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Ray of hope: Post lockdown, the active coronavirus cases in India doubling every 10 days instead of 5 days showing almost a 40 per cent decline

The economist today, by the means of two graphical representation, depicts that the rate of growth of active coronavirus cases is now 7.1%.

To battle the coronavirus scourge, the government of India has taken a tough decision of bringing the country to a standstill. Apart from a handful, people in every nook and cranny are cooperating with the authorities to emerge from the crisis, together. Harsh is might sound, but the Tablighi Jamaat congregation has put the entire country at risk and pushed back India’s effort in fighting the pandemic. The initial 21-day lockdown the country was put under had to be extended by another 19 days, and all because of the callousness displayed by the Jamaati’s.

Nevertheless, the good part is that this astuteness seems to be paying off. Economist Shamika Ravi, who is currently the Director of Research at Brookings India and former member, PM’s Economic Advisory Council, in a Tweet today, shared two graphical representation of statistical data showing a welcome turn in the Coronavirus growth rate in India.

On April 4, through a series of Tweets, Ravi had explained how despite Tablighi Jamaat cases, India had managed to flatten the coronavirus curve. As of April 4, the active coronavirus cases in India was doubling every 5 days. According to the statistics shared by the economist today, the coronavirus cases in India is now doubling in every 10 days, raising hopes that if this trend continues, it will soon bring some relief for India.

The economist today, by the means of two graphical representation, depicts that the rate of growth of active cases is now 7.1%.

The graph below has been shared by the economist today, which shows confirmed cases in India as on April 17. It shows that though the total number of confirmed cases are increasing the rate of growth of active cases is now 7.1%. So these are doubling every 10 days, which the economist has called the lockdown effect.

To understand the better two graphs have been shared below. The first graph depicts that India has managed to reach a level where the confirmed cases are doubling every 10 days. Whereas the second graph is the old graph Ravi had shared on April 4, which displays how the cases then were doubling every 5 days

Graph as of April 17, depicting confirmed cases doubling every 10 days:

Graph as of April 4, depicting confirmed cases doubling every 5 days:

In the second graph shared by Ravi today, she displays the percentage growth rate in the last 5 days which she says stands at 7.1 per cent.

If we are to believe these statistics, rate of growth of active coronavirus cases in India is on a gradual decline, leading us to hope that India is gradually ebbing the sudden surge in the Coronavirus cases, which was largely a Tablighi Jamaat super spreader effect.

Facts released by the Health Ministry:

In fact, the Union health ministry has also said today that there had been a 40 per cent decline in the growth rate of coronavirus cases since April 1 in comparison to the fortnight earlier. The average growth rate of corona cases in India between March 15 and March 31 was 2 per cent, which has now come down to 1.2 per cent, the health ministry said.

“It is a product of how we are managing the situation at the ground level. This decline has happened after we have increased the collection of samples, including of those affected by acute respiratory infections,” said Lav Aggarwal, joint secretary at the ministry.

India has conducted 319,400 tests so far, of which 28,340 were conducted on Thursday. The country is likely to develop the capacity to manufacture one million test kits a month, and one million rapid detection kits, by next month, Aggarwal said.

The doubling rate of cases in the country has dropped to 6.2 days over the past week, as against three days before the lockdown was imposed, he said.

In 19 states and Union Territories, the doubling rate has been lower than the national average, including in Delhi, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Telangana, and Haryana.

The health ministry also reported that 13 per cent of patients had recovered so far. The outcome ratio, Aggarwal said, for cases recovered versus deaths in India showed that 20 per cent were dying, while 80 per cent were recovering, which is better than the global average, Aggarwal maintained.

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