At a time when the United States has slapped steep tariffs on Indian goods for continuing to import Russian oil, Ukraine has quietly emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of India’s energy trade.
In July 2025, India became Ukraine’s top diesel supplier, even surpassing European nations. According to NaftoRynok, a Ukrainian oil market analytics firm, Indian diesel accounted for 15.5% of Ukraine’s total imports that month. Daily shipments averaged about 2,700 tons, making it one of India’s highest monthly export figures of the year.
From January to July 2025, India’s share in Ukraine’s diesel supply rose to 10.2%, a dramatic increase compared to just 1.9% during the same period last year. The fuel reaches Ukraine through multiple routes, including shipments via Romania along the Danube and through Turkey’s OPET terminal.
For Kyiv, this supply line is nothing short of critical. With its war machinery heavily dependent on fuel, India’s refined diesel, some of it sourced from Russian-origin crude, has helped Ukraine keep its economy running and its armed forces moving.
Other suppliers such as Slovakia, Greece, Turkey, and Lithuania also contributed, but India stood out for its rapid growth in exports. Ironically, while Washington punishes India for buying oil from Russia, it is Indian refiners who are quietly powering Ukraine’s wartime economy.
Trump’s aide blames India, calls it “Modi’s war”
Despite these realities, the Trump administration has chosen to come down hard on India. In July, President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods, first a 25% levy, later doubled, directly linking the move to New Delhi’s continued purchase of discounted Russian crude.
Senior Trump advisers have made sharp remarks about India’s position. Peter Navarro, the president’s trade adviser, went so far as to say the Ukraine conflict was “Modi’s war.” In an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power, Navarro accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of prolonging the war by refusing to cut ties with Moscow’s energy exports.
When the anchor reminded him that the war was started by Russia, Navarro doubled down: “No, I mean Modi’s war!” He described India’s energy purchases as “arrogant” and demanded that India behave “responsibly” as the world’s largest democracy.
“Everyone in America loses because India buys oil from Russia,” Navarro claimed, even suggesting that U.S. taxpayers were indirectly funding the conflict. His comments reflect the growing frustration within some U.S. political circles about India’s refusal to join Western sanctions.
Kevin Hassett, another top Trump-era economic adviser, echoed Navarro’s warning, saying that India’s position could damage relations with Washington. “If the Indians don’t budge, then President Trump is not going to either,” Hassett remarked, hinting that Trump might harden his stance even further.
This is not the first time Trump’s team has targeted India. His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, earlier admitted that the tariffs on Indian exports were intended to squeeze Moscow, with the hope that it would, in turn, pressure Russia to stop the war.
The rhetoric has grown more intense, but New Delhi has always stood firm over its oil imports, emphasising that India’s first need is to find cheap energy for its 1.4 billion people.
India’s role in keeping global prices stable
Beyond the politics, there is another side to the story that rarely makes headlines. Analysts and industry insiders argue that India’s decision to keep buying Russian oil has actually prevented a global energy crisis.
According to estimates cited by Reuters, India has saved over $17 billion since 2022 by purchasing cheaper Russian crude. More importantly, its imports have played a stabilising role in the global market. Sources familiar with the situation cautioned that if India had entirely discontinued imports of Russian oil, global crude prices would have soared to $200 per barrel, almost three times the present rate.
That level of spike would have caused a global energy shock, driving up prices for consumers all over the world from Europe to Asia to America. Instead, India’s presence as a reliable buyer of Russian oil has helped balance supply and demand, keeping markets calmer than they might otherwise have been.
Even U.S. officials have acknowledged this reality. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen previously praised India’s role, suggesting that its approach had actually been beneficial in keeping global fuel prices manageable.
India is caught in a delicate situation. On the one hand, it is increasingly being put under pressure by the U.S. and its Western allies to abandon energy relations with Russia. On the other hand, it has stabilised international markets through its actions, as well as making supplies cheaper for its own people.
The irony remains hard to ignore. While the Trump administration accuses India of prolonging the Ukraine war by buying Russian crude, it is Indian-refined diesel that is keeping Ukraine’s tanks, trucks, and tractors moving. Without India’s role in the energy chain, both Kyiv’s war effort and global oil markets would be under far greater strain.
