In the serene backwaters and mesmerising landscapes of Kerala, stealth but profound demographic change is ongoing. Beyond the flex of high literacy rates and “progressive” social indices, this south Indian state is witnessing an alarming shift in religious composition which is inevitable to have an impact on Kerala’s religious, cultural, political and social fabric. A recent report published by think-tank Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) delves into the interplay of fertility rates and religious demographics. The report raises concerns over possible religious-demographic imbalances in the states.
On 30th January 2025, CPS India released its report titled Religious Demography of India: Rising Religious Imbalance in the Declining Fertility Regime of Kerala. The report analyses data from the Annual Vital Statistics Report from 2008 to 2021 on birth rates and deaths by religious communities in Kerala.
The share of Muslims in live births went up, but the share of Hindus and Christians in live births declined
The CPS India analysis found that Muslims in Kerala overtook the Hindus who form 54% of the state’s population in total live births after 2015. In the year 2019, out of the total live births, Muslims had a share of 44% while Hindus had a share of 41%. It must be noted that Muslims, as per the 2011 census are around 27% in Kerala.
Between 2008 and 2021, the share of Muslims in total live births witnessed a significant increase and in specific years even overtaken Hindus while the Hindu community’s share in total live births dropped significantly with similar trends recorded on Christian total live births.
In the year 2008, the live births of Hindus were 2,41,305 (45.04%), Muslims 1,94,583 (36.32%), and Christians 94,175 (17.58%). In 2009, the numbers went up for Hindus (45.51%) and Muslims (37.61%), but Christian live births saw a slight decline (16.61%). In 2010, Hindu live births were recorded at 2,46,297 (45.03%), Muslim live birth count stood at 2,09276 (38.26%) while Christian live births further declined to 88,936 (16.26%). In 2011, Hindu, Muslim and Christian live births recorded a noticeable increase although this was the last time Kerala’s total live births went up to 5,60,268 only to witness a perpetual decline in the following years.
In 2012, live births of both Hindu and Muslim communities in Kerala saw a sharp drop while the numbers crossed 1 lakh mark for the first and the last time between the years 2008 to 2021. Surprisingly, in 2013, the numbers for Hindus and Muslims as per official data went up while the Christian live births were reduced dramatically from 1,025,46 to 84,660.
The year 2014 saw an increase in Muslim live births but a decline in the numbers for Hindus and Christians. From 2015 onwards, while live births among Muslims went up and down, Hindu annual live births have continuously slumped and the same goes for Christians. In 2015, Hindu live births were 2,221,220 (42.87%), Muslim live births were 2,13,865 (41.45%) and Christian live births were 79,565 (15.42%) while the total live births in the state that included other minority groups like Buddhists, Jains, Sikhs alongside RNS or those who did not state their religion stood at 5,16,013.
In 2016, Muslims with 2,11,182 live births (42.88%) overtook Hindus who had 2,07,831 live births (41.55%) while Christian annual live births that year further slumped to 76,205 (15.35%).
The year 2017 was the last time between 2008 and 2021 time period that the annual live births in Kerala crossed the 5-lakh mark recording 5,03,597 total live births. In 2018, Kerala recorded a sharp fall in total live births. While Hindu live births fell from 2,10,071 in 2017 to 2,03, 158 in 2018, Muslim live birth also saw a slight reduction from 2,16,525 in 2017 to 2,13, 805.
In the year 2019, Hindu live births came down to 1,97,061 while Muslim live births stood at 2,12,933 and Christian live births were recorded at 68,596. In 2020 and 2021, Hindu live births further went down to 1,85, 411 and 1,81,396 respectively. Muslim live births in 2020 were recorded 1,96, 138, however, in the following year, the number came down to 1,69, 296. The Christian live births went from 62,265 in 2020 to 59,766 in 2021.
Highlighting the fall in Kerala’s total live births from 2008 to 2021, the CPS India report says, “The number of births in Kerala rose from 5.36 lakh in 2008 to the peak of 5.60 lakh in 2011. From there, it declined rapidly to reach 5.16 lakh in 2015. It has further declined to 4.46 lakhs in 2020 and 4.20 lakhs in 2021. The live births in 2021 are a quarter below the number in 2011. This, of course, is an indicator of the declining fertility of Kerala. The TFR in Kerala had fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 already by the early nineties as estimated in the first round of the National Family Health Survey of 1992-93. It has fallen to 1.46 in 2021 according to the annual vital statistics report for that year.”
The research raises concerns that with Total Fertility Rates perpetually remaining below replacement levels for over three decades, not only a decline in total live births is nearly inevitable but there is also the risk of population shrinking.
The data compiled by the Centre for Policy Studies indicates that the share of Kerala’s Hindu majority in total live births has perpetually decreased while that of Muslims who are the second largest religious community in the state has dramatically surged. The share of Christians in total live births peaked for once in 2011 and since then has continuously declined.
“The share of Muslims in total live births has been rising consistently since 2008. The rise was somewhat slower up to 2011 and has been more rapid since then. This rising trend has led to the share of Muslims in live births overtaking that of Hindus after 2015. This is remarkable, because the share of Muslims in the total population of Kerala was less than half that of Hindus in the Census of 2011,” the CPS report reads.
“The data shows a peaking of the share of Muslims at 44.35 percent of all live births in 2019. After that, there is a slight decline in 2020 and, as we have mentioned earlier, a further sharp decline to 40.33 percent in 2021. However, as we see later, this decline in the share of Muslims and a corresponding rise in that of Hindus and Christians is accompanied by the number of deaths among Hindus becoming almost equal to the live births. In case of Christians, recorded deaths in 2021 exceed the number of live births, thus leading to a shrinking of their population,” it adds.
Share of Muslims in live births way higher than their share in total population: A deliberate attempt to bring demographic change?
Between the time period of 2008 to 2019, the share of Muslims in live births has increased from 36.3% to 44.4% while the share of Hindus has correspondingly declined from 45.0 %to 41.0% and that of Christians from 17.6 to 14.3%. In simple terms, Muslim share in live births in this time period increased by 8%, while that of Hindus went down by 4% and that of Christians by 3.3%. This means that the Muslim share in live births is much higher than their total share in Kerala’s population. As 2011 census data, the Muslim population in the state is 8,873,472, which is 26.56% of the total population.
“According to Census 2011, Muslims in Kerala form only 26.6 percent of the population. But their share in the live births in 2019 is as high as 44.4 percent. On the other hand, Hindus have a share of 54.7 percent in the population, but their share in live births is only 41.0 percent. For Christians also, their share of 14.3 percent in total live births is far below their share of 18.4 percent in the population. Stated in other terms, the share of Muslims in live births is two-thirds more than their share in the population, while that of Hindus and Christians is a quarter less than of their share in the population,” the CPS report states.
Notably, this disproportionate increase of Muslim live births while their share in Kerala’s total population is way lesser is not something that began after 2008. In fact, CPS India’s 2016 report found that between 2001 and 2011, Muslims had a decadal growth of a massive 12.84% while the Hindus despite being the majority group had a decadal growth of a miniscule 2.23% and the decadal growth of Christians was 1.38%.
“As a consequence of this differential growth, the share of Muslims in the state has increased by 1.84 percentage points at the cost of both Hindus and Christians who have lost 1.44 and 0.64 percentage points, respectively, from their share in 2001,” the CPS’s 2016 report reads adding that Muslims have always been growing faster than the Hindus and Christians since 1951, however, the gap between the growth rates of Muslims and Hindus and Christians has constantly widened over the decades.
It must be recalled that back in 2017, P K D Nambiar, President of the National Foundation for Justice and Development had raised alarm over Muslim birth rates being far higher than their share in Kerala’s total population. “While the birth rate of Hindus and Christians has marked a decline, the Muslim birth rate in the state has been rising steadily, according to a vital statistics report 2015, prepared by the economics and statistics department. Hindus in the state will become a minority by 2025,” Nambiar said adding that the societal changes seen in Kerala is due to this “strategic planning” and that the ‘secular’ government in the state may have facilitated this demographic change conspiracy as a part of their Muslim votebank appeasement politics.
Coming back to the latest report published by the Centre for Policy Studies, the report outlined that a higher share of Muslims in annual live births reflects in their higher TFR. The report relies on the findings of the last four rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) to assert that the TFR of Muslims has been around 50 percent higher than that of Hindus in every round, except NFHS-4.
While noting that NFHS is based on a very limited sample set, the CPS report said, “It is remarkable that while the total fertility of the State was below the replacement level already in the first round and has been declining further, the TFR of Muslims has remained above the replacement level, if we ignore the anomalous numbers of the fourth round.”
The large change in the relative proportion of Muslims in Kerala, the CPS report points out, has occurred in a period when the total fertility rate of Kerala has been below the replacement level for nearly three decades and all other religious communities have apparently entered the phase of demographic decline.
Interestingly, a 2023 study titled Hindu-Muslim fertility differentials in India said that the TFR of Kerala Muslims was 2.25 while the TFR of Kerala Hindus was 1.53 in 2019.
Total death rates in Kerala consistent between 2008-2021 but the share of Muslims was dramatically lesser than their population
The data compiled by CPS shows that, unlike the total live birth numbers where one community recorded a perpetual increase with few points of reduction, the number of total deaths is relatively consistent. “If we leave out the number of deaths in 2008, which seems abnormally low, and for 2021, which is abnormally high, the number of total deaths for the remaining years has been fluctuating around 2,50,000 per annum during this period,” the report says.
Interestingly, while the share of Muslims in total live births in Kerala is far higher than their total population, their share in total deaths is far below their share in the total population.
The report says that the share of Muslims has generally been below 20% across the 2008-2021 time period, compared to their share of 26.6 percent in the population. Meanwhile, the share of Hindus in total deaths has hovered around 60%, excluding the anomalous numbers of 2012 and 2021. The share of Hindus in the population is far lower at 54.7% in 2011 which, the CPS report says is likely to have declined further by 2021. On the other hand, the share of Christians in total deaths has been around 19 to 20%, which is also slightly above their share of 18.4 %in the total population. In a nutshell, while Muslims had a way lower share in total death rates compared to their share population, Hindus have the largest share in total death compared to a far lower share in the total population.
Detailing on this pattern of Hindus having a considerably lower share in live births and a high share in deaths, Christians having lower live births but slightly higher deaths and Muslims having significantly higher live births and lower deaths, the report says, “The share of Hindus in the live births is 13.7 percentage points lower and their share in deaths is 6 percent higher than their share in the population of 2011. The share of Christians in the live births is 4 percentage points lower than and their share in total deaths is somewhat higher than their share in population. The share of Muslims is more than 14 percent higher in live births and at least 6 percent lower in total deaths as compared to their share in the population. The gap in the share of live births of different communities has only been growing during the period we are considering, while it has remained more or less steady in the share of deaths.”
Natural accretion highest for Muslims, declining for Hindus and Christians
The report further noted that since Muslims had way higher live births and lower deaths, natural accretion to the Muslim population has been much higher than any other religious community in Kerala. Notably, natural accretion is calculated as the difference between the number of live births and total deaths.
Till 2014, the number of persons added per year was rapidly increasing for Muslims, while it was sharply declining for the Hindu majority and the Christian community. While the natural accretion among Hindus and Christians has been consistently lower than Muslims since 2008, till 2011, natural accretion to the Hindu population was not in as deplorable a state as it turned in the following years.
The alarming situation can be better understood from the fact that in 2011, the natural accretion to the Hindu population stood at 1,00,513. However, in 2017 it dropped to 51,992, in 2020 it further came down to 38,987 and by 2021 there was a massive drop and the number stood at just 1099. By 2021, natural accretion to the Christian population has gone in negative while the numbers for the Muslim community have consistently increased with 2012 and 2021 being the only two years when there was a noticeable drop. From Hindus having 35.42% share, Muslims having 48.02% share and Christians having 15.52% share in natural accretion in 2008 to Hindus having mere 1,37% share, Christians having -7.76% share to Muslims having a whopping 130.09% share in natural accretion in 2021, the threat of demographic change and religious imbalance in Kerala becomes evident.
“If we exclude the anomalous numbers of 2012, the number of persons added per year was rising for Muslims up to 2014. After that, there seems to be a decrease in the number of accretions, but that decrease has been much sharper for Hindus and Christians. If the 2021 numbers can be relied upon, then the number of natural accretions has declined to almost nothing for Hindus and has turned negative for Christians. It seems that all other communities except the Muslims have entered the phase of declining population,” the CPS report points out.
Continuing the trend recorded in the decadal growth for 2001-2011 wherein Muslims had a growth of 12.84%, in the decade 2011 to 2021, the Muslim community’s share in decadal accretion stood at 18.13% with 16,08,360 natural accretion and an estimated population of 10,04,81,832. While the Hindus despite being the majority group who had a decadal growth of a minuscule 2.23% between 2001-2011, recorded 3.52% decadal accretion between 2011-2021 with 6,44,359 natural accretion and an estimated population of 1,89,26,851. Meanwhile, the decadal growth of Christians between 2011-2021 has improved from 1.38% in 2001-2011 to 4.69% which is higher than Hindus.
Notably, the official data indicates that the share of Hindus in Kerala’s total population has dropped from 54.73% in 2011 to 52.61% in 2021. The share of Christians has gone down from 18.38% to 17.87%. Meanwhile, the share of Muslims in the state’s population has skyrocketed from 26.56% to 29.14%.
“Such a growth in the share of Muslims would be considerably more than the long-term trend since 1951. Between 1951 and 2011, their share has grown from 17.53 to 26.56 percent, recording a growth of 9 percentage points in 6 decades, with an average rise in their share of about 1.5 percentage points per decade. There has indeed been a rising trend in the increase in share from decade to decade, but so far, the increase has touched 2 percentage points only once. This was during the decade of 1981-91 when the share of Muslims in the population of the State rose from 21.25 to 23.33 percent. The data on live births and deaths suggests that during the decade of 2011-21, Muslim share is set to rise by about 2.5 percentage points, from 26.56 to 29.14 percent,” the CPS report states.
“The analysis indicates that in a scenario of declining fertility, the imbalance in the growth of different religious communities is likely to become even more pronounced,” the report emphasises.
The CPS report noted that the numbers for 2021 are extremely striking. In 2021, the total population of Kerala grew by only around 80,000. However, Muslims have added over 1 lakh to their population, Hindus have grown have added only 1000 persons, and the number of all others, including Christians, has declined by 25,000.
Last year, a report published by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi (EAC-PM) said that between 1950 and 2015, the population share of Hindus in India declined sharply by 7.8% while Muslim share grew by 43.15%, Christians by 5.38%, and Sikhs by 6.58%. The share of Hindus in India’s population saw a decrease from 84% in 1950 to 78% in 2015, while that of Muslims witnessed an increase from 9.84% to 14.09% in the same period.
At a time, when India’s TFR has fallen below 2 and in several states the situation is even worse, the imbalance in the growth of religious communities will be detrimental to the country. With Muslims having way higher live births and way fewer deaths compared to other communities considering their respective share in total population as data shows in the case of Kerala, it is paramount to compile such data in all other states and take necessary measures to curb religious imbalance and demographic change. This becomes even more crucial when religious conversions and designs of those working on their sinister agenda of carrying out population jihad to outnumber the Hindu majority are taken into consideration. The nationwide demographic change will not come without social, cultural and political consequences.
Besides TFR, legal and illegal immigration, illegal religious conversions of Hindus to Islam and Christianity also impact the population of Hindus not just in Kerala but in other states of India. In Kerala, time again the religious leaders of the Hindu and Christian communities as well as politicians have raised concerns about the menace of love jihad (grooming jihad) which they deem a sinister conspiracy to alter demography in the state. The left-liberal ecosystem wants Hindus to remain oblivious to the existential threat they face. However, the report by the Centre for Policy Studies highlighting the threat of religious imbalance and demographic change serves as a stark reminder of what is being taken too lightly by the governments and the Hindu community particularly—Demography is destiny.
