The researchers from the Tata Institute of Social Sciences have claimed that Coronavirus in the Mumbai city had reached the stage of community transmission before the lockdown was implemented, but the infected cases were detected only after the number of samplings increased.
An analysis published in the Indian Journal of Public Health claims, “The spread of the virus in Mumbai in April showed a linear growth, and it is possible that the lockdown prevented exponential growth. However, the virus seems to be ahead of the testing curve and as testing rates improve, a clearer picture will emerge.”
Lockdown prevented the exponential rise in coronavirus cases
Reportedly, the data collected zone-wise and ward-wise saw a rise in the COVID-19 cases. It also claimed that some wards are much more affected than the others. It also claimed that lockdown prevented an exponential rise in the coronavirus cases in the city.
The research paper said, “However, the virus seems to be ahead of the testing curve and as testing rates improve, a clearer picture will emerge. Moreover, the number of cases in the four most economically critical wards is less, and they also have a slower spread of infection. These wards have a large inflow of population during working hours from other wards as people travel to work in the offices and industries located in these wards. As the lockdown was already in place when this study was conducted, it is possible that the lockdown measures prevented a larger spread of the virus within these wards.”
Random testing exercise initiated by ICMR
Indian Council of Medical Research also initiated an exercise to randomly take samples from the severe acute respiratory illness patients unknowing of the origin of infection. It is stated that from late February to April 2, 3 percent of those patients have been found infected by corona virus across 36 districts. But the government has not published the full list of these district.
ICMR in association with other collaborators had published data last week in which it revealed that 14 percent of all the confirmed cases till April 30 across the country emerged through community transmission. Other 44 per cent were suspected cases for the same as their contact histories or categories under which they have been tested were not documented properly.
Mumbai has reported 34,018 confirmed cases and more than a thousand deaths by Tuesday morning. The city reportedly witnessed a spike in corona virus cases of over 375 times within 50 days of lock down.