Bihar has now become the focal point of political discussion in the country. The Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) campaign to update and verify the voter list before the assembly elections has the Opposition spooked and rattled, as if they suspect losing their voter banks if the ECI merely does its constitutionally mandated job.
EC’s aim is to purge the voter list of illegitimate voters and it seems to be proving effective as substantial discrepancies have been identified by the officials. However, the I.N.D.I. Alliance or Mahagathbandhan in the state led by Tejashwi Yadav, former deputy chief minister and the current leader of the opposition in the legislative assembly, is particularly outraged by the action, alleging voter fraud, ‘an attack on democracy’ and even threatening to boycott the election.
They contend that the government is ‘disenfranchising’ voters. The opposition is understandably upset, as many of these individuals are their supporters.
Notwithstanding the outrageous political accusations, the fact remains that the election commission has acted solely to correct a long-standing issue and update the voter list to maintain the sanctity of the elections. Notably, a research paper by professors from the prestigious institutions also cautioned about the same and indicated that there are more than 70 lakh bogus voters in Bihar.
Election Commission’s shocking revelations
On 25th July, the Bihar Election Commission declared that 99.8% of the state’s voters were included in the ongoing process. Over 77,000 Booth Level Officers (BLOs), almost 3,000 assistant officers and more than 1.6 lakh Booth Level Agents (BLAs) representing all main parties are assisting in this extensive revision.
Election Commission of India says, "7.23 crore Bihar electors express full faith in SIR process with active participation. 99.8% Bihar electors have been covered so far. Forms of 7.23 crore electors have been received and digitised." pic.twitter.com/7F3OwKV1bf
— ANI (@ANI) July 25, 2025
The chief electoral officer (CEO) informed that over 7.23 crore voter forms have been received and converted to digital format and their names will be made public on 1st August. It is also anticipated that the BLOs would be able to complete the rest of the forms and reports by that date.
The drive disclosed that 35 lakh people were either untraceable or had permanently relocated, 22 lakhs were labeled as deceased and 7 lakh voters were enrolled in multiple locations while about 1.2 lakh forms are pending.
On 20th July Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Communist Party of India (Marxist) were among the 12 political parties who were given access to a list of voters who had either passed away, moved or failed to submit their forms. The was done to review and voice any concerns prior to the finalisation of the Draft Roll.
How the transparent process is carried out smoothly to ensure every single voter is counted
The Election Commission announced that more than 7.24 crore of the 7.89 crore voters as of 24th June, turned in their enumeration forms, demonstrating a resounding turnout.
The CEO (Chief Electoral Officer) of Bihar, DEOs (District Election Officers) from all 38 districts, 243 EROs (Electoral Registration Officers), 2,976 AEROs (Assistant Electoral Registration Officers), BLOs stationed at 77,895 polling places, lakhs of volunteers have been working alongside field representatives from all 12 major political parties including their District Presidents and up to 1.60 lakh BLAs appointed by them.
All 5.7 crore recorded cellphone numbers of electors who had submitted their numbers received SMSs outlining the procedure. CEOs, DEOs and EROs initiated multiple efforts to educate voters about SIR during the enumeration period. Furthermore, CEOs, DEOs and EROs met with political parties on multiple occasions to inform them of the progress and explain the procedure.
BLAs who were chosen by the political parties met with BLOs at the booth level for the same reason. Additionally, the former were also permitted to submit 50 Enumeration Forms daily to confirm their comprehensive engagement.
BLOs visited every house to distribute Enumeration Forms and approached every voter whose name was on the electoral records as of 24th June. Afterward, they made at least three trips to pick up the completed forms. Similalrly, volunteers and BLAs also talked to voters and followed the due process to make sure nobody is left out.
Research paper by IIM alumni, professors also exposed the truth
The SIR operation is successfully eliminating the fraudulent or ineligible voters. However, as mentioned earlier, a research paper authored by Dr. Milan Kumar from IIM Calcutta, working as Assistant Professor at the Indian Institute of Management Visakhapatnam and Dr. Vidhu Shekhar, Assistant Professor at S P Jain Institute of Management & Research, an alumnus of IIT Kharagpur and IIM Calcutta, has also unveiled that Bihar contains a significant number of fake voters.
The study was released in July of this year and titled, “Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction. It used a demographic accounting identity to simulate the eligible voter base in Bihar for 2025.
The number of people from Bihar’s 2003 voter list who were probably still living in 2025 was calculated in order to create a “demographically sound adjustment to the historical voter base, accounting for natural attrition (removal) over a 22-year period.” This served as the first essential component for calculating the actual number of eligible voters in Bihar in 2025, regardless of roll inflation or enumeration errors.
The adult age distribution from the 2001 Census was utilized as the electoral roll is not age-coded. According to the EC, there were 4.96 crore registered voters in Bihar in 2003.
The methodology
The paper underlined, “All estimates are derived from official sources, including Census data, SRS Abridged Life Tables and validated demographic literature. The modeling framework applies a deliberately conservative bias to avoid overstating the discrepancy.”
The Registrar General of India’s 2011-2015 and 2018-2022 SRS Abridged Life Tables were utilised which gives “lx values, that is, survivors out of a synthetic cohort of 100,000 births to a given age.” Afterward, “the values for the ages of interest were extracted and averaged” followed by “linear interpolation.”
Survivors cohort (group of people who are around the same age) = Cohort Size x Survival Probability was the formula used to figure out how many voters survived in each group.
After computations, it was determined that 3.41 crore people from Bihar’s 2003 voter list were eligible, anticipating no migration. It served as a reliable starting point for calculating the number of eligible voters. “This estimate had been based on: Disaggregated voter list using Census-based age structure, state-specific mortality data from Sample Registration System (SRS) and linear interpolation where necessary,” the paper highlighted.
The paper pointed out that therefore, this component (data) represented a baseline adjustment to the historical voter list and is both demographically rigorous as well as policy-relevant.
New voters who were born between 1985 to 2007
Individuals who “were born between 1985 and 2007 ” and “thus turned 18 years of age between 2003 and 2025” as well as were “still alive in 2025” were quantified by the researchers. A two-step demographic approach was used for the estimation: annual birth cohort sizes were calculated and then age-specific survival probabilities obtained from life tables were applied to identify “the number of survivors alive in 2025.”
The formula Births year = (CBR year/1000) ∗ Population year was used to assess the number of people born in each year. According to the paper the “CBR is the Crude Birth Rate (births per 1,000 people) and population is the estimated total population of Bihar in that year.”
The Ministry of Health Family Welfare’s Central Bureau of Health Intelligence (CBHI) supplied the estimated CBR values. The estimations for pre-1991 years (1985-2000) were derived using backcasting from Census and National Family Health Survey (NFHS) information.
Survival probabilities were calculated once annual birth cohort sizes were determined to find the number of people who were expected to survive in 2025. The formula “Survivors (year) = Births (year) x Survival Probability (age) where: age = 2025 – birth year” was applied. The research paper noted, “Hybrid average of lx values from the sources: SRS Abridged Life Tables 2011-2015 and SRS Abridged Life Tables 2018-2022” were used.
It further mentioned the reason and noted, “This hybridization is methodologically justified because the SRS 2011-2015 data reflect survival conditions relevant for mid-life and older cohorts who were born in the 1980s and early 1990s. The SRS 2018-2022 data captures more recent improvements or distortions in survival, especially for younger age groups. Averaging these periods offers a balanced estimate, smoothing over any year-specific anomalies.”
For every birth year between 1985 and 2007, the relevant survival probability (based on age in 2025) was multiplied by the predicted cohort size (based on CBR and population). This was executed for 23 cohorts annually. “The final output yielded the number of individuals from each cohort alive and eligible to vote in 2025,” the paper outlined.
The stated that the population of individuals born between 1985 and 2006, aged 19 to 40 in 2025, is 4.61 crore. Likewise, 0.22 crore were born in 2007 and would be 18 years old in 2025, which raised the total to 4.83 crore.
The paper underscored, “This cohort-based methodology, grounded in official demographic data, provides a robust and transparent estimate of the number of new legal voters added to the Bihar electorate between 2003 and 2025.”
Permanent net outmigration between 2003-2025
The study then concentrated on a “conservative estimate” of Bihar’s “permanent outmigration” from 2003 to 2025, presuming that the annual permanent migration rate had not increased following the 2001-2011 decade. It added, “This scenario is useful as a lower-bound benchmark for adjusting Bihar’s 2025 projected voter base.”
Individuals who have resided outside of Bihar for a year or more (ideally more than or equal to five years) are considered permanent outmigrants. Their reasons included marriage, work or moving with family. The paper clarified that the assessment did not include transitory migrants, such as students, seasonal workers or those on short-term contracts.
73 lakh people moved from Bihar to other Indian states for work, marriage and family relocation, according to the 2011 Census. Employment, marriage and shifting locations by family were the main migratory factors linked to long-term relocation. The primary criteria for identifying permanent migrants were duration of residence (greater than or equal to) 1 year which is a standard threshold for permanent migration in Census reporting.
The paper then conveyed that “based on Census tabulations and supporting analysis from scholarly/literature, approximately 75-85% of interstate migrants from Bihar are considered long-term or permanent.” A conservative lower estimate of 75% was used to ascertain that there were 54.75 lakh permanent migrants between 2001 and 2011. The number of permanent migrants from 2003 to 2011 was then found to be 43.8 lakh, assuming consistent migration over the ten-year period.
The researchers then made estimates for the 14-year period from 2011 to 2025, assuming that the annual permanent migration rate from 2001 to 2011 would remain constant. “This is a conservative estimate as research indicates that outmigration from Bihar has been an increasing trend,” the paper stated. Thus, the number of permanent migrants (2011–2025) came out to be 76.65 lakh and the annual rate was shown to be 5.475 lakh.
The paper highlighted, “The inward migration to Bihar is very low and hence has not been accounted for. As a rough indicator, from the 2011 Census, the total population of Bihar is estimated at 103,804,637. On this, we have inward inter-state migrant workers per 20-11 census of 7,06,557, which gives an inward migration rate of 0.68% for Bihar.”
The inward migration statistic was 8.8 lakh, based on the same rate as the most recent non-census estimate of Bihar’s population of 13 crore from the 2023 caste census. The paper emphassied that Ii was a total inbound migration, not just the number of permanent inward migrants. The number served as the permanent inward migration figure to calculate the 1.12 crore permanent outmigrants from 2003 to 2025.
Despite improvements in labour market conditions, education and infrastructure, the estimated projected no rise in interstate migration pressure . It provided a purposeful undercount of permanent migrants to guarantee conservative voter base adjustment in Bihar. The approach was in line with demographic modelling procedures, which aim to limit uncertainty from both the top and the bottom.
The researchers articulated, “Using a fixed migration rate from the 2001-2011 period, the estimated number of permanent net outmigrants from Bihar between 2003 and 2025 is: 1.12 crore. This figure ensures conservatism in voter base adjustments while maintaining demographic credibility.”
The startling conclusion
This thorough analysis uses demographic reconstruction procedures to produce a methodologically sound estimate of Bihar’s legitimate voter population in 2025. There were 3.41 crore voters who survived the 2003 election. 4.83 crore new voters were born between 1985 and 2007, 1.12 crore people left the state permanently and 7.12 crore people were calculated to be eligible voters in 2025.
The paper then pointed out, “Compared to the official electoral roll of 7.89 crore, this suggests a potential inflation of 77 Lakh voters (9.7%). This analysis employs conservative assumptions throughout to avoid overstating discrepancies, making it a credible baseline for policy discussions regarding electoral roll integrity in Bihar.” Additionally, it identified the reasons behind the significant disparity.
- “Non-removal of migrants: Voters who migrate out do not file Form 8 to deregister, leaving them on both origin and destination lists.
- Duplicate entries: The absence of a unified electoral roll allows individuals to remain registered in multiple states.
- Inclusion of undocumented residents: Urban slums and border districts are particularly vulnerable to informal or fraudulent registration.”
The paper also mentioned that the Election Commission of India has started a Special Intensive Review (SIR), pointing to these considerations as potential causes of problems that could exist in the Bihar electoral roll. Additionally, it stated that this kind of inflation creates grave issues about duplication, incorrect inclusions and the failure to purge ineligible people.
“The paper demonstrates the value of demographic accounting in electoral administration and provides a framework that could be applied to other states facing similar challenges with voter roll maintenance and migration-related adjustments,” it added.
According to the paper, the shocking result provides strong support for Bihar’s electoral record to undergo Special Intensive Revision (SIR). The main problems noted in this demographic analysis would be resolved by a SIR which would allow thorough voter eligibility verification, duplicate entry removal, the elimination of deceased and migrated voters and systematic field verification.
It further asserted, “The magnitude of potential roll inflation documented here provides strong empirical justification for such an intensive administrative intervention.”
Political theatrics attempt overshadow the integrity of the democratic process
Not only the Election Commission but also a prominent research paper has concluded that there are fraudulent voters on the electoral list that must be eliminated to ensure a fair election. However, the opposition, which was kept informed and participated in the entire initiative, is now making accusations solely for political gain.
The officials are available at every stage to address grievances and rectify the problems identified by individuals or political parties. Nevertheless, the Mahagathbandhan and its ecosystems, instead of raising the genuine concerns of the populace, are determined to turn this important measure into a contentious issue.
Chief election commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar rightly responded, “Should we be swayed by these attacks and allow bogus votes to be cast in the name of deceased, permanently shifted, enrolled at two or more places or illegal foreign immigrants? First in the state and then across the country?”
While the opposition can continue to cry foul and partake in political games, the pressing issue remains that the fake voters needed to be flushed out in the interest of the democracy and the rightful voters to guarantee that the entire electoral process is just and honest.
