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China approves construction of world’s largest dam on Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, the main tributary of Brahmaputra River

The world's largest hydropower dam with an estimated cost of 1 trillion yuan (US$137 billion) would be built in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which becomes Siang in India's Arunachal Pradesh. The river becomes the Brahmaputra after it merges with two other rivers in Assam.

In what could be a significant cause of concern for India, China has reportedly approved what would be the world’s largest hydroelectric project on Tibet’s longest river Yarlung Tsangpo. The world’s largest hydropower dam with an estimated cost of 1 trillion yuan (US$137 billion) would be built in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which becomes Siang in India’s Arunachal Pradesh. The river becomes the Brahmaputra River after it merges with two other rivers in Assam.

It has been reported that this proposed hydropower dam would generate three times more energy than the Three Gorges Dam, one of the largest dams in the world. In response, India is also contemplating constructing a 10-gigawatt dam to attenuate the effect on Brahmaputra’s water flows due to the Chinese dam.

Notably, the Yarlung Tsangpo flows across the Tibetan Plateau, forming the world’s deepest canyon and plunging 7,667 metres (25,154 feet) before it reaches India. The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon is longer and deeper than the Grand Canyon on the Colorado River in the United States. The Yarlung Tsangpo is called the Everest of rivers, because it is considered the most difficult river to navigate.

China’s mega dam project is touted as a strategic move to assert control over significant water resources, it would definitely stoke geopolitical tensions with India, in addition to the environmental challenges.

Reports say that the project is likely to have the capacity to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity annually. Interestingly, the Three Gorges Dam worth 254.2 billion yuan ($34.83 billion) which now has the world’s largest installed capacity, was designed to generate 88.2 billion kWh. While reports say that the project will be built in the rainiest parts of Tibet, details about its precise location and the commencement of the project are yet to be revealed.

Chinese govt has been planing to build a dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, but the project has not progressed much so far, mostly because the location where the dam is to be built is very remote and the terrain is not easy to navigate. Moreover, China will need to build a long transmission line to take the power to the mainland, as power demand is not that high in Tibet.

In November 2020, it was reported that China was planning to construct a magnificent “super hydropower dam” in Tibet on a section of the Brahmaputra River near India. Later in March 2021, the National People’s Congress (NPC) approved the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). And now the media reports say that the Power Construction Corporation of China (PowerChina), a Chinese state-owned business (SOE), and the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) government to construct this 50-meter-high hydroelectric dam in Tibet at Metog and/or Daduqia at the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra.

Significance of the Brahmaputra River for India and China

Since the Brahmaputra river crosses over the Sino-Indian border it is crucial for both of the world’s most densely populated countries, India and China. The importance of Brahmaputra for India can be understood from the fact that it provides 30% freshwater supply and 40% of India’s total hydroelectric power. Even though the Brahmaputra River has a very meagre impact on China’s total freshwater supply, it is reported to be significant to Tibet’s agricultural and energy sector. With increasing population and demand and limited water resources, both India and China would want to harness the power of the Brahmaputra River. Notably, China only accounts for 22-30% of the overall basin discharge, despite covering more than 50% of the basin’s geographical area, due to Tibet’s cold desert climate and scant annual rainfall.

China’s endeavour to use hydropower dams as strategic weapon, Challenges for India and its countermeasures

China’s proposed “Mother of all Dams” might hinder the downstream flow of the Brahmaputra, reducing water supply for agricultural, drinking, and industrial use in northeastern India. Given that the Brahmaputra provides a significant share of India’s freshwater supplies, a disruption in its flow might exacerbate India’s water stress, particularly in regions such as Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

In addition, the Chinese dam may trap sediment, which is essential for the fertile delta regions of India and Bangladesh. Reports say this may lead to changes in riverbed levels, increased erosion, and damage to agricultural areas downstream.

Another major concern is that China could release large amounts of water unannounced causing flash floods in India. This control over water release might be especially detrimental during the monsoon season, or in the event of an emergency or planned action by China.

While the dam with such massive capacity would generate significant hydropower for China, it would become paramount for India to accelerate its own dam projects in Arunachal Pradesh to counterbalance. This, however, would trigger geopolitical tensions given China’s baseless claim over Arunachal Pradesh.

China’s dominance over the headwaters of key Asian rivers offers it a substantial edge in transboundary water politics. By building dams, China not only secures energy but also achieves a strategic position in “water wars” or “hydro-hegemony”. Having the capacity to influence water flow could be a tool in China’s strategic arsenal and this control can be used to exert influence or pressure on downstream countries, particularly during events of geopolitical conflict or negotiations over border disputes etc.

Besides, China’s lack of transparency on hydrological data and dam projects has been a cause of concern for India. This secrecy fuels suspicion and speculation about China’s intentions, especially given previous instances in which China withheld crucial flood data from India even as an MoU was signed between India and China in 2013 to share hydrological data.

It must be recalled that in 2017, when Indo-China border tensions were at a peak following the Doklam standoff, China did not provide hydrological data to India citing “upgradation and renovation of the Data Collection Centre in Tibet”, however, it provided the hydrological data to Bangladesh.

Notably, the Indian government has fast-tracked the development of an 11,000 MW hydropower project in the Upper Subansiri region, which would assist in improving water management and electricity production. It is also a response to China’s upstream activities, thereby letting India gain better control of its water resources while alleviating the adverse impacts that may result from China’s dam.

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