesperson Tajinder Bagga

During the run-up to Gujarat assembly elections last year, Trivedi was caught spreading morphed images with Amit Shah's fake quotes on Patidars

Pro-Congress troll resumes fake news website, makes outlandish claims on Rafale targeting Modi

Abhishek Mishra has been associated with the website which spreads fake news and Islamist propaganda

Latest articles

Connect with us


Don't miss these