The number of Muslims trying to leave the country to join terror groups such as the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda in Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan has fallen sharply over the past year. While security agencies see the decline in overseas recruitment as a positive development, they are increasingly worried about a change in strategy: terror groups are now trying to radicalise people while keeping them inside India.
According to intelligence officials, the trend of Indian youth travelling or attempting to travel abroad to join the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda was at its peak between 2014 and 2023. However, the pattern started changing from 2024, with the number of such attempts falling drastically.
Islamic State now wants terrorists to stay in India
Intelligence agencies have found that the earlier push by foreign handlers to get radicalised Indian youth out of the country has largely disappeared. An Intelligence Bureau official said that an analysis of online conversations between radicalised individuals in India and their handlers abroad showed that there were now hardly any calls asking recruits to leave the country.
Instead, officials said, Islamic State and Al-Qaeda recruiters are increasingly encouraging potential recruits to remain in India and carry out activities locally. The Islamic State, in particular, appears to have changed its approach globally, with greater emphasis on influencing people within their own countries.
An official said this deliberate shift is more dangerous because the terror group wants its followers to create small pockets of influence rather than necessarily sending them to conflict zones abroad. In India, officials said, the focus is on region-specific activities rather than creating a single nationwide structure.
South India remains a major focus
Intelligence data shows that South India has historically recorded a high number of cases involving people attempting to join the Islamic State. Kerala and Tamil Nadu were among the states that saw the strongest recruitment push.
Officials said online communication linked to radicalisation has again increased, particularly in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Investigations by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) have also shown the Islamic State’s focus on Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.
These are also among the states from which a significant number of people had previously travelled to Syria and Iraq to join the terror organisation.
Teenagers increasingly being targeted online
Security agencies are now particularly concerned about attempts to reach teenagers. While people in their 20s and 30s have traditionally been targeted, officials said recruiters are increasingly approaching school and college students online.
Counter-terrorism experts believe this is a deliberate strategy because teenagers can be more vulnerable to extremist propaganda. The concern is that prolonged exposure to such material can gradually influence their thinking and make them more receptive to violent extremist ideas as they grow older.
Officials said the increasing use of online platforms has made the task more difficult for security agencies because initial interactions can appear harmless. What may look like ordinary religious discussions can, in some cases, gradually turn into extremist indoctrination.
From overseas recruitment to online indoctrination
Recent investigations have found a shift away from sending recruits abroad. In one case, investigators uncovered attempts to establish what the group described as a ‘liberated zone’, or ‘Al-Sham’, in Padgha, where recruits took an oath of allegiance, or bayath, to the Islamic State.
After taking the oath, individuals were exposed to online lectures and communication channels. Officials said that, on the surface, some of these activities could appear to be religious study. However, deeper investigation showed that some sessions were being used to promote extremist ideology and prepare participants to support violent jihad.
This has changed the challenge for security agencies. Instead of simply preventing people from travelling abroad, agencies now have to identify and disrupt radicalisation taking place inside the country.
Agencies had earlier stopped foreign recruitment
The Ministry of Home Affairs has reported around 155 cases linked to the Islamic State. The US Department of State had estimated that 66 Indian-origin fighters were associated with the terror organisation, including 21 from Kerala. These individuals had travelled from Kerala to join the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Afghanistan.
Officials believe the number of people attempting to join foreign-based terror groups could have been much higher if Indian agencies had not intervened. Under “Operation Chakravyuh”, agencies tracked online activity and helped prevent several young people from leaving the country to join the Islamic State.
The earlier strategy therefore helped reduce the flow of recruits towards conflict zones abroad. But officials now warn that the threat has not disappeared; it has changed form.
