8th February came as an earthquake for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) shaking their foundations. The Arvind Kejriwal-led political party saw its “fort” slip out of its hands as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged victorious in the 2025 Delhi Assembly Elections. Critics are calling it AAP’s worst electoral defeat since its inception, as the party had become a “synonym” for the ruling government in Delhi among its followers.
With this defeat, the political survival of AAP is now being questioned. More importantly, the impact of the loss in Delhi is expected to go beyond the national capital and have a lasting effect on its hold over Punjab as well. AAP’s national ambition was never considered a real possibility, at least in the near future, but even its critics agreed that it can rule Delhi and Punjab for a long time, but now one of them is gone.
Will Punjab slip away too from AAP?
In 2022, AAP secured victory in Punjab as the party’s Punjab chapter piggybacked on the “Delhi model of governance”. Since coming to power in Delhi, AAP leaders, especially Arvind Kejriwal, had painted a very shiny picture of AAP’s governance—an image that projected good governance, free electricity, and welfare schemes. However, as Delhi voters have now clearly turned against the party, and more importantly, against Kejriwal himself who lost his own seat, it is going to be extremely tricky for AAP to save Punjab in the future.
The same community that gave AAP its political rise in Punjab is also now drifting away. Questions are being raised about AAP’s credibility, its leaders, and its governance model. AAP’s situation in Punjab is already far from stable. Farmers are unhappy with the current government, the state government’s debt is rising due to freebies like free electricity, and above all, there is almost no investment coming from business houses.
With Delhi’s loss, the risk for AAP in Punjab is expected to intensify. There has always been a perception that the Punjab government is being controlled remotely by Kejriwal from Delhi. This perception has hurt Bhagwant Mann’s position as Chief Minister in the state. As Kejriwal’s influence weakens, there is a possibility that he will find it difficult to influence the decision-making process in Punjab. In short, Punjab could soon become another lost battle.
The funding crisis – End of AAP’s national dreams?
AAP has always come under fire for its massive advertising campaigns, which were often disguised as governance promotions. These advertisements were published across the country, even though AAP had no presence in those states, and Delhi Government had no role there. The idea was to establish Kejriwal as a national leader. The money came from the Delhi Government’s advertisement budget, which rose exponentially over the years. Delhi High Court, from time to time, raised questions over ad spending by Kejriwal Government.
Now, as the party has lost its grip on Delhi, AAP’s advertisement funds will dry up. The party claims to have no money anyway. The only way out for AAP would be to publish advertisements via the Punjab Government, but that would put immense pressure on the cash-strapped Mann-led government, which is already facing scrutiny from the Punjab and Delhi High Courts over ad spending.
Who will lead AAP if Kejriwal is jailed?
Another major challenge for AAP is the possibility that Kejriwal may soon go back to jail in the liquor scam. Multiple cases are active against Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Satyendar Jain, and others. Atishi, who is among the few leaders who managed to secure victory in the 2025 Delhi Assembly Elections, was called a “temporary CM” by Kejriwal. Even Delhi LG had objected to it. AAP is currently in chaos, and Kejriwal won’t relinquish control of the party to Atishi, one senior AAP leader who won her seat in Delhi.
Moreover, Atishi, Saurabh Bharadwaj, and others do not have the mass appeal that Kejriwal and Sisodia enjoy. Bhagwant Mann could be a possible face to run AAP, but that would lead to a massive ego clash between him and Kejriwal. Raghav Chadha is anyway busy with his Rajya Sabha commitments. However, Kejriwal’s wife, Sunita Kejriwal, may lead the party in his absence, as she did when he was in Tihar Jail in connection with the liquor scam.
But that is only a theory. In reality, AAP seriously lacks a succession plan if a leadership shift becomes necessary in the future.
The road ahead – A slow collapse?
With no financial backing from Delhi, Punjab slipping out of control, and key leaders entangled in legal troubles, AAP’s future looks bleak. The party’s dream of national expansion is effectively over, and even retaining Punjab beyond 2027 will be a challenge.
