West Bengal is all set to cast its vote for 294 assembly seats in eight phases spread between March 27 and April 29. If the numbers are to be believed in the recent opinion polls by different agencies, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress will face a major setback. The WB elections are expected to put a big smile on the faces of BJP supporters in the state. On the other hand, the grand alliance between Congress, ISF and the Left is not expected to grab any major vote share.
India News-Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll
On March 23, India News and Jan Ki Baat released their opinion poll for the upcoming West Bengal elections. The survey was conducted by a team of 300 field researchers and analysts led by psephologist Pradeep Bhandari. The sample size of the survey was over 40,000. One of the biggest points that the opinion poll made was a possible setback for Mamata Banerjee in Nandigram.
As per the survey, BJP will get approx 44.8% vote share while TMC will get 44.10 vote share. Grand Alliance and others will get 7.5% and 3% vote share respectively.
As per the survey, TMC will come down to 134-118 seats from 211 seats in the 2016 assembly elections. On the other hand, BJP, which was at three seats in the last elections, may win anywhere between 150-162 seats in the state. The grand alliance will have to be satisfied with 10-14 seats.
Talking about the polls in West Bengal, Jan Ki Baat founder Pradeep Bhandari told OpIndia, “There is anti TMC sentiment in Bengal because of corruption, political violence and appeasement that I observed with my team in our 294 constituency travel. If voting happens in free and fair manner, BJP will form govt, and Mamata Banerjee may also lose Nandigram”.
ABP-CNX opinion poll
The ABP-CNX opinion polls were released on March 23. According to the survey, TMC and BJP will lock horns in the assembly elections as it will be a tough battle. Their survey showed 42.05% of voters inclined towards TMC while 43.61 voters had preferred BJP. The grand alliance will get close to a 6.74% vote share.
Coming to the seat share, TMC may win anywhere between 136-146 seats, while BJP may grab 130-140 seats. It has to be noted that it is a major jump for BJP from three seats in the previous assembly elections.
The opinion polls make it clear that the two parties that are in the actual race to form government in West Bengal are BJP and TMC. Other parties that have formed the grand alliance stand nowhere in the contest.
ABP-CVoter opinion poll
ABP commissioned another opinion poll with CVoter, a snap poll, and it came up with significantly different results. According to this poll, TMC is set to remain the single largest party in West Bengal, despite BJP making significant gains in the state.
As per the snap poll by CVoter, TMC is set to win 160 seats, down from 211 last year. BJP has been projected to win 112 seats, while the Congress alliance may win 22 seats. The vote shares for TMC, BJP and the grand alliance have been projected as 42.1%, 37.4% and 13.0%.