Pakistan, for the third time in a row, has topped the list of nations at the highest risk of witnessing mass killings, as per the recent report by the US think tank Early Warning Project.
In its 28-page report, Early Warning Project (EWP) outlined that Pakistan is faced with numerous security and human rights challenges, including increased violence by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Notably, Early Warning Project is a joint initiative of the US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for Genocide Prevention and Dartmouth College’s Dickey Center for International Understanding. The Early Warning Project is a research organisation that identifies nations that are at high risk of mass violence.
Notably, this report comes as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) broke the ceasefire with the government earlier this week. TTP violated the ceasefire agreement reached with the government in June, ordering terrorists to launch attacks across the country.
“As military operations against mujahideen are ongoing in various areas […] it is imperative that you carry out attacks wherever you can in the entire country,” the statement said, addressing its militants.
The decision was made “following a series of continuous attacks launched by military organisations on TTP in Baanu’s Laki Marwat district,” the TTP statement read.
The EWP report further mentions ‘militant violence’ and separatist movements active in the country. The report cites the ISIS attack on a Shiite mosque in Peshawar which claimed 56 lives. Other than terrorism, the report states that Pakistan’s blasphemy laws are the major cause behind increased mob violence against religious minorities.
Notably, there have been countless cases wherein people belonging to minority communities, particularly Hindus have been assaulted and killed over mere suspicion of insult of Islam.
The removal of Imran Khan from power through a no-confidence motion and the debate around the current government’s response to the severe floods in the country prompt that the upcoming general elections in Pakistan are likely to be ‘highly contentious’, the report asserts.
According to the Early Warning Project’s assessment model, Pakistan’s high estimated risks are its “lack of freedom of movement for men, high infant mortality rate, large population as well as a history of mass killings.”
It is notable that Pakistan has been at the forefront of terrorism, whether it is state-sponsored cross-border terrorism targeting India, crushing rebellions in Balochistan, or targeting its own religious minorities such as Hindus, Shiites, and Ahmadiyyas, among others.
In the report, Yemen comes in second place and Myanmar is ranked in third place. While Afghanistan is ranked 7th, India is ranked 8th, which do raise questions about the methodology of the study. While most other countries in the top ten have seen mass killings both by terrorists and state forces, no such incidents have taken place in India in recent times.
Interestingly, the report says that it is designed to assess the risk of a new mass killing, not of the continuation or escalation of ongoing episodes. This means the report projects the possibility of mass killing in future. In fact, India was placed in second place in the last year’s report, but no such mass killings were seen in the year. This year, the report states that there is a 7.4% or approximately 1 in 14 chance of a new mass killing beginning in India in 2022 or 2023.
