The situation around the Russia-Ukraine war appears to be shifting significantly, with a new chapter of global diplomacy unfolding on 18th February 2025 as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met his American counterpart Marco Rubio in Saudi Arabia and US President Donald Trump publicly criticising Zelenskyy for ‘failing’.
As the US-Russia efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensify, the question arises whether these endeavours lay the groundwork for a dawn of peace for the two warring sides or turn out to be the prelude of further geopolitical chess moves. It is thus, crucial to understand what exactly is happening.
Rubio-Lavrov meeting: Inching closer to the negotiation table?
In a rare but pivotal high-level meeting since the Russia-Ukraine war started in 2022, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met the Russian Foreign Minister in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh. It is interesting to note that even though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was also in Saudi Arabia, he was not a part of this meeting.
The US State Department spokesperson’s office stated in a statement, “Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as a follow-up to President Donald Trump’s conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week.
“The Secretary reaffirmed President Trump’s commitment to finding an end to the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, they discussed the opportunity to potentially work together on a number of other bilateral issues,” the spokesperson added.
This is historic !!
— حسن سجواني 🇦🇪 Hassan Sajwani (@HSajwanization) February 18, 2025
I don’t recall seeing such high level sit down between US 🇺🇸 and Russia 🇷🇺
Ukraine war MUST end
Well done Team President Trump and President Putin
Congrats to our brothers in KSA 🇸🇦 pic.twitter.com/6HXBKw0wob
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the two sides agreed on pursuing three goals: to restore staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow, to create a high-level team to support Ukraine peace talks, and to explore closer relations and economic cooperation.
“Should this conflict come to an acceptable end, the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians geopolitically on issues of common interest and frankly, economically on issues that hopefully will be good for the world and also improve our relations in the long term,” Rubio said.
Appreciating the new Trump administration’s approach towards the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “I have reason to believe that the American side has started to better understand our position, which we have once again outlined in detail, using specific examples, based on President Putin’s repeated speeches.”
Interestingly, Russia has been quite positive about engaging in talks with the Trump administration to resolve its conflict with Ukraine. Ahead of the meeting in Riyadh, Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said “From now on, we will talk about peace, not war.”
Taking a small but impactful step towards cooperation and trust-building, Russia approved a unilateral release of an American caught in possession of a certain amount of cannabis at Moscow Airport. On the face of it, this does not seem to be a big step, during the Biden administration, the Kremlin arrested and subjected American nationals to longer prison sentences for similar charges. If not for Russia’s softened stance, the American national released would have possibly served a 7-year jail sentence.
Russia’s decision to release the arrested American national was welcomed by the United States. This development is also important considering the fact that Russia and the US have indulged in prisoner-swap diplomacy which former US President Joe Biden called “hostage diplomacy”.
Trump-Putin telephonic conversation
Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump spoke for nearly an hour over the telephone. The two leaders agreed upon ending the war in Ukraine through a peaceful solution. After this call, President Trump said that his Russian counterpart wanted the war to end. Trump added that the two leaders discussed “getting a ceasefire in the not-too-distant future.”
“He wants it to end. He doesn’t want to end it and then go back to fighting six months later. I think we’re on the way to getting peace. I think President Putin wants peace, President Zelensky wants peace and I want peace. I just want to see people stop getting killed,” Trump told the media.
Interestingly, Trump also had a conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky who also expressed his willingness the end the war. Informing about his conversation with President Trump, Zelensky wrote on X, “I had a meaningful conversation with @POTUS. We… talked about opportunities to achieve peace, discussed our readiness to work together …and Ukraine’s technological capabilities… including drones and other advanced industries.”
Russia-Ukraine war to end at the expense of Ukraine’s NATO membership dream?
Apparently, the Trump administration is pushing for a swift end to the war, possibly at the cost of some of Ukraine’s long-term strategic goals, most importantly, NATO membership.
Recently, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Ukraine may have to relinquish its claim over its territories seized by Russia in addition to its ambition of joining the NATO military alliance.
Not to forget, Ukraine’s desperate attempts at joining NATO were one of the major reasons behind the escalation of tensions with Russia. This remains a bone contention with Russia emphasising that it cannot allow Ukraine to join NATO since this poses a direct threat to Russia’s sovereignty.
On 18th February, while in Riyadh, the Russian Foreign Minister demanded that NATO scrap its 2008 promise or the “Bucharest Declaration” of giving Ukraine membership to the US-led military alliance one day.
“We explained to our colleagues today what President (Vladimir) Putin has repeatedly stressed: that the expansion of NATO, the absorption of Ukraine by the North Atlantic alliance, is a direct threat to the interests of the Russian Federation, a direct threat to our sovereignty,” Lavrov said.
The Russian leader also rejected the idea of NATO forces or British forces as proposed by Keir Starmer, acting as peacekeepers under any kind of ceasefire deal.
“We explained today that the appearance of armed forces from the same NATO countries, but under a false flag, under the flag of the European Union or under national flags, does not change anything in this regard. Of course, this is unacceptable to us,” Lavrov asserted.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova asserted that now only keeping Ukraine from joining NATO is not enough and NATO must disavow its 2008 promise wherein NATO promised to admit Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance.
“The alliance must disavow the Bucharest promises of 2008,” Zakharova said.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that refusing to accept Ukraine into NATO now is not enough and that the Kremlin must be guaranteed that Kyiv will never become part of the US-led military alliance. WATCH👇 https://t.co/jEEZbcghd4 pic.twitter.com/xF9qxgF5lW
— Hindustan Times (@htTweets) February 18, 2025
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump acknowledged that the USA’s previous support to Ukraine’s ambitions of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) was a key cause behind Russia waging a war on Ukraine.
President Trump slammed the previous Biden administration for supporting Kyiv’s NATO dream. He also noted that there was no way Russia could have allowed Ukraine to join NATO.
Trump’s NATO remarks received praise from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who said, “He is the first, and so far, in my opinion, the only Western leader who has publicly and loudly said that one of the root causes of the Ukrainian situation was the impudent line of the previous administration to draw Ukraine into NATO.”
Ukraine’s stand
Unsurprisingly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed strong reservations about any peace deal that does not involve Kyiv directly. Zelensky was not invited to the Saudi talks enraging Kyiv over being side-lined from discussions about its own future. President Zelensky has been stressing that any peace agreement must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also continues to push for Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO or at least concrete security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression against the east European country.
“Ukraine will never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia [without Ukraine’s involvement]. We have this place at the table at the very beginning, and we are the first who are at this table because the war is in Ukraine. We are thankful for all the support, unity in the U.S. around Ukraine support – even bipartisan support – we are thankful for all of this, but there is no leader in the world that can make a deal with Putin without us, about us,” Zelensky said ahead of US-Russia talks in Riyadh.
Trump slams Zelensky for failing to negotiate peace with Russia, calls for elections in Ukraine before the war-hit country gets a seat at the table
US President Donald Trump has trained his guns against his Ukrainian counterpart. Trump not only accused Zelensky of failing to negotiate peace with Russia but also blamed him for starting the war.
“This could have been settled very easily. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal. I could have made a deal for Ukraine. That would have given them almost all of the land, everything, almost all of the land – and no people would have killed, and no city would have been demolished,” President Trump said.
Donald Trump has taken aim at Ukraine, suggesting the country itself is to blame for starting the ongoing war with Russia, in what many are calling a bizarre feat of historical revisionism. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. pic.twitter.com/6xT6xuuALx
— DW News (@dwnews) February 19, 2025
Addressing Ukraine’s dismay over not being invited to US-Russia talks over ending the war in Ukraine, President Trump strongly asserted that Ukraine had three years to make a peace deal with the Kremlin, however, Zelensky failed to achieve peace for his country.
“But today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” Trump said.
Donald Trump also mocked Zelenskyy for his supposed low approval ratings and called on the Ukrainian leader to face elections. “I mean, I hate to say it, but he’s down at a four per cent approval rating. We have a situation where we haven’t had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law, essentially martial law in Ukraine,” Trump said.
Doubling down his attack on Zelenskyy, Trump on 19th February called the Ukrainian President a “dictator without elections”. He also accused President Zelensky of exploiting the United States and calling his leadership of war-torn Ukraine “terrible.”
A day after seemingly blaming Zelenskyy for igniting the conflict with Russia, Trump once again questioned U.S. support for Ukraine. In response to Trump’s earlier remarks, Zelenskyy stated that the former president “lives in a disinformation space.”
On Wednesday, Trump took to Truth Social to criticize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, describing him as a “modestly successful comedian” who convinced the U.S. to spend $350 billion on a war that, according to Trump, was unwinnable and unnecessary. He claimed that without U.S. support—and Trump—Zelenskyy would be unable to negotiate a resolution.
“That’s [holding elections in Ukraine] not a Russian thing. That’s something coming from me and coming from many other countries also. He [Zelenskyy] refuses to hold elections, has low approval ratings in Ukraine, and his only real skill was manipulating Biden,” Trump wrote. “A dictator without elections—Zelenskyy better act fast, or he won’t have a country left.”
It, however, is pertinent to note that in 2015, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law which barred elections in the country during wartime. Since the war started in 2022, Ukraine has been under martial law, which bars elections during wartime. Zelenskyy though has been accused of occupying office despite his tenure ending in May 2024, since the war has not ended he continues to lead Ukraine. The Ukrainian President has claimed that once the war ends, he will hold elections in the country.
It has been three years since the war erupted between Russia and Ukraine, millions of people have lost their lives, and the war is at a standoff, however, the Ukrainian President apparently doesn’t want the war to end or to end only at his whims.
Zelenskyy’s nonchalance in negotiating a peace deal with Putin can be understood from the fact that he has remained adamant about claiming Crimea and Donbas, though he admitted Ukraine “lacks strength” to those territories back militarily. He also continues to push for NATO membership for Ukraine or its entry into the European Union, which is unacceptable to Russia. These divergent goals further exacerbate the situation.
As Ukraine under Zelenskyy’s leadership got the political, diplomatic and military backing of the US, NATO and EU, the Ukrainian president was emboldened to continue fighting Russia and hold out for better negotiation terms. This, however, complicated the situation and the only person to apparently benefit from this was Zelenskyy who not only was turned into a ‘heroic’ wartime leader but also did not have to face elections.
European countries want to be part of future negotiations on Ukraine’s fate, US opposes Europe’s involvement
Recently, Europe particularly countries like France, Germany and the UK have expressed the supposed need for their participation in any peace talks. These countries stress that a peace deal must be “fair” and involve security guarantees for Ukraine.
In a joint statement, seven European countries and the European Commission said, “Our shared objectives should be to put Ukraine in a position of strength. Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations. Ukraine should be provided with strong security guarantees. A just and lasting peace in Ukraine is a necessary condition for a strong transatlantic security.”
The United States, however, is not very keen about involving Europe in brokering the Ukraine-Russia peace deal as Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg said that Europe won’t have a seat at the table for Ukraine peace talks but their interests will not be overlooked.
“I’m (from) a school of realism. I think that’s not gonna happen,” Kellogg said on a question about Europe’s prospects of being at the negotiation table.
Upcoming Putin-Trump meeting and the way forward
After shaking things up in just a week, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are expected to hold a meeting soon. While Trump said that he might meet Putin later this month, the Kremlin said that the meeting may or may not happen this month and could take a little longer to prepare. The two leaders have not had a face-to-face interaction since 2021.
Sooner or later, the two leaders will meet to discuss the Ukraine issue. The prospect of Putin and Trump holding a meeting has signalled a seismic shift in US-Russia relations alongside upending ‘traditional’ alliances. President Trump has a penchant for personal diplomacy and he would possibly like to leverage his relationship with his President Putin to broker a peace deal. Putin would also want to retain Ukraine’s lost territories and persuade the US to coerce Ukraine into conceding certain territories to Russia.
This meeting might prove to be lucrative for President Trump as he would be bypassing Europe’s demands. Besides, Kremlin would try to make the US lift some sanctions which obviously would bring Russia in an even stronger position. President Trump is already quite displeased over the previous US government pumping billions of dollars into Ukraine to fight Russia, the United States might significantly cut support to Ukraine if not completely stop funding to Russia’s bête noire.
This would result in Ukraine’s increased dependence on European countries. While Europe has financially assisted Ukraine against Russia, the US has been the major financial aid provider to Ukraine. If the US curbs or stops financial assistance to Ukraine, Europe may not be able to compensate for the lost US funds due to its own economic constraints. Besides financial aid, the USA has also been a major supplier of advanced weaponry, intelligence etc to Ukraine. However, with changed US-Ukraine dynamics, the US may halt military aid to Ukraine and worsen things for the country. Interestingly, while Russia has managed to remain economically sound despite a myriad of sanctions by the West, Europe’s sanctions on Russia will not be as effective if the US and Russia reach an agreement or US halts aid to Ukraine. With the US not on their side, it might become difficult for European countries to pressure Russia economically or diplomatically.
Beyond the politics, blame games, mudslinging and violence, the Russia-Ukraine conflict demands a multifaceted approach, with Russia, Ukraine and the US (as mediator) indulging in respectful dialogue with realistic expectations. While Ukraine may have to let go of its NATO dream, Russia would be required to commit withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine and respect the latter’s sovereignty. An end to this bloodied conflict should be prioritised over territorial or political gains alongside ensuring that a peace deal is not only about the cessation of hostilities but also about laying the groundwork for lasting stability in Eastern Europe.
While the Trump-Putin meeting can open a new chapter in the US-Russia ties, time alone will tell if the end to the Ukraine-Russia war was finally within sight, or merely a mirage in the desert of diplomacy.
