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Armed forces vs Civil services – when the tail wags the dog

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The Armed Forces seem to be under siege. The adversary is neither as deadly as terrorists or enemy soldiers, nor as discernible as them. Silent, slow and insidious, the damage caused by them wouldn’t be in terms of mortal wounds or loss limbs, but the long term impact on morale and efficiency is likely to be much more damaging. The attackers are none other than people providing support and ancillary services required to keep the forces functioning and fighting fit.

A huge organisation like the Armed Forces require a plethora of support functions besides its main job of waging war or preparing for it. Since a trained soldier/officer is a resource better engaged for the latter, support cadres consisting of civilian personnel have been set up to take care of former. But as time has progressed, the imperatives of managing these cadres themselves has assumed greater importance than the actual function they were set up for.

The Military Engineering Service (MES) is a part of the army Corps of Engineers. It provides civil engineering support to the Armed Forces in peace stations. It’s officers and personnel are drawn from the Corps of Engineers. To avoid diverting too many combat engineering officers and men towards such tenures, MES started direct recruitment of civil engineers for some of these posts. Since their terms and conditions of service were obviously different from army officers, administrative requirements necessitated setting up a separate cadre for them, and a separate cadre called Indian Defence Service of Engineers (IDSE) came into existence.

Now, many years later, this cadre is attempting to subsume the very organisation it was created to serve. As is clear from the letters below, something that has a distinct unpleasant flavour of a trade union has come up amongst the personnel of this cadre. There are attempts to replace the identity of the parent organisation, i.e. the MES, with that of the cadre, shockingly sounding like attempts at secession. It would be unimaginable for any person in uniform (with whom the post occupied by the originator of the letter is interchangeable) even imagining writing such a letter.

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So IDSE, which began as a small part of the MES to make up for the shortfall of uniformed engineer officers, is now asserting ownership over MES, and trying to make it independent from uniformed control. The purpose behind this is clear – such a move would free them from accountability to the armed forces. Senior commanders would then no longer be able to enforce quality of service that is desired from such an organisation.

Unlike the above example, which has unfolded away from public gaze, another attempt by a civilian support cadre to overstep its bounds is in the news. This is because of the outrage caused by a letter written by the Central Administrative Officer (CAO) of the Ministry of Defence attempting to downgrade the uniformed officers’ vis vis their counterparts in the Armed Forces HQ Civil Service (AFHQCS).

The service, another support cadre set up to provide clerical and office supervisory support in the armed forces headquarters, has now assumed proportions that it was never intended to in the first place. The letter, which issues with the approval of the Raksha Mantri, lays down an amended equation between armed forces officers and the AFHQCS officers wherein the former have been downgraded one step from the existing level. As per it, a Principal Director is now equated with a Maj Gen.

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Not mentioned in the letter, but as an obvious fallout it would mean that senior clerical staff from the forces posted to headquarters would be working under much junior civilian superintendents. Although the attempted downgradation has no direct impact on pay and allowances, it’s yet another attempt at placing the interests of a cadre over those of the very organisation it was created to serve.

These are but two examples of civilian cadres under the ministry of defence. Apart from the approximately 15 Lakh uniformed personnel, the ministry pays a large number of civilians of the defence budget. These are personnel from departments / organizations like DRDO, Ordnance Factories, Defence Estates, Defence Accounts, MES and Armed Forces Headquarters staff. As per the Census of Government Employees 2011 (pdf link), this figure has grown from 3.65 Lakhs in 2008 to 3.75 Lakhs in 2011.

There has been virtually no corresponding increase in the strength of the uniformed personnel in the three services. This represents a substantial number – 25% – vis a vis the strength of the uniformed forces, and therefore a major chunk of the defence salary bill. In monetary value this share is disproportionately greater than 25% because of a higher ratio of senior posts amongst this vis à vis the armed forces. For example, it includes 121 Apex grade / HAG civilian personnel receiving the highest salaries as compared to 24 at the corresponding grades (Chiefs / C-in-Cs) in the armed forces.

What began as measures to prevent diversion of uniformed personnel to non-core functions have transmogrified into self-perpetuating organisations existing for furthering their own interests. In order to reduce the ‘flab’ and cut down the salary bill component of the defence budget, time has therefore come to take a hard look at all these organisations and cadres and prune them wherever possible.

For example, bulk of the services provided by the MES can be outsourced to large facilities management firms at great savings. Similarly, greater integration of service headquarters with the ministry of defence can ensure replacing large number of civilian officers and clerical staff.

When the tail begins to wag the dog, it’s prudent to dock the tail.

(Author Lt Col Rohit Agarwal (Retd) is an Armoured Corps officer commissioned into 74 Armoured Regiment in 1989. Rohit took premature retirement from the army in 2010 to pursue writing and consulting.)

The major issues emerging from the Mistry-Tata tussle

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When Ratan Tata decided it was enough and Cyrus Mistry must be removed, he wouldn’t have predicted the turn of events. Not only has the boardroom battle come out in public, but the acrimonious differences between the two principal shareholding families was there for all to see.

If you have not, it is imperative that all aspiring entrepreneurs or businessmen read this parting shot by Cyrus Mistry. There have been many analyses. Here are some of the key points that stand out in the letter, that should lead to increased scrutiny of Ratan Tata:

Cyrus Mistry was approached by Ratan Tata in 2011 to succeed him.
The narrative fed to us was that a person who knows the famed “TATA culture” could better manage the affairs at the top. Little did we know that Ratan Tata may have zeroed on Mistry just for that, albeit with a sinister motive. With an insider at the top, Tata may have expected the successor to preserve his legacy – than to challenge status-quo and resort to drastic changes.

Come to think of it, the the biggest conglomerate couldn’t find a suitable candidate in the first part of search process. Now, the same board wants us to believe that they will find someone who will understand the “TATA culture”, create shareholder value and bla bla.

Cyrus Mistry highlights the problems he had inherited
Well! If what Mistry writes here is true, I cannot for the life of me, make out difference between this letter and the letter written by Ramalinga Raju of Satyam. If Raju has been put behind bars, the entire TATA board needs to hauled up for investigation and law-book thrown on them. At the same time, just because of the size and stature of the company, we must expect almost nothing to happen here.

Pierre New York acquisition
We were told that The Pierre was “bought“. However, Mistry explicitly writes that the property was leased. Isn’t this a clear case of misleading investors?

The wonder mini-car – Nano
There is hardly any business graduate in the last 10 years – globally – who was not asked about the marvel of Nano. How in the world can a car so cheap be manufactured? Hundreds of business cases have been written and justified the project.

One of my friends, during an MBA interview asked the candidate how he would turnaround Nano. The guy, apparently, gave elaborate analyses and steps for that. He would definitely have been hired by Ratan Tata. In business world, you either analyse and give the results. Or know what your boss expects and tailor your analysis based on that. We know the kind of analysis made in the Tata group for the Nano project.

Airlines
Mistry writes – “Without the benefit of time and experience to fully evaluate the proposal, I had to accept that Tata Sons would take 51% stake in a USD 100 million joint venture” – in reference to the JV with Singapore Airlines.

This from the Chairman of the biggest conglomerate in India. And we blame Modi for not improving business climate in India.

Do note that I do not refer to the other members of the Board in the above analysis. It is deliberate. They don’t seem to be any better than potted plants in the story. Just have a look at their names and their past on the company website. You will concur with this view.

The mainstream media, especially the business media, has come up short in this boardroom saga. Not one media house had reported the difference of opinions between two big boys in the biggest conglomerate in India. Or was the entire media complicit in this with their silence. Not one business news channel nor any pink newspaper have tried to seek views of other board members – no bytes whatsoever. If Cyrus Mistry had not written this letter, we would have been fed a completely different narrative.

That narrative would have been possibly managed by one Niira Radia…and possibly brought to life by Barkha Dutt…and possibly broadcast on NDTV.

Yeddyurappa’s journey from Allegations to Acquittal – a timeline

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BS Yeddyurappa, Ex-Karnataka CM and BJP leader was found not guilty by a CBI special court in a Rs 40 crore graft case. The Lokayukta report pertaining to this case was the reason behind him losing his Chief-Minister-ship back in 2011.  He has long been pitted as the key man to further BJP’s ‘Southern’ ambitions.

Here is a timeline of events ranging from the start of his troubles till his exoneration:

30th May 2008: BS Yeddyurappa took oath as Karnataka CM.

27th July 2011: The Karnataka Lokayukta submitted it’s report on Illegal iron ore mining in the state which had indicted Yeddyurappa and 12 others in receiving favours worth 40 crores from Jindal Steel Works.

31st July 2011:  Yeddyurappa forced to resign from the CM post by the BJP following the Lokayukta report.

15th Oct 2011: Yeddyurappa arrested after a warrant was issued against him by the Lokayukta court.

8th Nov 2011: Yeddyurappa granted bail after spending 23 days in jail.

March 2012: The initial FIR by the Lokayukta was quashed by the High Court as Yeddyurappa was not provided a notice before the charges were made thereby robbing him a chance of presenting his case. Also the Lokayukta counsel failed to provide any documentation to sustain their claims. The bench said:

“Even during the arguments on the petition, a specific question was put to counsel for the Lokayukta [asking him] to produce any material to connect the petitioner with the alleged offence but he was mum.”

Oct 2012: CBI files a chargesheet against Yeddyurappa for criminal conspiracy, forgery and corruption. The CBI had been directed to file the case by Supreme Court following a plea by NGO named, Samaj Parivartan Samudaya.

30th Nov 2012: Yeddyurappa leaves the BJP to form his own party Karnataka Janata Paksha.

May 2013: Yeddyurappa elected as MLA from Shikaripura Constituency, his party wins 6 seats.

Jan 2014: Merges his party with the BJP, giving the pretext of wanting to help make Modi become PM.

2nd May 2016: Asked to depose before the special CBI court. Was asked as many as 475 questions and became emotional while answering them.

Jan 2016: In another case against him, the Karnataka High Court quashed proceedings against him with respect to 15 FIRs registered by Lokayukta police over denotification of BDA-acquired lands.

26th Oct 2016: Yeddyurappa acquitted by a special CBI Court in the corruption case stating lack of evidence.

The arguments presented by both sides:

Allegation: Of the 40 crores, 20 crores were provided as a donation to Prerna Trust. This trust was run by Yeddyurappa’s sons.
Defence: The donations were made by cheques(not illegal means) and were a part of JSW’s CSR responsibility. Plus as per the trust’s policy, money could only be used for charitable purposes.

Allegation: Yeddyurappa and sons sold an acre of land to JSW associates for Rs 20 crores while the value was only Rs 5-6 crores.
Defence: The CBI used the government’s guidance value for making this charge and not the prevalent market value, which was much higher.

Allegation: The land in question was illegally acquired by Yeddyurappa’s son by misusing his father’s position.
Defence: The land was already denotified by the government back in 2004 when the BJP was not in power.

Allegation: There was a forged NOC involved.
Defence: The CBI failed to produce it in court.

This might not be the end of the road for Yeddyurappa as the Samaj Parivartan Samudaya has announced their decision to appeal the order. Though Yeddyurappa can have his moment while it lasts and with elections scheduled in 2018, the BJP would really hope that he does.

‘Ye Diwali Jawano Ke Naam’ – a social media campaign

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Next week, the entire country will be immersed in celebrations of Diwali, the day good triumphs over evil. Diya’s will be lit, new clothes will worn, sweets will be distributed, as people enjoy the festival of lights. But there will be a few homes in India, where the lights may not flicker, where fire-crackers may not burst, where the glee of Diwali may not reach. These are the homes of our brave martyrs, the soldiers who lost their lives defending our country. May it be at Uri, or any other terror attack.

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India is facing constant threat from terrorists sponsored and aided by Pakistan. We have hit back, but in the exchange of gun-fire, it is our brave soldiers who lose their lives. They are not only soldiers of the army, but they are somebody’s brothers, somebody’s husbands, somebody’s sons. Nothing in this world can make good the sacrifice of the families of the Jawans.

But, while we celebrate Diwali at our homes, is it possible for us to spare a though for these families who gave up their son, for the nations cause? No, we don’t need to halt our celebrations, instead, Twitter user Anshul Saxena asks you to just do one small thing. Listen to what he has to say:


Subsequent to Anshul’s original tweet on 21st October, IndiaTV too has started a similar campaign.

India improves ranking in Global Gender Gap report of World Economic Forum

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India has jumped to 87th position (out of 144 countries) in year 2016 from the 114th position (out of 142 countries) it had in year 2014 in global ranking of countries on an index that measures gender gap. This index is released by the World Economic Forum as part of its yearly Global Gender Gap report.

The report studies and analyses various indicators that capture how women are faring vis a vis men in various fields of life. It specifically focuses on economic participation (equal employment opportunity, wage parity), educational participation (literacy, enrolments for studies), health and survival (life expectancy, sex ratio), and political empowerment.

India has especially improved on the educational participation and political empowerment since the change in regime at the center.

The latest report recognizes the efforts made by India in this by noting that the country could fully close its primary and secondary education enrolment gender gaps. So it appears that the ‘Beti Padhao’ campaign is working.

While the report lauds India for making key investments in women’s education, it cautions that nothing special has been done to remove barriers to women’s participation in the workforce. Due to this, India is not seeing returns on investments in terms of development of one half of her human capital.

The report says that India, among a few other counties, has “an educated but untapped talent pool and would have much to gain from women’s greater participation in the workforce”.

Other area of improvement and concern is the gender gap in health and survival sub-index. The report puts India, Armenia and China as the lowest-ranked countries. So it appears that “Beti Bachao” has to be primary focus of the government going forward.

But overall, India has shown improvement in ranking, which has always been below 100 since 2007, by securing 87th position this year.

In the same report, Pakistan is rated second worst in terms of gender gap by being ranked on the 143rd position.

Uttar Pradesh assembly elections: the story so far…

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Uttar Pradesh is the biggest state in India in terms of population where a whopping 404 assembly seats are up for grabs when it goes for polls next year. The stakes are high, some are fighting to strengthen their position, some aim for greater national relevance, and some hope for survival.

Primarily, there are four key players – BJP, SP, BSP and Congress – and everyone is getting into election mode.

A lot has been happening of late, and those who are not news junkies would have found it cumbersome to keep track. So this article is a summary of what has happened so far in build up to the assembly elections:

Bhartiya Janta Party:

First the BJP. Its alliance won a record 73 seats out of 80 in the state during the Lok Sabha elections, and to maintain that lead is a herculean task. For the party, the challenge can be called similar to what it faced in Bihar assembly elections, where it failed to maintain the lead it had witnessed during the general elections.

In absence of a declared Chief Ministerial candidate yet, PM Modi remains the star campaigner. He chose to attend Ramlila event on Dusshera in the state and earlier this week he addressed a rally where he talked about issues like development and triple talaq.

Party has not yet raked up Ram Temple at Ayodhya issue openly and is sticking to its stand that courts should decide it, but issues like construction of a Ram Museum have been in news.

The state unit of BJP has been able to attract rival leaders of other parties in its fold. Swami Prasad Maurya of the BSP and Rita Bahuguna Joshi of the Congress are notable names, and analysts believe that their admission into BJP was a signal that the party was looking to make inroads into the dalit support base of BSP and the Brahmin voters of Congress, with the party being reasonably confident of getting non-Yadav OBC votes.

However, the issue of CM candidate remains elusive – something many analysts believed had hurt the party in Bihar. There are reports of factionalism too with many leaders trying to prop themselves up as the candidate. Varun Gandhi too was reported to be in this race, but the recent controversy surrounding his alleged blackmail has hurt his chances.

Indian National Congress:

Coming to the Congress, the party is hoping that some Mahagathbandhan like Bihar may happen where it can ride the bandwagon and declare victory over BJP, especially over Narendra Modi.

There have been conflicting reports of Prashant Kishor actively leading the elections strategy. Apparently he had proposed that the party reached out to Brahmins – once their traditional vote bank, and which is why Sheila Dixit was projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate – but later he reportedly got upset that his strategies are not being implemented by the party.

Rahul Gandhi is leading the campaign and it’s the farmers, not Brahmins, who currently appear to be the group that the party is reaching out to. There have been Kisan Yatras and Khat Sabhas, which have made news with farmers fighting for khats (wooden cots).

Apart from the farmers, Congress is wooing OBCs too as it promised within a quota for the Most Backward Castes within the OBC.

The party appears to have put confidence in Rahul and his leadership, claiming that there was some conspiracy by the Modi government to keep him away from campaigning.

In a latest development, Priyanka Vadra attended a poll strategy session of the party, which has sparked hopes in a section of a workers and media that the party could pull off a good performance.

Bahujan Samaj Party:

BSP, led by Mayawati, is aiming to retain its Dalit support base and add Muslims to it. The party had first made a huge issue of a BJP leader using abusive terms for Mayawati. BJP had to expel the leader, but the BSP ended up with self goal as their workers used equally abusive terms for the BJP leader’s wife and daughter. As a result, the BSP lost the moral high ground and any associated political advantage.

Now the party’s focus appears to be reaching out to Muslims and trying for the often talked about Dalit-Muslim vote bank. Be it by reciting quranic verses in rallies or conducting rallies targeted solely at Muslims, BSP is not keeping it subtle – which is a hallmark of Mayawati.

In a way, BSP is replacing its earlier strategy of Dalit-Brahmin combine with Dalit-Muslim combine. Then, a Brahmin face Satish Chandra Mishra was projected as second in command after Mayawati, now it is the Muslim face Naseemuddin Siddiqui.

The party has opposed Modi’s comment on triple talaq and is hoping that Muslims, who are supposed to vote for SP, will now support BSP. And after the bitter family feud in SP – which we will talk about later in this article – it is speculated that the Muslims might actually tilt in BSP’s favor.

Although the party had failed to win even a single seat in the state during the general elections, it will surely register an impact in the coming assembly elections.

Samajwadi Party:

Finally the SP, which has been making most of the news lately. The thing going on in the party is like quantum mechanics – many have heard about it but no one understands it. It’s almost a desi Game Of Thrones going on, though thankfully sans the violence.

Apparently all is not well between father (Mulayam Singh Yadav) and son (Akhilesh Yadav) with the family divided into two camps. As we write this article, neither truce nor further escalation has happened in this family feud.

It all started with Akhilesh removing Chief secretary Deepak Singhal who was considered closed to Shivpal Yadav, and then sacking Shivpal and three more from the state cabinet. Mulayam then countered it with removing Akhilesh and making Shivpal party’s state chief. All this was followed by a day full of drama which is well described here.

Amar Singh is being blamed by many in media and by people like Azam Khan as the outsider who broke the family unity, while there are theories of it being a result of Mulayam’s second wife plotting against Akhilesh to procure a better position for her son.

There is also another conspiracy theory that this entire family feud could be stage managed to play good cop-bad cop strategy where Akhilesh comes out as the good guy who is willing to take on even his father. This can’t be ruled out as many journalists started praising Akhilesh Yadav on his stand on “corruption” even though the entire fight was about control of the party.

Whatever be the real reason, truth is that Uttar Pradesh is now in full election mode and the coming days will see more and more political drama with more twists and turns. Stay tuned.

Why India is disappointed with the Ease of Doing Business rankings

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The past one or two years have seen India rise rapidly in various rankings:

India was the fastest riser, moving up 16 spots to 39th rank in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index

India’s rank improved by 9 ranks in Transparency International’s International Corruption Perceptions Index.

India’s rank on the Global Innovation Index improved to 66th position, up from the 2015 rank of being number 81, after five years of continuous slide in its ranking.

India improved its ranking in the World Bank Group’s bi-annual “Logistics Performance Index 2016”, jumping from 54th in 2014 to 35th in 2016.

In November 2015, we had carried a separate report which documented India’s rise in over 7 different ranks worldwide. After seeing its Ease of Doing Business (EODB) rank slip from a high of 116 in 2007, to a low of 142 (134 as per revised methodology) in 2014, for the one year ended June 2015, India saw its rank improve to 130 (revised to 131) in 2015.

Going by the commitment and the efforts shown towards economic reforms, it was expected that India would show similar, if not much better progress this year too in the EODB ranks. In fact, India had even started a state-wise ranking system within India to make states more competitive.

But the release of the latest report by the World Bank shows that India managed to move just 1 place upward. The Government of India expressed its disappointment at this meager improvement, and listed out various reforms which they felt were ignored by the World Bank, which led to a poor improvement in the rank.  The common threads among some of these reforms were these:

1. The reform is still a work-in-progress which has not been fully implemented yet (for example, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, GST, etc.)

2. The reform has been implemented, but not been used by a substantial number of users, hence not considered by the World Bank (e.g. Introduction of online single window systems, Introduction and streamlining of INC-29 for company incorporation ,etc.)

3. The reform has been done, but the World Bank has not accepted the documentation (e.g. Elimination of the requirement of a company seal while applying for government registrations, Online registration for ESIC and EPFO registration, etc.)

Another factor which could affect India’s rank is the fact that the ranks are based on absolute scores, called Distance to Frontier, an absolute score that measures the gap between a country and the global best practice. So even though India may show a good improvement in the absolute score, its rank may not show commensurate increase if the other countries too put on a good score.

Absolute DTF scores
Absolute DTF scores

As the scores show, since 2014, India has been showing constant improvement in scores year on year, yet the ranks have not improved as much one would have expected.

Further, the studies conducted by the World Bank for this ranking system, are done only in Mumbai in Delhi. To that extent, this rank is essentially of EODB in Mumbai and Delhi rather than India. A quick look at the state-wise ranks of EODB show that if the surveyors had dipped the thermometer in say Andhra Pradesh or Telangana or Gujarat, instead of Delhi and Mumbai, the ranks could have been different:

DIPP Statewise Implementation Scorecard
DIPP Statewise Implementation Scorecard

The EODB rankings also provide granular data, sector-wise, and from this it is clear that India’s improvement this year, has been largely on the back of reforms in the Power sector, which showed a huge jump, as compared to others:

Granular break-up
Granular break-up

The Government’s response also mentions some of the reforms which should impact next year’s rankings. The prime game-changer among them is the ambitious GST. Although the Government feels this will impact the rankings next year, it seems highly unlikely since GST’s earliest implementation date is April 2017, just 2 months before the June 1st cut-off observed by World Bank for their findings. We may again see a scenario like this year, where a reform may have been brought in, but the World Bank doesn’t consider it.

Overall, the signs are encouraging, but also underscore the need to work at an even more frenetic pace. The difficulty of implementing country-wide reforms over a federal country like India can be highlighted by all the troubles faced by GST to become a reality, and the Government must tread this path for many such pan-India reforms.

Poster boys of Congress: some awesome posters created by Allahabad party workers

Indian politics is quite colourful with banners and posters being the brushes that bring the colour to the political canvas. Poster wars between political parties are as crucial and advertisement wars between commercial brands. Haseeb Ahmad and Shreesh Chandra Dubey are two such warriors for Congress.

Both of them are party workers from Allahabad, who earlier held posts in the organization. They have made news more than once with their creative posters, and we bring to you their story and some of their awesome posters.

They attracted eyeballs and attentions ahead of the 2014 general elections when they thought Priyanka Gandhi would be a better candidate to lead the party. They came up with a poster that almost trolled Congress’ official slogan “Main Nahin, Hum” that was created to project Rahul Gandhi as mass leader:

Congress election poster
The poster hinted that UPA-3 was difficult under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi.

Things became a bit too hot to handle for Congress when they came up with another poster in support of Priyanka Gandhi, this time commenting on Sonia Gandhi’s health:

Congress election poster
The poster that was not at all liked by the Congress high command.

Since even the media doesn’t comment on Sonia Gandhi’s health, both of these were suspended from Congress party for the above poster. But this didn’t deter them and they continued with their posters in support of Priyanka:

Congress election poster
The duo hinted that they were not sycophants like Digvijay Singh, who gave dishonest feedback.

With Congress losing the general elections, the duo continued hammering their demand and suggestion that Priyanka should now lead the party at least in Uttar Pradesh. Their past sin was forgiven in the meantime and they were inducted back in the party:

Congress election poster
Haseeb and Shreesh appear to be fan of Bollywood too. Agnipath.

With Amit Shah’s strategy credited for BJP’s spectacular win in Uttar Pradesh during the general elections, the duo claimed that only way to checkmate Shah’s strategy was… of course, Priyanka Gandhi leading the party:

Congress election poster
Both of them know who is the real threat to the party.

But with the party or Priyanka in no mood to heed to their demands, the duo appeared to have given up. They finally came up with a poster that praised Rahul Gandhi too, but Priyanka was there on the poster as well:

Congress election poster
Rahul Gandhi comes back on posters, and without being trolled.

However, their faith in Rahul Gandhi was short-lived as Congress lost another round of state assembly elections early this year. Both of them came up with posters that trolled Rahul Gandhi for the defeat:

Congress posters
The set of posters released after 2016 assembly elections defeat. Rahul Gandhi was again targeted and chorus for Priyanka was back.

Both were stripped off their posts for trolling Rahul Gandhi. They went back to their demand of getting Priyanka Gandhi to lead the party. However, this time they didn’t troll Rahul Gandhi:

Congress election poster
Both of them were back and declared that Indira was back.

With their demands of Priyanka at helm not looking to be met anytime soon again, both of them finally decided to praise Rahul Gandhi as disciplined Congress workers. They declared Rahul Gandhi a “yugpurush” and an avatar of Arjun (we don’t think they were trolling Rahul Gandhi):

Congress election poster
Sudden love and respect for Rahul Gandhi and his abilities was seen.

Their new found love and respect for Rahul Gandhi was seen again, when they used the “surgical strikes” moment to paint Rahul Gandhi as Brahmin superhero (Pandit Rahul Gandhi) all ready to take on Amit Shah. Looks like they are no longer dependent on Priyanka Gandhi to take on Shah:

Congress election poster
While Congress central leadership was clueless how to counter ‘surgical strikes’ fame of BJP, the duo found a way.

And in the latest poster, this love for Gandhi family has gone a step further. Now even Varun Gandhi of BJP finds a place in the poster:

Congress election poster
Sign of this to come? After all the duo were right about Rahul Gandhi’s inability to form UPA-3 government.

These posters don’t constitute the entire portfolio of Haseeb Ahmad and Shreesh Chandra Dubey, and we at OpIndia.com seriously suggest that they should host a website where they showcase all their posters.

Let’s see what their next poster will have. Will Priyanka be back?

Devendra Fadnavis: Party or Broker? Decoding Maha CM’s move in ADHM ‘deal’

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Social media, newspaper op-eds and TV debates are abuzz with the ‘intervention’ of Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in resolving the dispute between Karan Johar and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in relation to the release of the move Ae Dil Hai Mushkil (ADHM).

MNS had threatened the owners of multiplexes that if they exhibited ADHM, they may face disruption and forcible blocking of the movie because it has Pakistani actors. Other than MNS, some single screen owners themselves had decided to boycott the release in wake of anti-Pakistan feelings running high in the country after Uri attack.

With the opposition growing, Bollywood talking heads quickly conflated boycott with ban, misrepresenting the boycott as government intervention, and immediately took the battle to the only destination they recognize lately – PM Modi’s doorstep.

The matter went through familiar twists and turns adequately documented in “The Intolerance Playbook in Modi’s India” which was written before the Bihar election in November 2015. Given that Maharashtra was at the frontline of this controversy, CM Fadnavis had to act in some way to bring the issue to a logical closure. Last week, Fadnavis met the MNS chief Raj Thackrey and Karan Johar to put an end to this controversy.

After this meeting, MNS ‘cleared’ the movie release with three key demands accepted by Johar – no future association of Pakistani artists, a tribute to the soldiers before the movie plays, and a donation of Rupees 5 crore towards Army welfare by every producer who has cast Pakistani artists in any movie yet to be released.

The Maharashtra CM came in for heavy criticism for “brokering” such a settlement, though he claims he had opposed the MNS demand of donation of 5 cr, which was quickly agreed upon by the producers.

His intervention has been dubbed as a poor precedent, breakdown of good governance, and a blot on the position of a Chief Minister.

While all this is debated and more, the most important reason for Fadnavis’ intervention is being missed out on. His actions – whether or not befitting a Chief Minister – were completely political, and he has managed to strengthen his party ship in a big way after this ‘settlement’.

How? The answer lies in the Maharashtra state assembly election of 2014. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has about 42% of the seats in the assembly. It is supported by Shiv Sena (SS), which is still smarting from the loss of designation as the leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Maharashtra. The other option for the BJP is to take outside support from Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to keep the government stable. But BJP, and specifically Fadnavis, vociferously campaigned against NCP in 2014 on the way to power. So that’s an avoidable option. Therefore BJP would like to keep SS, but also have the upper hand.

BJP however cannot have the administrative upper hand, because it does not control any large municipal body in Maharashtra outside Nagpur. All these corporations are with SS, NCP, and Congress or in one case, MNS.

Retaining these municipal bodies is critical for each of those four parties – after all politics needs money and money is derived from power. All the moves with respect to AHDM were actually staged by every party not so much in an ideological way, but to position themselves ahead of the local body elections.

The new round of local body elections start November end and will culminate with the larger corporations Mumbai (BMC), Thane (TMC), Pune (PMC) and Pimpri-Chinchwad (PCMC) going to polls in February.

Ideally, Fadnavis would want to control BMC with the support of SS and PMC independently. He would also want to be a clear second in TMC (likely to be retained by SS) and PCMC (likely to be retained by NCP). This game of thrones needs a certain style of voting division. That’s where MNS comes into play – its voter base has significant overlap with that of SS and in some cases the BJP itself.

Fadnavis’ intervention has given a new lease of life to MNS in Maharashtra, and it may ride the ‘victory against Johar’ wave to cut some votes in these elections specifically in Greater Mumbai and Pune Metro regions.

This political action gains more prominence because for the initial rounds of polls for smaller local bodies, SS has decided to contest independently of the BJP. This announcement was made by the SS Chief Uddhav Thackrey just a few days ago.

BJP has a reasonably strong urban vote base in Maharashtra but it is not a strong party in semi-urban and rural areas. With that handicap, it is quite likely that the party does not fare too well in these smaller local bodies, which tend to be dominated by local strongmen, often aligned with either SS or NCP.

So it became doubly critical for Fadnavis to control the 4 February elections. The only way he could convince SS to have an alliance would have been to show them that BJP had a credible alternative (an MNS alliance) or could prop up a bogey (MNS contesting all seats against SS).

The meeting with Raj Thackrey and Karan Johan achieved that amply. Irrespective of the optics of the settlement conditions, ADHM will now release sans violence. SS will have to find another way to put pressure on the BJP to let them be the senior partner in February polls. And Fadnavis will go into these negotiations from a position of strength.

Was the CM intervention bad optics? Was this bad governance? A CM exceeding his brief? Debates will continue to take place and most people, including many vocal BJP supporters on the social media, believe that Fadnavis erred.

But Fadnavis appears to be betting on the fact that the voters don’t take editorial commentaries too seriously and may well see the compromise as a ‘reasonable one’. He may have lost the morality perception of social media influencers, but gained in a huge way in his political standing. In his equations with SS, it is Advantage Fadnavis for now.

Some Twitter celebrities asked if Fadnavis was the party or the broker to the MNS – Johar settlement. He was neither. Instead he made a move to be the Baazigar – kuchh haar ke jeetne wale ko… Voters will complete the dialog one way or the other in February 2017.

3 retweets by Kejriwal within a day that made a fool out of himself

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Arvind Kejriwal is known to be an active Twitter user, like all his supporters are. He often makes news through his tweets and uses it as an important tool for his political campaigning. Only yesterday he made news when he got into a Twitter fight with Congress leader Captain Amarinder Singh as part of Punjab assembly elections campaign.

Popular opinion was that Captain won the Twitter fight. Thought that may not change the ground reality where AAP is expected to throw a tough challenge to both Badal and Captain, this “defeat” surely got the AAP supremo a little upset; this reflected in his choice of retweets that virtually boomeranged on himself.

To divert attention from this Twitter defeat, Kejriwal re-tweeted some other messages attacking the union government and Prime Minister Modi. However, those retweets ended up pointing fingers at Kejriwal himself.

The first of these retweets, while he was in the middle of fight with Captain, was a retweet of an AAP-leaning humour-parody account titled “History of India”. It attacked Modi for not acting against UPA corruption after coming to power.

Arvind Kejriwal retweets
Assumption is that public won’t question Arvind Kejriwal ever?

Discounting the fact that most of the corruption cases are sub-judice and the government can’t be expected to influence judiciary (and when government went after cases like National Herald or corruption in Delhi secretariat that went back to Sheila Dixit regime, Arvind Kejriwal too had joined chorus of political vendetta), the irony was lost on Kejriwal himself who claimed to have 370 pages proof against Sheila Dixit.

Perhaps he was sure that the humour-parody account won’t point out this irony, so he re-tweeted happily.

The second of these ironical retweets came up after he gave up on Twitter fight with Captain. It was a retweet of news blog Janta Ka Reporter, better acknowledged as a mouthpiece of Aam Aadmi Party. It questioned why media didn’t discuss snoopgate, which was related to “private life” of Narendra Modi.

Kejriwal retweets
No one in media discusses private life of Arvind Kejriwal. And is it about private lives of Varun and Sandeep, or misuse of public posts?

Perhaps Kejriwal forgot that media did discuss snoopgate, and it was even an election issue before the 2014 general elections. However, this tweet exposes the irony that “Aaloogate” was never discussed by any media. In case you’re wondering, Aaloogate refers to claims of a journalist and former aide of Arvind Kejriwal, who accused him of having extra-marital affairs with a girl 16 years younger to him.

All leading media organisations and journalists have kept mum on this, and now Kejriwal wonders why private life of Narendra Modi is not discussed.

And the final retweet, completing hat-trick of irony, came up when Kejriwal re-tweeted Congress leader Salman Khurshid claiming rising intolerance in the country while citing examples of isolated and fabricated incidents.

Kejriwal retweets
Achchhe din for sure as Mr. Khurshid, who had dared Kejriwal to visit his constituency and go back safely, is now being retweeted by Kejriwal.

This retweet came within a day after Arvind Kejriwal had asked Captain Amarinder Singh as to why BJP folks were supporting the Congress leader in the twitter fight. It is true that many BJP supporters were indeed supporting Captain by re-tweeting his tweets.

But by his own logic, why is he now re-tweeting a Congress leader? Sab mile huye hain ji?

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