An India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll conducted a month before the high octane Karnataka Assembly predicts a hung Assembly, with no party reaching the magic figure of 112 seats out of 225-member Assembly on its own. Even Congress, which is currently in power in the state, may not emerge as a single largest party with managing to get about 90 to 101 seats.
The opinion poll predicts that the BJP which is hoping to oust the current Siddaramaiah government may end up winning 78 to 86 seats. HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) may be the kingmaker in the upcoming polls as the party and its pre-poll alliance member Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) winning between 34 and 43 seats.
According to the opinion poll, in terms of vote share, Congress is expected to get about 37 percent of votes, while BJP may get 35 percent and the JD(S) and BSP alliance could win about 19 percent vote share.
As compared to the current Assembly, Congress stands to lose seats and the BJP stands to win more seats. However, the improved performance may not ensure a big win for the party. The opinion poll says that while the Congress will see its seat tally come down, there is a silver lining in store for the party as most in Karnataka want the JD(S)-BSP alliance to extend its support to the Grand Old Party. On the other hand, just 39 per cent want the JD(S)+ to tie up with the Congress in case of a hung Assembly while 29 per cent want the party to ally with BJP.
For the poll, 27,919 interviews were conducted across all of Karnataka’s 224 constituencies that will vote in the upcoming Assembly election on May 12 (results will be out May 15). One seat MLA out of 225 constituencies is a Governor’s nominee from the Anglo-Saxon community. About 45 percent of those interviewed, especially the Muslim community, feel that Siddaramaiah led Congress should get a second chance. Employment and lack of job opportunities remains the biggest cause of concern amongst the Kannadigas. Price rise, corruption and lack of access to drinking water are also issues of concern.