Thursday, June 4, 2020
Home Editor's picks India has managed to flatten the Coronavirus curve despite Tablighi Jamaat cases: Here are...

India has managed to flatten the Coronavirus curve despite Tablighi Jamaat cases: Here are the facts and charts

Shamika Ravi believes that even though it is a little too early to comment, but, if this trend continues, it will soon bring some relief for India.

Also Read

OpIndia Staffhttps://www.opindia.com
Staff reporter at OpIndia

Just strategists and experts started believing that India may have flattened the Wuhan Corornavirus curve with the strict 21-day nationwide lockdown, the Tablighi Jamaat super spreader caused a Coronavirus explosion in India and pushed back our efforts in fighting the pandemic.

Over 95% of the coronavirus cases reported over the last two days in India have been found to have links with the Tablighi Jamaat congregation in Delhi. However, due to the relentless efforts of the government to contact trace and quarantine effectively, India’s coronavirus spread curve flattened again yesterday, giving rise to the hope that if we could maintain this, India might be back on track soon.

Economist Shamika Ravi, who is currently the Director of Research at Brookings India and former member, PM’s Economic Advisory Council, in a series of Tweets today shared some graphical representation of statistical data showing a welcome turn in the Coronavirus growth rate in India where the curve seems to have flattened. She believes that even though it is a little too early to comment, but, if this trend continues, it will soon bring some relief for India.

The first graph she shares shows the countries with 50,000+ confirmed cases and India as on April 4, 2020. The graph shows the countries where the confirmed Coronavirus cases have doubled in two, three and five days.

Compared to countries like the US and Spain which have regularly seen cases doubling every 2 days as well as 3 days, as on March 23 India saw a reduction in growth rate from cases doubling every 3 days to 5 days.

The economist credits this to the restrictions imposed by various states and the centre as on March 12, namely:

  • Travel ban and restrictions for certain oversees countries imposed by the central government.
  • State-imposed shut down of school, colleges and public places.
  • States passed stringent quarantine laws

According to the March 29 update, there was once again an increase in India’s growth rate from cases doubling every 5 days to every 4 days. This Shamika Ravi says was probably the effect of the Tablighi Jamaat congregation in Delhi held between March 13 to March 15.

Graph depicting the Coronavirus spread in India shared by Shamika Ravi

In the second tweet, Ravi shares two graphs, In the first graph the orange line represents the total number of confirmed cases in India from March 21 to April 4. As we can see in the graph India saw a sudden surge in cases from March 31 to April 2, the sudden spike is probably due to the Tablighi Jamaat cases, however, the graphical representation shows that after April 2 until April 4 the yellow line is flat. This means that according to the last two days statistics the growth curve has flattened for India. This can again, safely be attributed to the exemplary efforts of the government who are successfully contact tracing and then promptly isolating those tracked.

Graph depicting the Coronavirus spread in India shared by Shamika Ravi

The second graph displays how the active cases in the last five day in India have grown by 20.6%

Graph depicting the Coronavirus spread in India shared by Shamika Ravi

In the next tweet, the economists again by the means to two graphical representation depicts that the Compound daily growth rate of confirmed cases in India has steadied at 13.05%. She confirms that they have “introduced a new statistic for improved understanding of #Covid19India trends – 5day moving average of new confirmed cases – and it shows a welcome flattening”.

The first graph represents the compound daily growth rate from day 0, when the first case was reported, as of April 4, 2020. And the second graph is a reprsentaion of the 5-day moving average of new confirmed cases in India.

Graph 1
Graph 2

In the subsequent tweet, Ravi shows the total Chinese Coronavirus related deaths across major hotspot countries, and in India. According to the graph, amongst all the select countries, the mortality rate per million as on April 4 is the lowest in India.

Graph depicting the Coronavirus spread in India shared by Shamika Ravi

In her last tweet, Ravi graphically breaks up the total confirmed cases into 3 categories:

  • Total number of active cases as on April 4
  • Total number of recovered cases as on April 4
  • Total number of deaths as on April 4

Here she is comparing data from countries which have recorded 50,000+ cases, India and south Korea.

Graph depicting the Coronavirus spread in India shared by Shamika Ravi

If we are to believe these statistics, India’s Coronavirus spread curve has flattened again in the last two days, leading us to hope that the 2-day spike was largely because of the Tablighi Jamaat super spreader effect.

As per the ministry of health and family welfare statistics, the 647 Coronavirus cases reported over the last two days have been linked to the Tablighi Jamaat. The ministry data shows the two-day increase as 664 in India – 328 on Thursday and 336 on Friday.

“There has been an increase in cases over the last two days. Though COVID-19 positive cases were being reported, the surge has happened only over the last two days. This shows that one mistake can have repercussions and can put us back our efforts in fighting such a pandemic,” said Joint Secretary (Health) Lav Agarwal.

Tablighi Jamaat links have been found in cases across 14 states including Andaman and Nicobar, Assam, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

The religious congregation has also put Maharashtra at the top of the statewise active Coronavirus cases, pushing behind Tamil Nadu. The state-wise ministry data as on April 4 had Maharashtra with 423 active cases and Tamil Nadu with 411.

The official data according to the ministry’s official website at on Saturday put the total number of cases in India at 2902 and 68 deaths.

  Support Us  

Whether NDTV or 'The Wire', they never have to worry about funds. In name of saving democracy, they get money from various sources. We need your support to fight them. Please contribute whatever you can afford

OpIndia Staffhttps://www.opindia.com
Staff reporter at OpIndia

Trending now

From Tahir Hussain’s involvement in rioting and murder to Tablighi Jamaat connection in Delhi riots. Here is all we know about the charge sheets...

Delhi Police Crime Branch on Tuesday filed its charge-sheet in the Delhi anti-Hindu riots which took place in February 2020

The Wire report claims Tripura govt paid less amount to students for mid-day meal scheme, data shows govt paid 50% more

Tripura govt debunks The Wire report saying less amount was paid to students under mid-day meal scheme during lockdown

Food Corporation of India fact-checks Scroll, calls out its deliberately misleading report claiming 65 lakh tonnes food grains wasted amid lockdown

The FCI has slammed Scroll after the latter published a report claiming that India had let 65 lakh tonnes of grains go to waste.

Delhi anti-Hindu riots: Tablighi Jamaat, PFI, Jamia links emerge as Delhi Police files charge sheet

The Tablighi Jamaat links have emerged in the charge-sheet filed by the Crime Branch of Delhi Police pertaining to violence in Shiv Vihar area during the Anti-Hindu riots in Delhi.

Amul pumped in Rs 8,000 crore back into rural economy during lockdown, increased milk collection by 15% with seamless supply chain

Dairy cooperative AMUL stood tall as the coronavirus crisis hit the country and against all odds managed to ensure that milk distribution is not impaired and supply chain management is seamless.

LGBT Community condemns pride march at Lal Chowk, abandons Pride Kashmir even as radical Muslims give them death threats

LGBT Community is now saying that holding pride marches during pride month is worthy of condemnation.

Recently Popular

“Chacha hai, aisa kabhi nahin kar sakte,” Nawazuddin Siddiqui’s niece alleges torture, sexual assault by his brother, says the actor did not support her

She further alleged that when she told Nawazuddin about the childhood trauma she went through, even he did not believe her.

Woman ‘protestor’ poops on an overturned police car in middle of riots in America. Watch the video (or maybe not)

A woman was seen defecating on a damaged police car in USA, an act video recorded and photographed by onlookers

Hindustani Bhau files police complaint against Ekta Kapoor for ‘inappropriate sex scene’ in her erotic web series XXX 2

Hindustani Bhau took to Instagram on Monday to share a video from outside Mumbai's Khar Police station stating that he has filed the complaint against Ekta and Shobha Kapoor 'for disrespecting our Indian military, national emblem, colonel tag and defaming our country'.

Kerala: Pregnant wild elephant dies after pineapple stuffed with crackers fed by locals exploded in her mouth

The incident took place in Malappuram district of Kerala when the elephant had wandered into village in search for food.

Pre independence slavery genes? Kangana Ranaut questions Bollywood’s silence on Palghar Sadhu lynching as they voice solidarity over #BlackLivesMatter

Even as celebrities voice their solidarity and put up social media campaign on #BlackLivesMatter, Bollywood actor Kangana Ranaut has questioned their silence on the Palghar Sadhu lynching.

Latest updates and important links about COVID-19 coronavirus

Live statistics and tracking of news related to COVID-19 coronavirus with focus on India.

From Tahir Hussain’s involvement in rioting and murder to Tablighi Jamaat connection in Delhi riots. Here is all we know about the charge sheets...

Delhi Police Crime Branch on Tuesday filed its charge-sheet in the Delhi anti-Hindu riots which took place in February 2020

USA riots: Mahatma Gandhi statue outside the Indian Embassy in Washington DC vandalised by rioters

The statue of Mahatma Gandhi outside the Indian Embassy in Washington DC's Massachusetts Avenue has been vandalised by violent rioters.

Family of deceased Coronavirus positive doctor says that reports of him having to wait 10 hours in Mumbai hospital to get a bed is...

Deceased Mumbai doctor Chittaranjan Bhave's daughter says he didn't had to wait 10 hours to get COVID-19 treatment as per reports

Internet security firm Malwarebytes Labs report says coronavirus campaigns causing a surge in malware attacks

Tech security report says cyber criminals are using work from home and coronavirus campaigns to launch malware attacks

Civil liberties group sues US President Donald Trump for his executive order to regulate social media, alleges the order curbs free speech

NGO Centre for Democracy and Technology files federal lawsuit against Donald Trump's order to regulate social media

Maharashtra governor overrules CM Uddhav Thackeray’s decision to cancel final year university exams, calls it ‘violations of University Act’

Maharashtra CM in an address to the State on Sunday evening announced that the state had no choice but to promote final-year students based without exams

Amid the coronavirus pandemic, nurses of AIIMS Delhi continue to protest for better facilities

The Union of nurses in AIIMS Delhi is demanding better facilities for nursing staff especially female staffers

Indian Railways refunds Rs 1,885 crore to passengers against cancellation of trains due to coronavirus lockdown

On May 21, Indian Railways had announced to restart services of 200 passenger trains that it will operate from June 1.

India lodges strong protest over desecration of Buddhist carvings in PoK’s Gilgit-Baltistan, asks Pakistan to vacate illegally occupied territories

India has lodged a strong protest with Pakistan over the destruction of Indian-Buddhist heritage in the Gilgit-Baltistan region

Connect with us

229,426FansLike
361,284FollowersFollow
245,000SubscribersSubscribe