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India may have 17 lakh+ total coronavirus cases by 3rd August, with over 6.9 lakh active cases, says study

Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi have a higher percentage of the positive rates, implying they are not testing enough and need to increase the capacity, says Professor Shamika Ravi.

India is struggling with the increasing number of Covid-19 cases. Since unlock phase-2 started, the number of cases has spiked in several locations, especially in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Experts believe that while the country is getting back to its feet and the economy is slowly restarting, the number of cases will keep rising.

According to Prof Shamika Ravi, the current growth rate in India is 3.4%. If the cases keep rising at this pace for another 20 days, we will see close to 17.8 lakh cases in total with 6.9 lakh active cases. Prof Shamika suggested that the states have to rethink and re-evaluate the containment strategies to slow down the spread of the infection.

Over 40% new cases from Maharashtra and Tamilnadu

Prof Shamika noted that 40% of the new cases come from two states Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. The 7-day Moving Average of the new cases suggests that Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have higher daily new cases than Delhi. It has to be noted that the situation in Delhi improved drastically after Home Minister Amit Shah stepped in and helped the AAP government control the situation. West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar have also recorded around 1000 new cases daily.

The average growth rate of the active cases has been persistent at 2.5% that has to be controlled. Prof Ravi said that the states must work on better containment strategies to reduce the number of new cases. The data suggest that Maharashtra’s government has not been able to adequately increase the testing and tracing efforts that are causing significant spike across the state.

The situation is no different in Telangana that was doing well for some time but now is on the verge of becoming a hotspot. Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi have a higher percentage of the positive rates, implying they are not testing enough and need to increase the capacity. Yogi Adityanath has already asked the officials to ensure the state has a daily capacity of 50,000 tests. UP has also started door-to-door medical screening.

The difference in total cases and active cases

Prof Shamika has mentioned explicitly that 17 lakh+ is the expected number of total reported cases from the date the first case was registered in India. As of now, India has recorded a total of 8,55,079 positive cases of Covid-19. 5,53,470 people have been cured and 3,01,609 are active cases that are either getting treatment at a hospital or are under home-quarantine depending on the severity of their symptoms. 23,174 people have lost their lives due to the complications associated with coronavirus. Prof Shamika’s analysis of the current situation suggests that in the next 20 days, India will add over 8 lakh positive cases, taking the total tally over 17 lakhs, with over 6.9 lakh new cases.

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