Pakistan faces a dismal kharif (summer crop) sowing season due to a significant decline in live storage at its two main dams, Tarbela on the Indus and Mangla on the Jhelum. Moreover, India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in the wake of the recent Pahalgam terror assault and regulate the flow of the Chenab River have only exacerbated the issue.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed alarm during an international conference on glacier preservation last week in Dushanbe in Tajikistan that the impending shortfall would get more dire in the coming weeks, especially during the early part of the kharif sowing season. Prime Minister Sharif also ranted about India suspended the water treaty.
The recent estimates from Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) outlined that the nation is already experiencing a 21% overall water flow shortage and roughly 50% live storage shortage in the two major dams that are essential for producing hydropower and supplying water for irrigation in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh.
According to the IRSA’s review of water availability for summer sowing operations from May to September, the agency “noted with concern” that the “sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortage in early kharif season.”
The agency instructed dam officials and irrigation supply monitoring organizations to utilize water from reservoirs sparingly, “keeping in view the crisis created by Indian short supplies in Chenab river,” as it announced a 21% overall scarcity. Pakistan’s farming activities will be increasingly dependent on how India controls the flow through its two reservoirs, Baglihar and Salal, on the Chenab in Jammu and Kashmir, even if the situation might improve with monsoon rainfall in the catchment area.
Thus far, India has simply removed sediments from these reservoirs to cleanse them and make more water storage available. Furthermore, it put the 1960 agreement on hold and ceased exchanging water flow statistics with Pakistan after the Pahalgam tragedy. According to publicly available data on the live storage of Pakistan’s key reservoirs, Tarbela dam’s live storage is just over 50% (6 MFA) of its total capacity of 11.6 MFA, while Mangla dam is currently left with less than 50% of its fill level (2.7 MAF out of 5.9 MAF).
The officials mentioned that it would be challenging for the neighboring nation to even control floods during the peak flow season once the monsoon strikes the catchment areas of the Indus river system, as a significant portion of it falls within India, since India is not required to share water flow data with Pakistan after suspending the IWT.
Punjab and Sindh, two Pakistani provinces, rely entirely on irrigation canals connected to the Indus river system, which receives nearly all of its water from the western rivers, the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. Under the IWT, India has complete rights over the waters of the eastern rivers (the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas), yet, Pakistan benefits from India’s lack of infrastructure. Pakistan gains by default since India is allowed to build water storage facilities on western rivers up to 3.6 MAF but has not been able to fully utilize the same.
India hits back at Pakistan
“India’s unilateral and illegal decision to hold in abeyance the Indus Waters Treaty, which governs the sharing of the Indus Basin’s water, is deeply regrettable,” Shehbaz Sharif stated on 30th May in Dushanbe. However, India told Pakistan to stop holding it responsible for the Indus Water Treaty violation.
“We are appalled at the attempt by Pakistan to misuse the forum and to bring in unwarranted references to issues which do not fall within the purview of the forum. We strongly condemned such an attempt,” Minister of State for Environment Kirti Vardhan Singh conveyed.
He stated that it is an indisputable reality that since the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty, fundamental circumstances have changed, necessitating a reevaluation of the treaty’s regulations. According to Kirti Vardhan Singh, these developments include the continuous threat of cross-border terrorism, demographic shifts, climate change and technology advancements. He mentioned that it is crucial to honor the treaty in good faith because its preamble declares that it was signed in the spirit of friendship and goodwill.
“However, the unrelenting cross border terrorism from Pakistan interferes with an ability to exploit the treaty as per its provisions. Pakistan, which itself is in violation of the treaty, should desist from putting the blame of the breach of the treaty on India,” the minister highlighted.
India declared the suspension of the treaty as part of a number of retaliatory steps against Pakistan after the terrorist attack in the Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam on 22nd April.
