The outcome of the Karnataka assembly elections is nearly certain, and the Congress party has emerged victorious with an overwhelming majority. While the party’s supporters are fervently asserting that this victory will have a significant impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a careful examination of historical trends suggests otherwise. In the previous assembly elections held in 2018, the Congress also secured the largest number of seats in Madhya Pradesh and went on to form governments in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.
However, the party’s performance worsened in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Speaking of the results of the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections, the Congress appears to be securing 135 seats, while the BJP is obtaining 65 seats and the JDS is securing 20 seats. In terms of vote share, the Congress has received 43.1%, while the BJP has obtained 35.6% of the votes. The vote share of the JDS stands at 13.3%. Let us now compare these results with the 2018 Assembly election outcomes.
In that election, the BJP emerged as the largest party by securing 104 seats, while the Congress obtained 80 seats, placing them in the second position. The JDS had registered victories for 37 of its candidates. From this perspective, the BJP has suffered a loss of 39 seats this time, while the JDS has experienced a setback of 17 seats. In terms of vote share, in the election held five years ago, the BJP had received 36.35% of the votes, while the Congress received 38.14% and the JDS obtained 18.3% of the votes.
The BJP may be down in Karnataka but not out.
— Amit Malviya (@amitmalviya) May 13, 2023
A quick look at the comparative vote share of the BJP, Congress and JDS between 2018 and 2023.
BJP’s vote share has dropped to 35.8% from 36.2% in 2018, a drop of mere 0.4%.
Congress’s on the other hand has gone up by 4.8%, from…
Now let’s see who has gained and who has suffered in terms of vote percentage in Karnataka. The Congress has witnessed an increase of approximately 5% in its vote share, while the JDS has incurred a loss of 5% of the votes. This means that Congress has gained as much as the JDS has lost. There has been no significant decline in the BJP’s vote share, which would classify it as an anti-establishment wave. The BJP’s vote share has not decreased even by 1%.
