The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released the Provisional Estimates of the Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the financial year 2025-26, along with the Quarterly Estimates for the fourth quarter (January-March 2025-26). These figures underscore India’s continued economic resilience and upward trajectory, even as global uncertainties persist.
According to the data, India’s real GDP at constant prices (base year 2022-23) is estimated to reach ₹323.12 lakh crore in 2025-26, marking a significant increase from the First Revised Estimate of ₹299.89 lakh crore for 2024-25. This translates to a robust real GDP growth rate of 7.7 per cent for the year, up from 7.1 per cent in the previous financial year. On the nominal side, GDP at current prices is projected to stand at ₹346.36 lakh crore, reflecting a growth of 8.9 per cent over ₹318.07 lakh crore in 2024-25.
Complementing the annual figures, real Gross Value Added (GVA) for 2025-26 is estimated at ₹294.91 lakh crore, compared to ₹273.36 lakh crore in the preceding year, indicating a growth rate of 7.9 per cent against 7.3 per cent earlier. Nominal GVA has risen to ₹314.87 lakh crore, growing by 9.1 per cent. These estimates incorporate the latest available data for the fourth quarter, revising the earlier Second Advance Estimates released in February 2026.
In the fourth quarter of 2025-26, the economy maintained its momentum with real GDP estimated at ₹87.77 lakh crore, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.8 per cent from ₹81.40 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Nominal GDP for this period stood at ₹94.65 lakh crore, up 9.1 per cent. Real GVA in Q4 grew by 7.9 per cent to ₹80.18 lakh crore, while nominal GVA expanded by 9.9 per cent to ₹86.46 lakh crore. This performance highlights broad-based growth across key sectors during the final quarter of the fiscal year.
Sectoral analysis reveals encouraging trends in both primary and secondary sectors. The primary sector, encompassing agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, and mining and quarrying, contributed to overall expansion, supported by healthy food grain production. Indicators such as total food grain production grew by 5.3 per cent annually, with cereals up 5.2 per cent.
The secondary sector, including manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply, and construction, benefited from strong performances in cement production (up 8.7 per cent), finished steel consumption (8.0 per cent), and sales of commercial vehicles (12.6 per cent) and three-wheelers (12.8 per cent).
The tertiary sector, which includes trade, hotels, transport, communication, financial services, real estate, and public administration, continued to be a major driver of growth. High-frequency indicators like central goods and services tax (CGST) collections rose by 6.4 per cent annually, while exports of goods and services grew by 9.3 per cent. Vehicle registrations, air traffic, and port cargo handling further signalled healthy activity in services and infrastructure-related areas.
These provisional estimates have been compiled using the benchmark-indicator methodology, drawing on a wide array of data sources including the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), GST data, financial results of listed companies, balance of payments statistics from the Reserve Bank of India, and various price indices such as the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The estimates align with updated methodologies under the new base year series of 2022-23.
This strong performance in GDP and GVA growth reflects the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at boosting investment, infrastructure development, and sectoral reforms. Rising domestic demand, supported by vehicle sales and household registrations, alongside improving export figures, points to a balanced recovery. Challenges such as fluctuations in natural gas consumption and certain import categories remain areas for close monitoring, but the overall trajectory remains positive.
These estimates tell a story of a resilient and dynamic Indian economy that is steadily accelerating towards higher growth. The 7.7 per cent real GDP expansion in 2025-26 not only surpasses the previous year’s performance but also reinforces India’s position as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. It signals sustained private sector confidence, improving capacity utilisation, and the fruits of structural reforms, positioning the country well for continued progress in the coming years, provided macroeconomic stability and targeted investments are maintained.
