Voting for the Delhi Assembly elections is to be held on February 5, 2025. The results are set to be declared on February 8. Before the election, all the parties have put in their full effort to sway the voters in their favour. BJP and AAP are putting in their maximum efforts with all their major leaders campaigning. Congress, which drew a blank in the last 2 elections, is also putting in serious efforts this time.
While BJP wants to end the drought of two and a half decades in Delhi Assembly, AAP wants to score a hat-trick of wins. Congress is also trying to regain its lost ground.
The survey ahead of elections has increased AAP’s concerns
Meanwhile, a survey by C Voter agency has come out ahead of the elections, which may increase AAP’s concerns. C Voter has published this survey on the basis of data collected till February 1. According to the survey of C Voter, 43.9% of the people of Delhi are angry with the work of the current AAP government. These people have said that they want a change in the government.
At the same time, 38.3% people say that they are not angry with the work of the government and do not want to change it. There is also 10.9% population that is angry with the work of the government but does not want a change in the government. As per the survey, overall, around 55% people are angry with the incumbent AAP Government.
In the same survey of C Voter, 46.9% people said that they are not angry with the government and do not want any change. The number of people who do not want change has now decreased. This can become a cause of concern for AAP. Because if those people, who are angry, are in the mood to change, then AAP will have problems.
5 big factors will decide the election
5 major factors will decide whether AAP will remain in power or there will be a change after the Delhi elections. The first factor in this will be the division of Muslim votes. There are about 13% Muslim votes in Delhi. This vote was with the Congress before AAP entered Delhi politics. In the 2015 and 2020 elections, this vote went to AAP.
If Congress makes a dent in this and regains some of its lost ground, then AAP is sure to lose both seats and vote share. This time. Congress is directly attacking its national ally Arvind Kejriwal during campaigning, in such a situation AAP may suffer losses. The second major factor is the Dalit vote.
This vote also used to be with the Congress earlier. Apart from AAP, BJP has also made a dent in this votebank. BJP is working on the Dalit vote at the local level in Delhi like they did in Haryana and Maharashtra. BJP has assured the Dalits that it will continue the already running schemes and will also bring new schemes for their upliftment.
BJP has promised to provide permanent houses in slums where majority of Dalit population is currently living. It is expected that this scheme will make a major difference. At the same time, Kejriwal’s image has taken a hit in the national capital compared to the last election.
Due to the allegations in the liquor scam case and Kejriwal’s time in jail, his personal brand has not been that strong, while Atishi, who was made CM for a few months, has also not been able to garner that kind of popularity. On the other hand, Narendra Modi’s popularity remains intact. There is no change in the voters’ mind about the Prime Minister.
This time BJP is countering Kejriwal’s politics of ‘free promises’ by countering them with their own announcements. BJP has promised the highest amount of ₹2500 under the Mahila Yojana in Delhi. BJP has also promised to continue the existing old schemes.
Congress vote can also change the government
Congress’s performance in the Delhi Assembly elections can change the course of the election. Congress’s performance has been continuously declining in Delhi. AAP has directly benefited from this. Congress’s vote has completely shifted to AAP in last 2 elections. While BJP may not have won the last 2 elections, it has consistently maintained 35%-40% votes in the state, but Congress vote share saw a steep decline.
While Congress got 35% votes in 2008, it decreased to 24% in 2013. In the 2015 elections, Congress came down to 9.7% and in 2020 it got stuck at 4%.
Congress’s lost vote bank is directly benefiting AAP. Congress has worked with a ‘do or die’ strategy in the 2025 elections. It wants to take back its vote bank from Kejriwal.
Even Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is directly attacking Kejriwal. Kejriwal is being cornered on the issues of Sheeshmahal, liquor scam and Yamuna. Congress wants to hurt AAP at the local level t. If the vote share of Congress crosses 10% again, Kejriwal will face a lot of problems.
