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Which European country will become Muslim majority by which year? Here is what one research says

There are two main factors behind a growing European Muslim population, higher fertility rate of the Muslim population, and a large scale migration from Muslim countries

At a time when the world is debating on the extent of growth of Muslim population across the world and the security implications that are likely to emerge due to the resulting demographic shift in the future, a group of researchers have put forward a study that not only predicts the Islamic conquest of the Europe in the coming years but also presents us a timeline of Muslim population crossing a majority mark in at least 30 European countries.

A research carried out by Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan has estimated a timeline of many European countries turning into Muslim-majority in the coming centuries. The research paper titled, “When will European Muslim population be majority and in which country?”, estimate the timeline of more than 30 European countries moving towards becoming a Muslim-majority country.

Currently, Europe’s population represents about 10 per cent of the world population and about 5 per cent of Europe’s population is Muslim.

Estimates are based on three scenarios

The researchers have considered three scenarios that are likely to act as the major thrust towards making many European countries into Muslim-majority countries in the next century.

In the first – the ‘zero-migration scenario’, the researchers estimate that the Muslim population has a higher fertility rate, i.e, one child more per woman, on average than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern, that could lead to a higher Muslim population in the next century.

This theory estimates that among the High-Growth Muslim population countries, six of them will reach a majority of the Muslim population in the next 200 years. Belgium (in 2175), Bulgaria (in 2160), Cyprus (in 2175), France (in 2165), Sweden (in 2170) and United Kingdom (in 2195) will all have a Muslim-majority population, according to the research estimates based on ‘migration scenario’.

According to another scenario, known as ‘2017 migration scenario’, the researchers expect a higher Muslim population due to a continuous flow of migrants every year based on the year 2017.

The ‘2017 migration scenario’ states that all of the High-Growth Muslim population countries will reach a majority of Muslim population in the next 200 years.

The third scenario – the ‘mid-point migration’ scenario is obtained by averaging the data of the two previous scenarios. The mid-point migration estimates that at least 13 countries will have a Muslim majority population between the years 2085 and 2215. Cyprus will be the first casualty of Islamic invasion, which will be a Muslim majority in the year 2085. By 2125, Sweden will have a majority of Muslims.

France, which is already fighting the menace of radical Islam will turn a Muslim-majority country by 2135. Next in line is Greece, which will see an Islamic conquest by 2135. Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215) will all go undergo a major demographic shift in the next two hundred years. The 17 remaining countries will reach a majority only after two centuries 200 years.

Growing Muslim population will change the face of France perpetually

The growing Muslim population will enforce drastic changes in Europe, be it socially, politically and economically. The researches point out that there are two main factors behind a growing European Muslim population.

One is a higher fertility rate of Muslim population than other Europeans and other is the large influx of Muslims into European countries that arose out of a refugee crisis which reached a peak in 2015.

Secondly, a large number of refugees especially from Muslim countries may be fearing persecution or by a well-thought-out strategy, began to abandon their Islamic lands, sailed to Europe by crossing the Mediterranean Sea to influence a demographic change.

The influx of Muslims into Europe has now broken the old social order existing in these societies. The irreversible changes that have occured in these European societies are manifested on the streets of European cities.

The researchers also assert that there are already various examples to show such changes in European cities which include the proliferation of mosques, prayer calls from loudspeakers, commercialization of halal foods and products, etc. As the Muslim population continue to grow in Europeans societies, these Islamisation project is expected to take extreme forms in the future.

Further, in Europe, the Muslim population are now using their street veto to enforce compatible workload and adjustable working hours that are complaint to Islam, forcing authorities to form new laws in favor of the Muslim population and growing meddling of foreign governments in European political decisions.

The researches foresee that in the coming decades, the Muslim population can exert much more pressure on the local government by exhibiting their sheer demographic strength.

“At first, anti-Islam political parties may gain support in a xenophobic reaction to the rising contribution of the Muslim population to the life of the European society until the Muslim population be a majority. Then negative reactions should fade away. These social, political and economic changes will bring periods of adjustment that would be painful for the European society,” the research states.

Islam will be the second biggest religion in the world, India to have 31 crore Muslims

A 2015 research by US-based think tank Pew Research Centre reveals that Muslims are the fastest-growing religious group in the world. The research centre has projected the Muslim population will increase faster than the world population as a whole.

According to the research, the number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world. As of 2010, Christianity was the word’s largest religion, with an estimated 2.2 billion population accounting 31 per cent of the total people on Earth. Islam was second, with 1.6 billion followers with 23 per cent of the global population.

Between 2010 and 2050, the world’s total population is expected to rise to 9.3 billion, a 35 per cent increase. During the same period, the population of Muslims, with high fertility rates, is projected to increase by 73 per cent. The number of Christians also is projected to rise, however more slowly, at about the same rate as the global population overall, i.e at 35 per cent.

According to the Pew Research projections, by 2050 there will be an almost equal number of Muslims, 2.8 billion or 30 per cent of the population and Christians, with 2.9 billion people or 31 per cent. If the current demographic trends continue, the Muslim population will be the largest exceeding the number of Christians by the end of this century. 

Islam Growing Fastest
Image Source: Pew Research

According to the latest data released by the Pew Research Center, in India, the number of Muslims is projected to rise to more than 31 crores by 2050, about 11 per cent of wold’s Muslim population, making India the country with the largest Muslim population in the world.

According to the 2011 census, India has 170 million Muslims accounting for the 14.23 per cent of the population. The Muslim population will rise faster and reaches to 18.4 per cent of the total population in 2050. Islam is currently the fastest-growing religion on the planet and also the world’s second-largest religion after Christianity.

The estimated change in the population size worldwide from 2010 to 2050 is projected to be 73 per cent for Muslims and 34 per cent for Hindus.

The research adds that the rise in the Muslim population can be attributed due to the young median age of 22 and high fertility rates of the Muslim woman. In India, Muslim women have 3.2 children per woman on average, while the figure for Hindu and Christian women is 2.5 and 2.3 children respectively.

The research states that Muslims population in the United States in 2050 will be at 2.1 per cent of US population. About 3.3 million Muslims lived in the US in 2015, about one per cent of the US population.

With the rising population, the Muslims are increasingly becoming more assertive and are exerting their influence and street power on the country’s politics by aligning with different political parties that are ready overlook the radicalism within the community.

However, these population trends will cause a worry among non-Muslims worldwide, who are already fearful of the growing radicalisation in the Islamic community. The increase in the Muslim population will only embolden the community having an effect on the existing relationships between Muslims and non-Muslims in many parts of the world.

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OpIndia Staff
Staff reporter at OpIndia

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