The country was witnessing perhaps the most fiercely fought assembly elections in a long time. Five states, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Mizoram went into assembly polls, the last phase of voting ending today.
With voting drawing to an end, every pollster released their exit poll numbers and predicted which party might win the respective states.
Interestingly, most exit polls were vague with large margins of errors. Even so, most polls predicted a resounding defeat for BJP.
With the majority mark in Chattisgarh being 46, only Times Now-CNX and Republic-Jan Ki Baat seemed to project numbers where BJP might just get to the halfway mark.
For Rajasthan, the halfway majority mark is 101. None of the major pollsters seems to give the state to BJP. Jan Ki Bat gave BJP 83-103, Congress 81-101 and Others, 16. Jan Ki Baat has given an extremely wide range of 20 seats.
With the majority mark being 116, Axis and Jan Ki Baat do predict a majority for BJP but with extremely high margin or error of 20 seats. CNX also seems to believe that BJP is poised to cross the halfway mark in Madhya Pradesh.
With the ones updated so far, Telangana seems to be going TRS’ way unanimously and BJP has no stake in the elections.
Mizoram seems to be going the MNF way with neither parties reaching the halfway mark.
BJP internal survey
Credible sources within the BJP party have told OpIndia that BJP is predicting a narrow victory for itself in all three major states of Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, contrary to what most Exit Polls are predicting.
Following are the numbers of BJP’s internal survey
With the majority mark being 116 in Madhya Pradesh, BJP internal survey is giving the party anywhere between 115 to 120 seats.
With the majority mark in Rajasthan being 101, BJP internal survey is giving the party anywhere between 95 and 102 seats.
With the majority mark in Chattisgarh being 46, BJP internal survey is giving the party 47 to 52 seats.
With several years of anti-incumbency in all three states, BJP, sources tell us, are confident of their prospects in all three states even with their internal numbers giving them the edge marginally.
The final results of all states are to be released on 11th December.