Find out which Exit Poll got the Gujarat electoral predictions absolutely spot on

The counting of the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections began on tumultuous note with the Sensex tanking almost 800 point during the initial counting. The initial trends showed a neck to neck fight between the Congress and the BJP in Gujarat, with the Congress leading in the Saurashtra-Kutch region and BJP holding fort in south Gujarat.

Since then, the momentum has more than swung in the BJP’s favour, with the party comfortably expected to bag about 102 out of 182 seats in Gujarat. This meant that the party comfortably managed to cross the majority mark of 92 in the state. The Congress seems to be coming a distant second by possibly bagging 75 seats.

Apart from the actual results, the vote share too emerged as a big story with the BJP notching an impressive 49.2% vote share, as per latest trends.

- Advertisement - - Article resumes -

One of the most intriguing aspects during the buildup to every electoral counting are the exit polls and this Gujarat election was no different. Various polling agencies collaborated with prominent media houses or even put up solo exit poll projections:

Exit Poll Projections BJP seats Congress seats Others
Axis-India Today99-11368-82-
VMR-Times Now108-11861-710-3
Today's Chanakya135 (+-11)47 (+-11)-
Nirmana TV (Gujarati)104744

As seen above, all the exit polls projected the BJP to get a majority in the state and seem to be getting proven right on that count. But making a broad prediction is one thing and being accurate is another. So which Exit Poll got it absolutely right in Gujarat or came the closest in getting it right?

These are the latest electoral figures from the Election Commission for the state of Gujarat (During the publication of the article):

Latest election trends based on Election Commission’s website taken at 13:41 PM on 17th December 

As per the above data, the BJP has won 11 seats and is leading on 91 others which totals to a domination on 101 seats. The Congress on the other hand has won nine seats and is leading on 66 others. The others are dominating on five seats.

Based on this data, one notices that the Axis-India Today poll got the projection right considering it estimated the BJP seats to fall under the range of 99 to 113 and the Congress to win about 68-82 seats. Predicting a range is a very convenient way to project situations but the median of its projection turns out to be, 106 seats for the BJP and 75 seats for the Congress.

This means that Nirmani TV, which is a local channel in Gujarat, holistically seems to be coming the closest by projecting 104 seats for the BJP, 74 for the Congress and four for others. Tv9-CVoter too came close with its projections by predicting 108 seats for the BJP.

Coming to the other exit polls, Today’s Chanakya seems to be getting its projection of 135 seats grossly wrong and even ABP-CSDS, Republic-JanKiBaat missed their projection margins.

Another interesting story of the exit polls was the sudden projection of 117 seats for the BJP made by ABP-CSDS. CSDS earlier in collaboration with Lokniti and ABP had projected a vote share of 43% each for the Congress and the BJP, which is a far cry from the current 49.2% vote share which is BJP is bagging.

Overall, one might call it a better performance for the exit polls as compared to the Uttar Pradesh elections where all the exit polls got amply it wrong with only News24-Chanakya coming closest by predicting 285 seats for the BJP. The BJP ended up winning 312 seats in the state…

Share This Post and Support:
We need your support to survive in the media industry. Please consider paying us for the content we produce:

To know more about these payments, please click here.

Most read articles recently

Rahul Gandhi’s lucrative and seemingly clandestine means of income and his links to scam accused FTIL, Unitech

How does Rahul Gandhi earn to buy land and other properties? A mystery we try to unravel

AAP propagandist tweets false claim about Adani Group, deletes due to fear of defamation

Earlier Delhi's Education Minister Manish Sisodia had also tweeted false claim about Adani Group
Prakash Raj was welcomed with pro-Modi slogans in Bengaluru

Actor-turned-politician Prakash Raj greeted with pro-Modi slogans as he went to file his nomination

Prakash Raj seemed visibly miffed with a large number of Modi supporters welcoming him with pro-Modi slogans in Bengaluru
Congress' official twitter handle tweets the wrong date of Shahidi Diwas

BJP’s aggressive candidate list for 2019 election like a blizzard on Congress led by Rahul Gandhi

The boldness of BJP is apparent in that it has 21 present Union and ministers of state in the list, alongside the candidature of its party president, Amit Shah from Gandhinagar in Gujarat.

Watch: Embarrassment for Hardik Patel, crowd chants ‘Modi, Modi’ as he addresses a Holi event

Red-faced, Hardik Patel had to stop speaking and left the place soon after

How Caravan and Congress’ attempts to create ‘bribegate’ before 2019 election fell flat

The 'bribegate' that Congress and The Caravan tried to cried falls flat on its face on several counts. 
Rahul Gandhi

Staring at an imminent defeat in Amethi, Congress on the scout to secure a safe seat for Rahul Gandhi

The Congress units of southern states have been feverishly imploring Rahul Gandhi to fight from any constituencies in southern states, apart from Amethi in Uttar Pradesh .

‘Krantikari’ journalist Punya Prasun Bajpai sacked, again, this time from Surya Samachar

Punya Prasun Bajpai and his team of 25 had joined Surya Samachar last month

The Wire journalist wishes Holi with ‘Bismillah’, devout Muslims say it’s against Islam

Celebrating Hindu religious festivals is not the only that triggers abuses and threats from Muslim radicals

Jammu and Kashmir Police officer Imtiyaz Hussain claims his life being under threat after he exposed Pro-Pak Islamists and ‘journalists’

Jammu and Kashmir policeman reveals how certain 'journalists' work hand in glove with the enemies across the border in Pakistan

Latest articles

Connect with us


Don't miss these

Share This Post and Support: