Today’s Chanakya’s exit poll predicts a landslide victory for BJP in West Bengal, Axis My India withholds its forecast for the state citing ‘no response from voters’

While most poll agencies released their exit poll results for assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry yesterday, just after conclusion of voting, pollster Today’s Chanakya released its numbers today. Notably, while most other agencies have predicted a very close contest in the two-phase West Bengal Assembly elections, Today’s Chanakya has forecasted a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), potentially ending the Trinamool Congress (TMC)’s 15-year rule in the state.

According to the agency, the BJP is projected to win 192 ± 11 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 148. The TMC-led alliance is expected to secure 100 ± 11 seats, while others are pegged at 2 ± 2 seats. The agency also estimated the BJP’s vote share at around 48% (± 3%), with TMC+ at 38% (± 3%).

The projection comes amid record voter turnout of 92.93% in the elections held on April 23 and April 29, with results scheduled for May 4.

In contrast, prominent pollster Axis My India has chosen not to release its exit poll data for West Bengal. Founder Pradeep Gupta explained that an unusually high proportion of voters, around 60%, refused to disclose their voting preferences during face-to-face interviews, after casting their votes, rendering the sample unrepresentative and too thin for a reliable projection.

Gupta noted that this level of reluctance, far higher than the national average of 10-20%, stemmed from voters’ reluctance to speak up, describing it as a “fear and silence” issue unique to Bengal that no pollster could fully overcome. He said the agency would not publish numbers based on such limited responses.

Other exit polls released on April 29 and 30 showed a broad consensus leaning toward a BJP advantage, though with varying margins. Praja Poll projected the BJP winning between 178 and 208 seats. P-Marq estimated 150–175 seats for the BJP and 118–138 seats for the TMC. Matrize forecasted the BJP at 146–161 seats and the TMC at 125–140 seats. Poll Diary put the BJP at 142–171 seats and the TMC at 99–127 seats.

A couple of others, such as People’s Pulse and Janmat Polls, projected a TMC edge with 177–205 seats for the TMC, but the majority of agencies pointed to BJP gains or a clear win with thin majority.

Today’s Chanakya also shared projections for the other states that went to polls, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry. In Assam’s 126-seat assembly, the BJP-led NDA is projected for a landslide victory with 102 ± 9 seats and a 50% ± 3% vote share. The DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu’s 234 seats is expected to retain power with 125 ± 11 seats. In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is forecasted to secure a narrow edge with 69 ± 9 seats in the 140-seat assembly, just above the majority mark of 71. These predictions by the agency largely align with what other exit polls have predicted for these states.

Written by OpIndia Staff
Last modified at