The 2024 Lok Sabha election results came as a shocker for the country. BJP, which was seen crossing 300 in most exit polls, could win only 240 seats. After this, it formed the government with the support of other NDA parties including TDP and JDU. But the most shocking result in this Lok Sabha election was that of the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat.
It came as a surprise leaving the people with the question of why did BJP got this setback even after the centuries-old dream of Hindus for the Ram Mandir was fulfilled. Many types of analysis were presented about this defeat. This seat, now commonly known as Ayodhya, was lost by BJP to Samajwadi Party candidate Awadhesh Prasad. No one knew Awadhesh Prasad in Delhi politics before this. However, his victory increased Awadhesh Prasad’s stature by manifolds, although Prasad is not a new leader.
Before becoming an MP, he was an MLA from Milkipur reserved assembly seat of Ayodhya district. When Avdhesh Prasad reached the Parliament, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav presented him like a trophy. BJP has now got a chance to settle the score of this defeat.
Milkipur by-election delayed due to legal troubles
A by-election will be held in February 2025 on the Milkipur assembly seat vacated by Awadhesh Prasad’s victory. Till now this by-election was pending due to a legal tangle as the BJP candidate had filed a petition against Awadhesh Prasad’s victory in the assembly on this seat. However, he has withdrawn his plea. After this, the by-election has now been announced.
In the by-elections held in Uttar Pradesh along with the Haryana and Jharkhand assembly elections, the BJP alliance had recently won 7 out of 9 seats. After this, the BJP is in high spirits and is claiming to win Milkipur as well.
The voting for the high-profile Milkipur by-election will be held on 5th February 2025, and the results will be declared on 8th February. Samajwadi Party had announced to give ticket to Awadhesh Prasad’s son Ajit Prasad on this seat much before the election dates. BJP has not yet given its candidate on this seat, however, an announcement is expected after Makar Sankranti.
BJP to announce its candidate for Milkipur soon
Many people including Baba Gorakhnath, Ramu Priyadarshi, and Chandrabhan Paswan are in the line from the BJP side. Baba Gorakhnath was an MLA from here in 2017 and in 2022 he lost to Awadhesh Prasad. His claim for the ticket is also strong. Other than Baba Gorakhnath, another former BJP MLA and a big face of the organisation, Ramu Priyadarshi, is also in the race.
Apart from these two, Chandrabhan Paswan, Chandrakesh Paswan and many others are also in the queue. Once the BJP announces its candidate, it will become clear as to which way the by-election is heading. Milkipur is a Dalit-dominated area and is also a reserved seat. In such a situation, the BJP also wants to decide on the candidate only after taking stock of the dynamics on the ground.
In this regard, local journalist Nitesh Singh says, “Baba Gorakhnath’s base is already built but there is some opposition to him from within. However, his claim cannot be denied. Apart from this, Ramu Priyadarshi is meeting all the benchmarks. It is very difficult to say right now who the party will choose.”
Dalits dominant but upper castes have deciding votes
There are about 1.2 lakh Dalit voters in the Milkipur assembly constituency. Out of these, the maximum number of votes are of people from the Pasi community to which Awadhesh Prasad belongs. Apart from Dalit voters, Brahmin, Thakur and other upper-caste voters are also present here in large numbers. Their total votes are also about 1 lakh. Muslim votes here are 30,000.
Considering the caste and religion dynamics, the Samajwadi Party is trying to win here by combining Muslim and Dalit votes. Earlier, Awadhesh Prasad has also won under this formula. Some upper castes have also been supporting him. But this time the matter is different as the local people say that unlike Awadhesh Prasad his son Ajit Prasad lacks the hold on the ground.
Ajit Prasad has even lost the district panchayat elections. Journalist Nitesh Singh says, “Ajit Prasad does not have the humility that Awadhesh Prasad had. He is busy campaigning but the internal fight in SP can harm him. However, he has the direct blessings of Akhilesh Yadav.”
Since all the candidates are from the Dalit community, who the upper castes support can become the X factor in the elections. Election analysts say that in 2017 Baba Gorakhnath had the support of the upper castes but in 2022 this support went to Awadhesh Prasad. In such a situation, their vote can be decisive.
Meanwhile, analysts are of the view that the upper caste voters will make up their minds about supporting the BJP only after the party announces its candidate. It is said that the “Savarna” Hindus want the BJP to put forth a different face after which they may extend full support to the party in the coming by-election.
BJP won Milkipur twice
Milkipur is such an assembly seat on which BJP, BSP, SP and Communist Party have all won in the last three decades. However, in the last 10 assembly elections and by-elections, Samajwadi Party has won this seat 6 times. BJP won the election here in 2017, 1991 while BSP won in 2007. However, now the direct fight here is between BJP and SP. In the 2017 assembly elections, Baba Gorakhnath defeated Awadhesh Prasad by a margin of 28000 votes. In the 2022 assembly elections, he lost by about 13000 votes. This time he is again in the fray to get a ticket.
From ministers to party organisation, BJP exerting all its strength to avenge “Ayodhya haar gaye”
BJP wants to take revenge for its defeat in the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat by winning this seat. This revenge becomes important because it is up against the son of the same Avdhesh Prasad who defeated the BJP candidate. BJP does not want to leave any stone unturned for this election and has deployed 6 ministers here.
In addition, people from the state president to the regional president and other organisation members are also involved. They are setting the atmosphere by meeting the Pradhan of every village, VDC, Nagar Panchayat representative and influential people. Even the problems of the people are being resolved there and then.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is also directly involved in the BJP’s preparations for the high-profile election. He has also held a meeting with the BJP officials here. CM Ypgi has also visited here in the last few months. After the announcement of the candidate, there are speculations that a rally of Chief Minister Yogi will also be held here.
BJP continuously strengthening its organisation to garner votes from every village in the elections. Its workers are going to the villages to win over voters’ hearts. As soon as the candidate is declared, a public relations campaign will also be started rapidly. With its meticulous efforts and strategies, the BJP wants to avenge its defeat in Ayodhya by winning Milkipur.