Thursday, September 24, 2020
Home News Reports Demographic time bomb : Falling fertility rates indicate that percentage of Hindu population will...

Demographic time bomb : Falling fertility rates indicate that percentage of Hindu population will further decline

Earlier this month a petitioner filed a PIL in the Supreme court asking the court to rule in favour of a 2 child policy. The petitioner said that population explosion would damage the environment immensely and hence this measure is required. The Supreme court has agreed to hear this petition.

In November 2017, the Supreme Court turned down another petition that demanded minority status for Hindus in 8 states/ union territories. The states/ union territories where Hindus are a numerical minority are Lakshadweep, Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Punjab.

However, the data from NFHS -4 2015-16 released last year suggests that Hindus are not only following 2 child policy in most of the states but are producing less than 2 children.

Some terminologies

- Advertisement -

Before going into an analysis of the NFHS data we need to understand some terminologies.

TFR (Total fertility rate: The number of children who would be born per woman (or per 1,000 women) if she/they were to pass through the childbearing years bearing children according to a current schedule of age-specific fertility rates. [Source: Wikipedia]

Roughly speaking, TFR is the number of children borne by a woman in the age where she is capable of reproduction.

Replacement Rate of fertility: “Replacement level fertility” is the total fertility rate—the average number of children born per woman—at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. [Source: Wikipedia]

The replacement rate of fertility is basically the minimum number of children that a couple needs to reproduce to replace themselves. The replacement rate of fertility is accepted as ‘2.1’, ie TFR of 2.1 is considered as replacement ratio of fertility.

Hindu TFR is well below replacement rate of fertility in most of the states

NFHS -4 takes into account the total fertility rate for the three years preceding the survey (i.e 2015-16). If we analyse the TFR ratio of most of the states, we find that the Hindu TFR is less than or close to the replacement ratio in most of the states. The data is presented region-wise in below graphs. The meaning of a TFR below 2 is that the Hindu population is well below the ideal replacement ratio. As the TFR of Muslim women is greater than 2, it indicates that the population percentage of Muslims in India will rise if the same trend continues. From the below graph it is quite evident that the chances of quickest demographic change are highest in Haryana.

From the petition demanding minority status for Hindus, we are aware that Hindus are already a minority in many of the North East states. If one looks at the TFR of Hindus and other faiths, it is quite clear that they will remain a minority population if the status quo remains as it is.

Eastern India is the most densely populated regions of India. Here the growth of population is highest in comparison to rest of the country. From the data, we can see that the Hindu and Muslim TFR is highest in Bihar. However, in states of Odisha and Chattisgarh, both Hindu and Muslim TFRs seem to be stabilising towards 2. The Christian population in these two states is growing at the fastest pace as per recent data.

Western states again demonstrate that the TFR among Hindus is below two except in Rajasthan. However, the gap between Hindu and Muslim TFRs is significant in all these states. The third largest group in Rajasthan is Sikh. Buddhists form the third largest group in Maharashtra. The grey bar in the data pertains to Christians in Goa and Gujarat. It must be noted that the gap in TFR in Goa and Rajasthan is higher than one in these two states.

 

The total fertility rate seems to be stabilising towards two (i.e replacement fertility rate) in most of the southern states. In spite of this fact, the gap between Hindus and Muslims is significant as Hindu TFRs are well below 2 (especially Kerala) in these states. However, in Tamil Nadu, Christian TFR is higher than both Hindu and Muslim TFR. 

Lessons from NFHS -4 data on TFR 

The data on total fertility rate among major religions suggests that Hindu women are on an average producing less than one kid in almost all states. However, an average Muslim woman is producing more than 2 kids in almost all states. If the current trend in TFR continues at the same pace, the percentage of Hindu population will go down further. The pace of this decline will be decided by three factors

  • Rate of reduction or increase in TFR of Hindu women
  • Rate of reduction or increase in TFR of Muslim women
  • Use of contraception and government policies on the issue of population control/stabilisation

The percentage of Hindu population has declined from 80.5% to 79.8% in the period of 2001-2011. The Muslim percentage of Muslim population has increased from 13.4% to 14.3%. Simple math suggests that if the 1% decline of Hindus continues for 30 decades, the population of two will be equal. Therefore the demographic challenge is real, though the time frame may be long or short. If not us, the future generation will definitely face the consequences of this demography change, if the gap in TFR does not reduce.

Liberal media usually laughs off the ‘fear’ of Hindus becoming a minority in their own land. However, the data above suggests that the fear is not illogical or unfounded. The demographic time bomb is ticking and it is only a matter of time before the ‘minority’ status for Hindus will be needed in most of the states by the end of this century.

  Support Us  

Whether NDTV or 'The Wire', they never have to worry about funds. In name of saving democracy, they get money from various sources. We need your support to fight them. Please contribute whatever you can afford

Related Articles

Trending now

Monsoon session of Lok Sabha concludes, becomes the most productive session in the history with productivity rate of 167%

September 20 was the most productive day of the current session 17th Lok Sabha with 234 per cent of productivity.

Rana Ayyub lies again, this time while writing an ode to the old lady protestor at Shaheen Bagh for Time’s 100 most influential people...

Rana has written that Shaheen Bagh protestor 'Bilkis' was sitting to protest against the CAA that could "block Muslims from citizenship".

Deepika Padukone, Sara Ali Khan, three others summoned by NCB in Bollywood drug probe

Deepika’s name had emerged in the drug abuse probe earlier this week after her WhatsApp conversations went viral.

BJP govt must be careful about ecosystem trying to engineer price rises

BJP government needs to watch out about what comes next. The so called “age of controls” may be over, but the mentality of that era might not be.

No coercive step against Facebook exec for ‘role’ in Delhi riots, says Delhi Assembly panel after SC sends notice

Dehi Assembly panel had sent summons to Facebook India head Atul Mohan alleging ‘deliberate inaction’ by the social media giant against alleged hate speech that ‘culminated in the Delhi riots’

Complaint filed against William Dalrymple for flouting visa norms, trying to interfere in India’s internal affairs

Supreme Court advocate and author Monika Arora has stated that William Dalrymple has violated visa norms by trying to interfere in India's democratic process and trample on her freedom of expression.

Recently Popular

KWAN representative told me that I need to attend Karan Johar Parties to make a comeback to movies: Suchitra Krishnamoorthi

One of the main things is that you need to be seen at Karan Johar's parties, KWAN representative had told Suchitra Krishnamoorthi

‘Are your breasts real? Can I touch?’ Actress Sherlyn Chopra accuses KWAN talent agency co-founder of sexual misconduct

Bollywood actress Sherlyn Chopra on Tuesday took to Twitter to call out sexual misconduct of KWAN talent agency co-founder Anirban Blah.

Nikhil Dwivedi, filmmaker and director of talent agency owned by Salman Khan, claims latter did not buy stakes in KWAN. Read details

Uniworld Big Talent (UBT) owned by Salman Khan, holds major stakes in Big Bang Media Venture, the holding company which owns KWAN.

Casting director of Rhea Chakraborty’s debut film ‘Jalebi’ among 10 Bollywood personalities to have died in the past few months. Read the details here

A post containing the list of recent deaths of Bollywood celebs and the alleged reasons behind their deaths is being widely shared.

Goa Police arrests actress Poonam Pandey’s husband Sam Ahmed Bombay for assaulting and molesting her

Born and brought up in United Arab Emirates, Sam is an ad-filmmaker and a producer. He had done projects with celebrities like Akshay Kumar, Ranbir Kapoor and Deepika Padukone amongst others.

Mumbai Police made actress Payal Ghosh wait till 2 AM, did not file sexual assault complaint against Anurag Kashyap: Reports

The BMC declared her society a containment zone to prevent the actress from filing a complaint.

Monsoon session of Lok Sabha concludes, becomes the most productive session in the history with productivity rate of 167%

September 20 was the most productive day of the current session 17th Lok Sabha with 234 per cent of productivity.

Former Amnesty India head Aakar Patel arrested for tweets on PM Narendra Modi, BJP-RSS and Ghanchi caste; released on bail

Aakar Patel was arrested by Surat Police on a complaint filed by BJP MLA from Surat West constituency Purnesh Modi

Minister of State for Railways Suresh Angadi succumbs to Coronavirus

Minister of State for Railways Suresh Angadi passed away at the AIIMS in New Delhi, he had tested positive for Coronavirys on 11 Septemter

Properties made available for sale or rent only to Muslims appear on several real estate portals

Even in a cosmopolitan city such as Mumbai, bigoted homeowners actively discriminate between tenants.

KWAN representative told me that I need to attend Karan Johar Parties to make a comeback to movies: Suchitra Krishnamoorthi

One of the main things is that you need to be seen at Karan Johar's parties, KWAN representative had told Suchitra Krishnamoorthi

CBI carries out multiple raids along India-Bangladesh border; BSF officer and 3 others booked in illegal cattle trade case

A BSF officer along with 3 others booked by the CBI in connection with the illegal cattle trade along India-Bangladesh border

Pakistan plans to turn illegally occupied Gilgit-Baltistan into a province; the decision to benefit China and CPEC

Pakistan government have received support from all parties to convert Gilgit Baltistan into a full province of the country

Rana Ayyub lies again, this time while writing an ode to the old lady protestor at Shaheen Bagh for Time’s 100 most influential people...

Rana has written that Shaheen Bagh protestor 'Bilkis' was sitting to protest against the CAA that could "block Muslims from citizenship".

Nepali Youths protest outside the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu against Chinese construction on Nepali territory in Humla

China has reportedly constructed multiple buildings in the Humla region of Nepal and the Chinese troops are staying in them.

Kerala govt to take action against media houses alleging defamatory reports on state secretariat fire incident

Apart from filing case under CrPC, Kerala govt will also complain against media with the Press Council alleging defaming reports

Connect with us

244,181FansLike
454,729FollowersFollow
16,700SubscribersSubscribe