Tuesday, April 13, 2021
Home Opinions Why West Bengal is in a hostage situation with no good choices

Why West Bengal is in a hostage situation with no good choices

There is a method to his madness in Mamata's Bengal

Another day, another murder of a BJP worker in Bengal.

The violence from Bengal has become so routine and so mind-numbing that people don’t seem to react any more. The TMC’s reign of terror continues from one day to the next.

The question is where is the TMC going with this? Are they crazy? To a large extent, this is true. But if you think just a bit more, you realize that there is definitely a method behind the madness.

First of all, let’s say the obvious. Mamata Banerjee knows that it’s all over for her in Bengal in 2021. I don’t just mean to say she will lose. I mean it’s over for her party. This is going to be no ordinary defeat. It will be a shattering defeat that will leave the TMC struggling to win even 50-60 seats out of 294.

The numbers tell the story and they don’t lie. The BJP’s voteshare in Bengal is 40%, which is a mere 3% behind the TMC. If you account for the fact that the BJP did not win any seats in the region around Kolkata in the last phase, it suggests that their margins in Purulia, Medinipur, etc (regions close to Jharkhand) and in North Bengal would have been huge.

Now let’s do the simple math. A 40% vote share overall. The Hindu population of Bengal is around 70%. That works out to a mind boggling conclusion : over 57% of Bengali Hindus have voted for BJP. This is Hindu consolidation on a scale perhaps unprecedented in the history of the state. With caste playing almost no role in Bengal, there are no checks to slow down this wave. By 2021, this number could rise above 80%.

It’s going to happen.

There is really nothing Mamata can do to stop this. In fact, it is really bad news for her that she has two full years before the Assembly Election. The farther away the election, the worse for her. Because the BJP is gaining voters with every single day.

This is generally the worst phase for an incumbent government to be in. Sort of like the Congress around mid-2013. If the election was in Sept 2013 say, the Congress perhaps would have not lost so badly. But it dragged on and on…..the public anger kept snowballing with every passing day. It’s a period when anti-incumbency becomes so pervasive that the government passes into a kind of unreal twilight zone. It seems they can’t get anything right. The people pull them up for literally everything they do. In fact, the government becomes a magnet for people looking to vent out all the frustrations in their lives.

By the time the election finally arrives, the incumbent is practically begging to be put out of their misery. The government of West Bengal is currently in that phase.

Mamata Banerjee knows this. She is too clever a politician not to get it. On top of that, she has made a devastating tactical error. Getting out of her car and getting three people arrested for saying Jai Shri Ram in a moment of rage is something she will regret.

Now every kid in West Bengal is out there taunting her with Jai Shri Ram slogans. Kids are making TikTok skits that show her getting angry at Jai Shri Ram slogans. That’s when you know it has gone deep into the culture. And there’s no logical comeback from the TMC for this. They are in an indefensible position.  You simply can’t find fault with people for saying Jai Shri Ram. Not possible. Especially not when 57% of Hindus are already against you.

That’s the madness. Where is the method?

There is only *one* thing Mamata Banerjee can do to turn Bengal around. The TMC has to somehow portray itself as a victim. But how?

I would say this is what is really behind the wave of violence in Bengal that has not abated even after May 23. The TMC is throwing the gauntlet before Modi and Shah, taunting them, daring them.

They are literally *trying* to get their government dismissed.

So many BJP supporters online say that Bengal should be put under President’s rule. But I have to ask: how exactly does it help in saving lives?

You can’t have President’s rule for more than 6 months. After that it can be extended for another 6 months max. During this period, you can either dissolve the Assembly or keep it in suspended animation. If it is kept in suspended animation, Mamata Banerjee just gets back all her power after a year’s break. Otherwise, there are fresh elections, Mamata Banerjee gets to play victim and perhaps has a realistic chance of winning again and ruling for five years. So does it really help save anybody?

The state is now entering a horrifying situation. There is no way TMC can win under “normal” circumstances. The incentive for the TMC is to keep making the situation worse, trying to get President’s Rule. Or at very least, push BJP workers to the point where they might go into open revolt, demanding that the powerful Central government intervene to save their lives.

And this means, there is going to be more and more violence in Bengal.

This is like IC-814 and the Kandahar hijack. Do you save the lives of the people on the hijacked plane in this instant? But what of the fact that Masood Azhar will ultimately kill more people if he is released?

This is a hostage situation. The TMC is holding BJP workers in Bengal hostage. And there are no good choices.

  Support Us  

Whether NDTV or 'The Wire', they never have to worry about funds. In name of saving democracy, they get money from various sources. We need your support to fight them. Please contribute whatever you can afford

Abhishek Banerjeehttps://dynastycrooks.wordpress.com/
Abhishek Banerjee is a math lover who may or may not be an Associate Professor at IISc Bangalore. He is the author of Operation Johar - A Love Story, a novel on the pain of left wing terror in Jharkhand, available on Amazon here.  

Related Articles

Trending now

Constant ‘beheading’ threats by Islamists: Hindus come out in large numbers to support Yati Narsinghanand Saraswati, demand security for him

Enraged by the Muslim politicians and religious groups openly issuing death threats, Hindus come together to support Yati Narsinghanand Saraswati.

Here’s why lockdown is no longer an option and imposing another at this point makes no sense at all

Not imposing a lockdown may be a bad choice but imposing it to combat Covid-19 will prove to be infinitely worse.

Japan to release treated water from Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean: USA, IAEA support, China condemns

Japan has long delayed the decision to dispose of the wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant over criticisms and safety concerns.

The direct fall-out of not implementing farm laws: Punjab Farmers say Arhtiyas asking for signed blank cheques for helping in crop procurement

Farmers across Punjab are being told by their arhtiyas to furnish "signed blank cheques" if they want to get their produce auctioned in the mandis

What happened in Chhabra after Hindu man was stabbed by Muslim men: Call for peace, attack on a Hindu the next day and more

On April 12, the administration extended curfew for one more day at Chhabra, Baran district in Rajasthan after the communal riot

Uttar Pradesh: Gyanvapi mosque management committee seeks a stay on ASI survey, Sunni board supports them

The Gyanvapi mosque management committee had filed an urgent petition in Allahabad High Court seeking a stay on ASI survey of Gyanvapi mosque complex.

Recently Popular

Pfizer wanted Brazil, Argentina to put military bases, Federal reserve as collateral: Why India kept Pfizer away and how the usual suspects are wrong

Pfizer has been accused of countries in Latin America of pledging their sovereign assets, military bases and financial reserves to protect itself from any adverse fallout of the vaccine

After explosive Clubhouse confessions, Prashant Kishor starts building ground to blame only Mamata Banerjee if Bengal is lost: Here’s how

While trying to fire-fight fall-out from Clubhouse conversation, Prashant Kishor has set narrative to blame Mamata Banerjee and TMC for West Bengal loss

Attempts to draw false equivalence between the Kumbh Mela and Tablighi Jamaat congregation do not make sense: Here’s why

Attempts are being made to draw false equivalences between the Kumbh Mela and the Tablighi Jamaat congregation last year.

India has to become a ‘Hindu Rashtra’, or it will be turned into an Islamic nation by 2030: Kerala MLA

"Can we let this nation (go) to any particular community? This needs to be discussed. Somebody has to speak up," PC George emphasised.

Shops burnt, stones pelted on police in Baran, Rajasthan after 3 Muslim men stabbed one Kamal Singh: What we know so far

Shops burnt, police personnel injured, stone pelting, fire department vehicles attacked in Chhabra, Rajasthan.

OpIndia Exclusive: Tata Communications suffers data leak, hackers claim to have sold access to company’s servers, over 50GB data still up for sale

As per two posts by hackers on a hackers' forum, they have gained access to Tata Communications servers and sold them.
- Advertisement -

 

Connect with us

254,077FansLike
528,799FollowersFollow
24,200SubscribersSubscribe