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Exit Polls show BJP sweeping MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh despite Congress win in assembly election of the 3 states

As the last phase of the Lok Sabha elections has come to an end, the exit polls have started to trickle in. Most exit polls are suggesting that the NDA might be able to win more than 272 seats required to form a government at the centre.


According to India Today-Axis Exit Poll, BJP has significantly regained the losses it incurred in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh in assembly elections. The exit poll has suggested that reversing its losses in the Vidhan Sabha elections in these 3 states, BJP has scored massive victories.

Out of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, BJP is all set to win 26-28 seats, while Congress is reduced to winning 1-3 seats. In the state of Chhattisgarh, in which Congress comfortably secured a majority in the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2018, BJP is poised to win 7-8 seats while Congress is pegged to win 1-3 seats out of the total 11 Lok Sabha seats. In Rajasthan too, BJP has shown a stellar performance with BJP set to score 23-25 seats out of the total 25 seats.

TMC should not behave like a crying baby: Babul Supriyo slams TMC for complaint against PM’s Kedarnath visit

Slamming the Trinamool Congress (TMC) for filing a complaint with the Election Commission (EC) against the media coverage of Prime Minister Modi’s Kedarnath visit, Union Minister Babul Supriyo asked the party not to behave like a crying baby. “TMC should not behave like a crying baby”, said Supriyo.

The BJP leader said that TV channels should have the freedom to decide what they want to cover and that the amount of media coverage a person gets depends on how important the person is. “TV channels should decide what they want to cover. If cricketer Sachin Tendulkar goes to vote and then decide to drive by himself to Pune then media will definitely cover it. It depends on the importance of a particular person on how much media covers him”, said the singer during a media interaction in Kolkata.

Speaking on the incidents of violence in West Bengal during the Lok Sabha elections, Supriyo accused the TMC of inheriting violence from the CPI(M). He said, “Violence is inherited by the TMC through CPI(M) and from there it has spread in the state”. He termed the violence by TMC as bizarre and said that the party has lost its credibility.

“TMC has lost its credibility and if it alleges that BJP is doing violence then people will not believe it. It is fear of losing that TMC is acting in a bizarre manner”, said Surpiyo.

Retorting on the defamation notice sent by Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee to PM Modi for allegedly making “wildly fabricated allegations” against him, Supriyo said that defamation cases could be filed against Mamata Banerjee uses derogatory language against the Prime Minister. “TMC is talking about defamation, we can file millions of defamation cases against the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee for her usage of derogatory language in public”, he said.

On the issue of faulty EVMs Supriyo called it a technical thing and said, “Lakhs of EVMs are being used in the country during the polls, couple of them might not work, it is a technical thing that happens with any electronic equipment”, said Supriyo.

Polling for the 7th phase i.e. the last phase of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections ends today and the result will be announced on 23rd May.

Rahul Gandhi concedes defeat, whines about EVMs even before the first vote is counted

Four days before the results for the Lok Sabha elections are declared, the Congress party seems to have already conceded defeat. Just when the last phase of voting for the last phase of the elections ended, and before the exit poll results are out, the Congress President Rahul Gandhi posted a tweet, blaming the Election Commission for the impending defeat of the Congress party.


He accused the Election Commission of “capitulation before Mr Modi & his gang”, which is obvious to all. He gave a long list of alleged concessions given by the EC to Mo, which included electoral bonds, EVMs, alleged manipulation of election schedule, NaMo TV, “Modi’s Army” and “drama in Kedarnath”.

He tweeted that Election Commission used to be feared & respected, but not anymore. The Congress party has been alleging EVM manipulations by BJP for a long time, despite the fact that BJP has lost several assembly elections in the last 5 years. Electoral bonds provide a way for donation of white money to political parties, and it is available for all parties.

The allegation of “manipulating the election schedule” is the strangest charge made by Rahul Gandhi, as it was not made by the Congress party earlier. Moreover, the schedule was declared by the Commission when the elections were announced, and no change has been made to the same after that. So, it is not clear what is the allegation of Rahul Gandhi exactly in this regard.


Not to be left behind, Congress leader P Chidambaram also joined Rahul Gandhi in attacking the constitutional body, and alleged that the EC has completely surrendered its independence and authority. He said that the visit of PM Modi’s visit to Kedarnath yesterday “is an unacceptable use of religion and religious symbols to influence the voting”.

Far Left propaganda website gives UPA 200 seats, 166 seats to NDA based on “projections”

Far-Left propagandist website, News Click, has come out with a new set of projections. Earlier, it had given the NDA only 66 seats and the UPA 167 for the first three phases based on projections of Assembly Election results.

As per the current predictions based on “past election results, current alliances and losses due to discontent with the Modi government”, the NDA will win 166 seats while the UPA will end up with 200.

The report states, “These figures have been projected from a detailed state by state analysis of past voting trends, current alliances, and attribution of vote swings away from either of the alliances or parties based on a host of governance-related factors, both at the Centre and the states. These projections are not based on exit or opinion polls.”

It appears utterly stupid and bizarre to make such projections based on previous elections results. The circumstances surrounding the 2019 General Elections are unique in that the BJP is up against an assortment of parties which suffer inherent contradictions. Therefore, it is naive to assume that there will be a complete transfer of votes.

The numbers in itself appear incredulous. The AAP is given 5 seats, one wonders these seats are going to come from. The Left Front is given 20 seats, one has similar musings about these numbers as well. The Trinamool Congress is given 32, considering current circumstances, it appears to be too much of an exaggeration. Even the 200 given to the UPA seems to be a vast overestimation.

The report states further, “The main reason for this outcome – which is factored into the data analysis – is the failure of the Modi government on multiple counts including such pan-Indian issues like joblessness, farmers’ falling incomes and their continued indebtedness, refusal to provide respectable wages to workers, inability to curb corruption, free play of cronyism, damage to constitutional institutions, anti-Muslim stance and encouragement of Hindu fanaticism, open abetment of upper caste oppression against dalits and snatching away of land rights of adivasis. The privatisation of such public services as education and healthcare and selling off the public sector to private entities have also angered people.”

These are not an objective analysis of events but delusions of an overly optimistic mind. The projections appear to be based not on an honest evaluation of circumstances but on the outlet’s own fantasies.

It certainly appears whoever conjured these numbers either lives in a bubble of his own making or is crazy enough to believe that readers will actually buy into it.

Patna: Eateries encashing on the election season offer discounts to people with inked fingers

Some eateries in Patna, Bihar cashing on the election fever, have decided to offer discounts to those customers who have voted on Sunday in the last phase of the general election.

A multi-cuisine restaurant on Fraser Road, Lakhu Ka Dhaba, has planned to offer a discount of 17 per cent to those who show their inked finger.

“Since we are going to elect the 17th Lok Sabha in 2019, we have put up a discount of 17 per cent for voters who will visit our restaurant today after casting their vote. Our idea also is to promote voting,” said Vijay Kumar, a staff of the restaurant.

Similarly, another eatery called Laziz Tandoori on Fraser Road is also offering a range of discounts on various food items, said it, manager, Dushyant Raj, as per reports.

“On Sunday, we will be offering a discount to voters, who come to our place and show the inked finger, and, depending on the results on May 23, will offer a bigger discount on that day,” Raj said.

Similarly, several restaurants and bars across Mumbai had followed the same strategy to boost their sales when Mumbai had gone to polls. Mumbaikars had enjoyed 10-25 per cent discount while the restaurants had introduced a special marked-down menu for those who voted.

Meanwhile, following a similar trend, Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) had also seen specially curated menus offering dishes named after political leaders to extra discounts.

The two constituencies in Patna district, Patna Sahib and Pataliputra, are both voting today. The main city falls with the Patna Sahib constituency, represented by sitting MP Shatrughan Sinha fighting on a Congress ticket this time. BJP’s Ravi Shankar Prasad is challenging him. Results would be declared on May 23.

No difference between TMC and a terrorist organisation: Chandra Bose calls TMC goons as ‘Jihadi brigade’

West Bengal went into the last phase of polls today. Rampant incidents of violence have been reported from various constituencies in the state. Commenting on the hooliganism the TMC workers have been resorting to in the entire election season, Subhash Chandra Bose’ kin and BJP leader from South Kolkata constituency Chandra Kumar Bose, on Sunday said that TMC workers were behaving like “terrorists” and “jihadis” in West Bengal.

Speaking to ANI Bose said, “Last night, I was getting calls from my workers from different booths that they have been threatened by TMC’s ‘jihadi’ brigade that if you sit as booth agents for BJP, you’ll be murdered. There’s no difference between a terrorist organisation and TMC,” furthered Bose.


On April 24, CK Bose was reportedly heckled by the TMC goons who had stopped him when he was going to file nomination from South Kolkata. Throwing light on Mamata Banerjee’s autocracy and flawed law and order situation, the South Kolkata’s BJP candidate alleged that the Kolkata Police stood there in silence while his party workers saved him.

This election season has witnessed several incidents of violence under Mamata’s regime in the state. Moreover, electoral polls in West Bengal are often greeted with violent skirmishes and clashes between competing parties. With Mamata Banerjee at the helm of affairs in West Bengal, TMC goons are empowered to run amok carrying out their depraved activities with impunity. It is widely believed that TMC goons are protected and sheltered by TMC leadership which further emboldens them to execute their nefarious activities.

Recently, following the clashes between BJP and TMC goons after BJP President Amit Shah’s roadshow in West Bengal, in a midnight crackdown on BJP leaders and workers, dozens of BJP karyakartas including BJP Delhi spokesperson Tajinder Bagga had been detained by Kolkata Police.

Moreover, continuing the trend of political violence, TMC goons allegedly attacked and heckled BJP candidate Arjun Singh in Barrackpore.

Recently, BJP leader Arvind Menon and some district leaders were attacked by TMC goons while BJP’s Tuhim Mondal’s house ransacked. Similarly, a BJP booth president in Jhargram, Raman Singh was beaten to death, allegedly by TMC goons.

A week ago, the TMC goons had also attacked the cavalcade of BJP leaders Himanta Biswa Sharma and Dilip Ghosh in Kanthi Lok Sabha constituency. A large group of TMC goons had blocked the road, smashed the windscreens and had damaged over 20 motorbikes in the cavalcade while West Bengal police watched as mute spectators.

Moreover, BJP Asansol candidate Babul Supriyo was also attacked and his car vandalised when he had gone to visit a polling booth in his constituency during the ongoing elections after villagers had threatened to boycott polls following the non-deployment of central forces in some polling booths.

‘Journalists’ now use the fall of the Left in Australia to console themselves and insinuate that Modi can meet the same fate

As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections draw to a close, enthusiasts are now waiting for the exit polls with bated breath. However, some familiar suspects have upped the ante to discredit the exit polls even before they had started to trickle in. One such attempt is made by the Print editor Shekhar Gupta through his tweets forewarning his followers to bear in mind how all exit polls have been defied in Australia and a conservative coalition had won the elections there.


Another controversial journalist Rana Ayyub seemed to concur with Shekhar’s assessment that traditional coalitions have the potential to defy the exit polls. Such tweets from Shekhar and Rana also indicate that they have already resigned to the fact that most of the exit polls will predict Modi victory against the opposition alliance.


While there’s no guarantee that all the exit polls will be accurate all the time, but may help in ascertaining the larger trend. Exit polls are conducted to detect in advance the pulse of the nation. They are carried out to establish the general trend and identify the pattern or ideology espoused by the voters to forecast election victory with greater certainty.

In the case of Australia, the ideologically left-leaning Labour party was predicted by all exit polls to sweep the elections. However, the conservative Prime Minister ended up seizing a stunning victory. Though his victory has defied the exit polls, many journalists like Shekhar fail to notice forest for the trees. In opposition to the exit polls, the Conservatives may have registered a victory, but the more telling fact is that they have successfully defeated the Left ideology of the Labour party. It is rather disingenuous of journalists to run down the exit polls without factoring in the other aspects that have a profound impact on the results.

Across the world, the left has been rapidly ceding its political space to the conservativist oppositions. Left-leaning journalists and intellectuals world over have persistently refused to acknowledge the obvious undertones implying the rise of their ideological opponents. There are examples galore how the people around the world, disenchanted by the hollow liberal principles have switched the sides against the left. Japan, India, US and now Australia have seen a rise of anti-leftist government in their respective political space. Even after the US elections, the liberals couldn’t bring themselves to the fact that a Republican, much less Donald Trump has won their presidential elections.

Shekhar and Rana can seek solace in the fact that exit polls were defied in Australia, but to their dismay, the opposition alliance in the Indian context is ideologically close to Left-Liberalism and the leftists. Moreover, the purported opposition alliance is fragmented and the parties forming the opposition alliance are fraught with insecurities. In such a gloomy scenario, it might as well be wishful thinking that the opposition alliance which reflects a left-liberal ideology and with untrustworthy parties would be able to defy the exit polls.

Modi ministers in five years – Ravi Shankar Prasad, Minister of Law Justice and Minister of Electronics and Information Technology

In the series on the performance of various ministers in the Modi government, let’s take a look at Ravi Shankar Prasad, the Minister for Law and Minister of Electronics and IT

Ravi Shankar Prasad’s father, Thakur Prasad was a senior advocate in Patna High Court, and one of the founders of Jan Sangh, the predecessor of the BJP. Ravi Shankar Prasad also is a designated senior advocate in Supreme Court of India. Like many others In BJP, Ravi Shankar Prasad also started as a student leader in 1970s, and was active in the student movement against Indira Gandhi, led by Jayprakash Narayan, popularly known as JP movement. He was also jailed during emergency. He then was associated with ABVP – the student wing of RSS, and held many posts in ABVP.

In 1995, he was inducted in the national executive of the BJP. He was the person to file PIL in infamous fodder scam of Bihar, in which Lalu Prasad Yadav, former CM of Bihar is currently serving the jail term. He was first elected to Rajya Sabha in 2000. In September 2001, he was appointed as Minister of State for Coals and Mines. He also held charge for Ministry of Law and Justice and Ministry of Information and Broadcasting as Minister of State during Vajpayee government. In 2014, after Narendra Modi took charge as Prime Minister, he was inducted as Cabinet Minister for Law and Justice and Electronics and IT. He also held the charge of Telecom Ministry for some time in Modi government. In these elections, he is contesting for a Loksabha seat for the first time from Patna against Shatrughan Sinha. Let’s have a look at his tenure as minister in Modi government.

Mobile factories – Make in India is a one of the prestigious campaigns by Modi government to promote manufacturing in India, which will create jobs domestically, as well has reduce import, thereby saving decreasing country’s reliance on imported goods, and saving prestigious foreign exchange. Under Make in India, and due to conducive ecosystem created as a part of the campaign, the number of mobile phone manufacturing units in India has gone up to 120 in last 5 years compared to just 2 before 2014. This includes the world’s largest mobile phone factory by Samsung in Greater Noida from where Samsung intends to satisfy domestic demand as well as export handsets to rest of the world giving a boost to India’s exports. While Rahul Gandhi can assure voters about mobiles made in Bharatpur, Chitrakoot, Kishangarh, while completely ignoring that geolocation used by manufacturers is denoted as a country, and not as a particular place, Narendra Modi and Ravi Shankar Prasad have already made it a reality. Today most mobile phones in India come with ‘Made in India’ stickers. Those who have purchased new mobiles in the last few days would be witness to that. Given that India is a country, where almost everyone owns a mobile phone, and is a thriving market for mobile phones, imagine the kind of foreign exchange the country has saved in last four years, since Modi government assumed power in New Delhi.

Digital India – Digital India is another hallmark scheme of this government, with an aim to do almost all possible governance is done through web minimizing human interface at the government offices, and reducing corruption. However for Digital India to succeed, country needs strong digital architecture, backed by websites of different departments and provision of services through digital means. Various initiatives like checking the attendance, online procurement have been started. This government has taken several steps to strengthen the digital footprint of the government. Every top functionary of the government, and all the ministries, now have verified and active Twitter handles, and Facebook pages through which much of interaction happens between the common man. Almost every ministry and department now has an interactive and updated website through which common man can access almost all the information. On this performance dashboard, which is updated daily, people can see the progress made by the government in different areas. His role in Digital India, and success of the Digital India campaign can be adjudged from the fact that, he was featured among top twenty most influential world leaders in Digital and e-Government, and only one to be featured from India in digital government by a UK based NGO.

On the party front, the BJP mandated its ticket aspirants to have Facebook and Twitter accounts, which proves party practices what it preaches. It is a well-known fact the having much better online presence was one the most important factor in BJPs win in 2014. So much so that the Congress which was reluctant to have online presence was forced to catch up with BJP almost after two years of BJP sweeping Loksabha elections.

NJAC – National Judicial Appointment Commission (NJAC) was brought in by the Modi government to democratize, and streamline appointment of judges to the High Courts and the Supreme Court by the way of 99th amendment bill, which are currently appointed to opaque, and arbitrary collegium of the Supreme Court of India, in which government’s role is merely reduced to that of a post office, which is not envisaged by the Constitution of India. Constitution of India provides for appointment of Supreme Court Judge by the President of India (Government – as president is titular head and has to act in aid and advice of cabinet of ministers led by Prime Minister), and appointment of judges of High Court by the President in consultation with Chief Justice of India, and the Governor of concerned state (meaning state government).

However current collegium system doesn’t consult the government, as envisaged by the Constitution which is by far, very much unconstitutional, and that too by the Supreme Court of India, which is the highest custodian of the constitution. Even former CJI JS Verma, whose landmark verdict, known as second judges case, paved way for collegium system said, it is not working as envisaged and the government should bring national commission for appointment of judges. Interestingly, Justice JS Verma, the judge who authored the majority opinion in the Second judges case, also did not hide his dissatisfaction at the functioning of the Collegium. He also said, “my 1993 judgment which holds the field, was very much misunderstood and misused. It was in that context that I said the working of the judgment now for some time is raising serious questions, which cannot be called unreasonable. Therefore, some kind of rethink is required.”

Government sought to replace the collegium system by bringing in NJAC bill and got it passed through both houses of parliament and ratified by 2/3rd states as it is a requirement for constitutional amendment bill, however Supreme Court struck down the law going back to the collegium system, giving the signals that Supreme Court is not year ready to accept the primacy of executive in appointment of judges. It is also to be noted that India is the only country in the world, where judges appoint judges and executive has no role in appointment of judges.

This article throws an interesting light on how SC judges are appointed, including former PM Jawaharlal Nehru’s concern on what Pakistan would think, if India supersedes a Muslim SC judge as CJI. However the judge in question was to be superseded not because of his religion, but on account of mental infirmity.

Archaic laws – Modi government has repealed 1500 archaic laws, which had become obsolete and had become of no use, and came into the way of smooth administration. A maze of laws enables corrupt to find loopholes and escape. Many unnecessary laws corrupt ordinary citizens, who find it expensive and time-consuming. All the governments since independence could manage to repeal 1,301 laws in last 66 years, however Ravi Shankar Prasad under vision and guidance of Narendra Modi, has managed to repeal 1500 laws by July 2018.

Justice clock – It is often said that ‘Justice delayed is Justice denied’. PM Modi suggested the installation of justice clocks in all courts, showing pending cases, and the rate of disposals in every court to rank every court and to install a sense of competition amongst all the courts. It is the first step in seeking judicial accountability from Indian judiciary, which is infamous for being laggards. Currently, there is one justice clock ticking at Jaisalmer House in New Delhi, which houses the department of justice.

Digilocker – Under Digital India, the government has come with a unique initiative called Digilocker. As the name suggests, it is digital locker which is Aadhar linked, available to every citizen of India, in which a citizen can store his/her documents like mark sheets, driving license, property documents etc. in digital format. One can directly pull digital copy into his respective diglocker, from participating government organisations of central and state government. These participating organizations are increasing day by day, and in a few days’ time, all your documents can be stored virtually on digilocker. Government hasn’t only given storage facility, but has issued instructions that these virtually stored documents would be treated at par with hard copies, and there is no need to submit hard copies for any verification. For e.g. even if you don’t possess a physical driving license and registration certificate (RC) while driving a car, and if a traffic constable asks, you can show your digitally stored driving license and RC using mobile phone to the traffic cop and he has to accept it a valid license and RC.

UMANG App – Umang App is a one-stop app where the range of government services can be accessed. Unified Mobile Application for New-age Governance is a full form of UMANG. As the name suggests, its a unified app to access a range of government services like PF, tax payments, gas cylinder bookings etc. As per UMANG website, currently 362 services of 73 departments of 18 states are available on UMANG, obviating the need of having different apps of different departments on phone.

 

The author is journalism pass out from Indian Institute of Mass Communication, New Delhi. After dangerously flirting with the idea of left during his IIMC days, due to the proximity of the IIMC with JNU, a den of radical leftists, he became firmly aligned to right after realizing the futility of the left. He tweets at @kpophale.

Sidhu may have ambition of becoming CM, Congress does not tolerate indiscipline: Captain Amarinder Singh

Responding to Navjot Singh Sindhu‘s remarks backing his wife Navjot Kaur Sidhu’s allegations of denying her a Lok Sabha ticket from Amritsar, Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh said that he had no difference of opinion with Sidhu but the timing of his statement was wrong. He said that Sidhu’s statement just a day ahead of the election might affect the party, if at all, and not him.


The Chief Minister said that it was fine if Sidhu wanted to replace him and become the Chief Minister as people do have ambitions. “I have known him since childhood, I have no difference of opinion with him. He probably wants to become the Chief Minister and replace me, that is his business”, said the Captain.

When asked about a disciplinary action would be taken against such comments, Singh said that the Congress Party never tolerated indiscipline and that he was sure that the party would look into the matter after the election. “It is up to the central leadership to take notice of this and I have read news reports on this. I am sure they will look at it after the elections. Congress Party does not believe in indiscipline. I have seen this for 50 years, they will not accept things where you can damage the party. Otherwise, you are free to say what you want. If anyone from Punjab damages the party, it is wrong”, he said.

Navjot Singh Sidhu’s wife had alleged that she was denied the Lok Sabha ticket from Amritsar Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and Congress Punjab affairs-in-charge Asha Kumari had said that she could not win from the constituency. Sidhu had also come out in support of his wife and said that she would never lie.

What global trends suggest and what it means for PM Modi: Pollsters have a tendency to significantly underestimate right-wing votes

With the last phase of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections underway, it is only a matter of hours before the Exit Polls are released. While the Opinion Polls prior to the elections had indicated a BJP victory, the Exit Polls are expected to hint towards the same. However, such numbers, as global results have shown, must be treated with a fair bit of caution.

It all began with the 2014 Indian Lok Sabha elections. While most had predicted the BJP to emerge as the single largest party, none apart from Today’s Chanakya had predicted the utter rout of the Congress and the UPA and a single party majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. Since then, the legitimacy of such polls have come under severe scrutiny and they are on the verge of being discredited. Let us now look at some global events that have shaped that impression.

1. United Kingdom’s European Union Referendum (2016)

In the immediate run-up to the polls, most polling agencies had given the Remain Campaign the edge. Some had even given them a resounding victory. In TV studios as well, it felt like the Remainers had already won.

YouGov gave the Remain Campaign a victory with 4% (52%-48%). Populus predicted a victory for the Remainers with a margin of 10%, Ipsos Mori gave Remainers a 3% edge. ComRes gave Remainers a lead of 8% on the basis of those expressing an intent to vote. Only TNS and Opinium gave the Leave Campaign a slender victory with 2% and 1% margins.

When the results were eventually declared on the 23rd of June, the UK had voted to leave the European Union. The Leave Campaign had managed to secure a victory with a margin of almost 4%, 3.89% to be precise. Thus, even those who had predicted a Brexit victory came nowhere close to accurately predicting the margin of victory. It became evident that they had severely underestimated the hidden Brexit voter.

2. The US Presidential Elections (2016)

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US Presidential Elections is regarded as the greatest upset in the history of democratic politics. Ever since Trump announced his campaign, absolutely no one apart from Trump’s close associates gave him any chance of victory.

“Donald Trump will never be the Republican nominee,” was the cry until the last moment of his announcement as the official candidate from the Republican party. “Donald Trump will never be President,” was the cry till he secured the 271st delegate. And the Opinion Polls of the voters reflected that opinion.

Every single poll going into Election Night gave Hillary Clinton a significant edge over her Republican rival. The lowest margin of victory was 1.9% while most gave her between 3-4% while some even gave her a more than 4% margin of victory. While these polls could be said to have predicted the national aggregate accurately as Hillary Clinton did win the popular vote by a fairly large margin, they failed spectacularly to ascertain the delegates the candidates would win.

Source: Wikipedia

In the run-up to it, none of the pollsters apart from the Los Angeles Times gave Donald Trump any serious chance of victory. More than that, media outlets gave Hillary Clinton outlandish chances of victory. Huffington Post gave Hillary Clinton a 98.2% chance of victory on Election Day, CNN gave her a 91% chance of victory the day before polling, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, widely considered to be one of the best pollsters around, gave the Democratic candidate more than a 70% chance of winning.

However, by the time the night was over, Donald Trump was declared the President-Elect of the United States of America. Hillary Clinton was so devastated that she could not bring herself to address her people the same night. Since then, the Liberal camp, unable to believe what had exactly happened on the 8th of November, has descended into harbouring delusions about Russian Collusion.

3. The Australian Federal Elections (2019)

In a ‘miracle victory’, incumbent Prime Minister Scott Morrison managed to retain power as all 151 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate went to polls. The centre-right coalition managed to win 73 seats while the Australian Labor party won 65 with the fate of 7 seats still in doubt.

In the run-up to the polls again, every single pollster had predicted Morrison to lose. The mood was such that even the man himself considered it a miracle. “I am standing with the three biggest miracles of my life here tonight and tonight we have been delivered another one,” he said while addressing his supporters with his wife and daughters.

To be able to truly gauge the magnitude of the upset, one needs only read this tweet by a senior journalist.


Social Media is abuzz ever since the results were declared and people are expressing their disgust towards such polls.


The Left-Liberal crowd are having a complete meltdown on social media over the results. Opinion Polls had them convinced that they were winning the elections comfortably. However, things haven’t worked out very well for them.

What It Means for Lok Sabha Election 2019

Opinion Polls have consistently failed to accurately predict results is not the only lesson to take from here. More than just failing to predict elections, they have regularly underestimated the support for Center-Right political parties.

The reasons for this could be numerous. Firstly, it could be the result of the confirmation bias on the part of the pollsters themselves. Unconsciously or consciously, they have projected their own sentiments on to the populace they surveyed. Secondly, it could be the fact that Western countries have become so polarized that expressing any right-wing political opinions at all gets one labelled a Nazi, people are much less inclined to reveal their true political preferences to pollsters. Therefore, the percentage of the silent right-wing vote is significant enough to change the results completely. Thirdly, it could be the fact that the pollsters themselves are not very competent at their job and are prone to getting things wildly wrong.

Thus, with Exit Polls expected to be released very soon now, people should take them with a pinch of salt. If the current elections follow the general trend, then again for this election, pollsters will underestimate the vote-share of the NDA quite significantly.