Pakistan’s already strained economy is bracing for a fresh shock after the interruption of low-cost vaccine supplies from India in the aftermath of last year’s military conflict, Health Minister Mustafa Kamal warned on Friday.
For years, Pakistan relied on affordable vaccines sourced via international programmes, many of them manufactured in India. That supply line, which came to a halt after the May 2025 confrontation, has now left Islamabad staring at a steep rise in healthcare costs. According to the minister, the country’s annual vaccine import bill, currently around $400 million, could triple to nearly $1.2 billion by 2031 if local production does not begin in time.
At present, nearly 49 per cent of Pakistan’s vaccine imports are financed by international organisations operating through GAVI, with the government covering the remaining 51 per cent. But this external support is not permanent. Kamal cautioned that international funding for vaccines is expected to wind down by 2031, placing the entire burden on the national exchequer.
Ironically, even during periods of tense relations, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan had continued to receive cost-effective, high-quality vaccines made by Indian pharmaceutical companies under GAVI arrangements. That channel, however, has remained shut since the 2025 conflict.
The stakes are high. Pakistan currently provides 13 different vaccines free of cost to its citizens, yet not a single one is produced domestically. With a population of nearly 240 million and around 6.2 million births every year, demand for immunisation is only set to rise, making dependence on expensive imports increasingly unsustainable.
In response, the health minister revealed that the government is now exploring partnerships with Saudi Arabia to establish local vaccine manufacturing and move towards self-sufficiency, an effort he described as crucial to protecting both public health and the country’s fragile finances.
