The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) took a severe drubbing in the 2025 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election, losing its seat count from 62 in 2020 to just 22. The BJP emerged victorious and bagged 48 seats. The Congress party failed to win a single seat.
Political pundits and controversial ‘journalists’ soon began claiming that had Congress entered into a political alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party, the latter would have ended close to the majority mark.
They even went on to reprimand the Congress for somehow letting the BJP win. ‘Political pundit’ Sumanth Raman lashed out, “Congress
has done a near-perfect demolition job. Predicted this both on TV and on X days ago.”
Sangam Vihar seat won by BJP by 344 votes. Congress candidate takes 15863 votes there.
— Sumanth Raman (@sumanthraman) February 8, 2025
Rajinder Nagar:BJP wins by 1231 votes. Congress polls 4015 votes there. (Durgesh Pathak seat)
Trilokpuri won by BJP by 392 votes. Cong polled 6147 votes there.
Badli:BJP leading 6589 votes.…
He claimed that AAP would have won 10 extra seats if Congress somehow did not ‘cut votes’, taking the total tally of the Arvind Kejriwal-led-party to 32 and close to the majority mark of 36.
Controversial ‘journalist’ Rajdeep Sardesai made similar allegations, although he suggested AAP would have benefitted in 13 Vidhan Sabha constituencies (instead of 10) without a direct contest with the Congress party.
He brazened out, “As many as 13 constituencies where Cong candidate got more votes than the gap between BJP and AAP.. (Cong finished second in one constituency). Had AAP and Cong fought together, several more seats might have seen a neck and neck fight in Delhi.”
A story within a story in Delhi. Congress drew a blank but seriously damaged AAP. As many as 13 constituencies where Cong candidate got more votes than the gap between BJP and AAP.. (Cong finished second in one constituency). Had AAP and Cong fought together, several more seats… pic.twitter.com/HFTko0B0Ej
— Rajdeep Sardesai (@sardesairajdeep) February 8, 2025
Similar claims were made by another ‘journalist’ turned ‘political pundit’ Preeti Choudhry. She alleged, “What if the Congress had fought alongside the Aam Aadmi Party? It was an open option until at least 2 months ago.”
“Delhi right now seems to suggest that if the Congress and AAP would have gone together, you could have won this election… It is touching 10%,” Preeti Choudhry continued.
Preeti Chaudhary: "Delhi suggests that AAP Cong would've won this election together."
— The Analyzer (News Updates🗞️) (@Indian_Analyzer) February 8, 2025
Rahul Kanwal: "What seens to suggest this?"
PC: "Because Congress are touching 10%"
Rahul Kanwal: "It doesn't work that way. This is basic Electoral Politics."🤣🔥 pic.twitter.com/8TFmJpJCxj
Problems with the suggestion that the AAP-Congress alliance would be a ‘game changer’
For starters, electoral politics is not a zero-sum game. Votes do not simply transfer from one party to another, especially given the fact that AAP had originated as a counter to corruption of the Congress party.
Political pundits are using their ‘hindsight bias’ to suggest miraculous, arithmetic addition of votes along constituencies. They are making sweeping conclusions that AAP would have somehow won the election in the presence of a pre-poll alliance with the Congress.
Interestingly, political strategies are not made in isolation. Had there been a pre-poll alliance in place, the BJP would have strategised differently. A case in point is the election result of the Mehrauli Vidhan Sabha constituency.
Mehrauli seat is a good example to show why "what if Congress and AAP had allied" analysis is stupid if one takes into account only margin of victory of BJP over AAP and compare that to votes polled by Congress.
— Rahul Roushan (@rahulroushan) February 9, 2025
Here BJP won by 1782 votes against AAP while Congress got 9338… pic.twitter.com/566NlK0LMg
BJP’s Gajender Singh Yadav won the seat by 1782 votes. Congress candidate Pushpa Singh had received 9338 votes. One could suggest in hindsight that in the absence of the Congress candidate, AAP’s Mahender Chaudhary would have won the seat.
It is interesting to note that Balyogi Baba Balaknath, who contested the polls independently, got more votes than the Congress candidate. He went about his own way after being denied a ticket by the BJP.
Had the BJP known about the Congress-AAP alliance, the saffron party might have given a ticket to Balyogi Baba Balaknath or persuaded him not to contest independently.
Can Congress be guilted for making AAP lose Delhi?
— Padmaja Joshi (@PadmajaJoshi) February 9, 2025
No. pic.twitter.com/9xfof8XLGX
Another interesting point to note is that Congress and AAP fought in an alliance in Delhi during the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The result was a clean sweep of 7 Parliamentary constituencies by the BJP alone.
According to data points shared by journalist Padmaja Joshi, the vote share of AAP is higher in the 2025 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election than it was during the AAP-Congress coalition in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
“This suggests that a section of the AAP’s voter base is actually averse to voting for the Congress and a mechanical addition of the Congress and AAP vote share in the 2025 elections is not the correct way to estimate the efficacy or lack of it of a possible Congress-AAP alliance,” she pointed out.
No incentive for AAP-Congress alliance
This again highlights the fact that there is never an arithmetic transfer of votes. There is however another larger point that journalist Rahul Kanwal told Preeti Choudhry when she suggested that a pre-poll Congress-AAP alliance would have ensured victory in Delhi.
He had pointed out how there was no incentive for AAP, which had an incumbent government in Delhi, to ally with the Congress party.
For context, AAP won 67 seats in the 2015 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election while Congress won 0 seats. Again, AAP won 62 seats in the 2020 Vidhan Sabha election and Congress won 0 seats.
While AAP was well aware that it was on shaky grounds this time around, it made perfect sense to not ally with a party that could only get 0 seats in 2 previous elections.
It would be mind-boggling if AAP had gone into a seat-sharing model with Congress, despite winning 62 seats last time around. And that too with a party that has nil performance in the past 10 years.
While politically motivated ‘journalists’ and ‘pundits’ alike are trying to eulogise a Congress-AAP alliance in hindsight, the overwhelming evidence suggests that it would have made no difference to BJP’s thumping victory in 2025 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election
