Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray led Maha Vikas Aghadi government came to power in November 2019. Although the Congress and NCP, which fought against the Shiv Sena-BJP, were given the mandate to sit in opposition, it was Sena’s decision to part ways with BJP which led to the formation of Maha Vikas Aghadi government.
Now, let’s discuss what happened over the past 2 years and why BJP did not compromise with Sena to form its own government in spite of a favourable mandate. The results were BJP 105, 10 independents, Sena 56, NCP 54 and Congress 44. With this result, it was evident that BJP didn’t have the numbers on its own to reach the magical figure of 145 to form the government.
What went wrong with BJP?
I know many BJP supporters, who hate Congress and the NCP, advised the party to accept the demand of Shiv Sena and form the government in Maharashtra. However, in Maharashtra politics, BJP central leadership was of the opinion that they will either form the government as per the mandate on their terms or they would sit in opposition. A Bihar-like compromise was not acceptable to BJP in Maharashtra especially when the party was in a dominant position.
Under Devendra Fadnavis, BJP successfully completed the first 5 years. However, these were the 5 years that BJP had to face opposition from its own ally Shiv Sena. Shiv Sena, which was then in government, used to criticise BJP like a mainstream opposition party while sharing power. During these 5 years, a ground of enmity was created between BJP and Sena cadres. BJP cadres demanded Sena’s ouster from the government at the Centre and state after Sainiks started abusing Modi.
Uddhav went on to call Modi a ‘chowkidar’ who is a ‘chor’ (thief), a line parroted by Rahul Gandhi in the year 2018. However, in spite of all the enmity, BJP-Sena fought Lok Sabha elections together against the wishes of BJP cadres. The trouble between Sena and BJP started after Devendra Fadnavis was appointed CM of Maharashtra without consulting Shiv Sena. This situation was exploited by Sharad Pawar by lending unconditional support to BJP even without BJP asking for it.
Later, Sharad Pawar himself clarified in an interview that the support given to BJP was his ploy to create differences between BJP and Shiv Sena. Rumours in Maharashtra attribute several reasons to the rift between Shiv Sena and BJP. One of them is that Shiv Sena was asked to merge with BJP since two Hindutva parties are not required in Maharashtra. This is, however, just a rumour and there is no way to confirm if at all there was a meeting between Amit Shah and Uddhav Thackeray and whether a discussion about the merger came up, angering Uddhav Thackeray.
Story behind Maha Vikas Aghadi Formation
It is widely reported in media circles that Maha Vikas Aghadi was Sharad Pawar’s creation and the BJP was trumped by this decision. However, the fact of the matter remains no one knew what transpired in the meeting between Modi, Shah and Sharad Pawar exactly before the announcement of the Mahavikas Aghadi Government. But Mahavikas Aghadi government was formed because BJP refused to bow down either to Sena or the NCP’s demands.
Modi-Shah’s refusal to sacrifice Devendra and fear of survival led to this alliance. The idea of Mahavikas Aghadi was first openly opposed by Ajit Pawar within NCP and went on to form a Government with Devendra Fadnavis, for 80 hours, which was a shocker to all three parties and its supporters. BJP supporters then celebrated it as biggest masterstroke however disappointing them in later stage when the government fell after supreme court order denying secret voting.
This lead to further bad blood between BJP other parties. BJP’s image due to failed coup was further damaged and Uddhav Thackeray got natural sympathy. The insecurity of Sena and NCP for its survival lead to the formation of the unexpected Mahavikas Aghadi Government. No one expected Shiv Sena would ever ally with a political party like Congress which is known to be a rabid Islamist sympathiser among commoners. Shiv Sena’s image of hardcore Hindutva took a hit, however, politics of convenience and Sharad Pawar’s media management (Including Bollywood PR agencies) helped them with the new image.
Myth of Government Stability and its survival
After the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government, people thought that this government wouldn’t survive 6 months. However, credit goes to Sharad Pawar who made this government that it is stable till now. Even Devendra Fadnavis was issuing statements continuously that the government isn’t stable and will fall on its own.
Over the top Marathi media made a habit of running the story ‘Operation Lotus’ to ensure it doesn’t happen. It was the Marathi Media led liberals who wanted BJP out of power more than politicians. Marathi Media openly took sides and aggressively did whatever it could to protect the image of this government. They even went on to run fake stories. But the fact remains that BJP didn’t topple the government. The most interesting fact is that BJP didn’t topple the government even when it had an opportunity to topple it by constitutional means but went on to help Uddhav Thackeray by giving clearance for elections.
BJP supporters on social media furthered conspiracy theories of the MVA government falling and even went on to attack CM personally. Some of them were hunted by the state government and were sent behind bars. MVA leaders made it a habit of attacking BJP Maharashtra by challenging BJP to oust them from power. In spite of such provocation, the government remained stable.
If BJP’s central leadership wanted to topple the government, it could. The obvious question to ask, then, is why BJP wants this government to survive especially when the economic capital of the country is not under its wing, at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi envisioned to make India a USD 5 trillion economy and a global power house by 2024-25. The answer to this is political. BJP wants to take over the entire opposition space and become the sole political bearer of Hindutva.
- By allowing the formation of the MVA government, BJP is a step closer to achieving its goal. For the average Hindu, Shiv Sena is no more a pro-Hindu party.
- BJP wants to keep Congress as its sole opponent, so the formation of MVA has revived Congress to some extent. Now BJP expects NCP to disintegrate and split between Congress and BJP.
- BJP wants absolute power without any blackmailing factors to rule smoothly to achieve its economical and ideological goals.
These are the 3 primary reason MVA was allowed to form and survive till date.
Secret behind Sanjay Raut’s statement on Pune Muncipal Corporation and politics within Maha Vikas Aghadi
Sanjay Raut’s statement of seeing Shiv Sena Mayor in PCMC and PMC is seen primarily as a divide within MVA alliance partners. However, the statement is of Sharad Pawar’s more than of Uddhav Thackeray. An interesting fact is no one from NCP even reacted to the statement of Sanjay Raut. In Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad, the political fight is between BJP and NCP. BJP is the ruling party in both the corporations, however, the opposition NCP is learned to be loyal to Ajit Pawar’s faction.
Sharad Pawar knows that Ajit Pawar still holds organisational grass root control of the party. Therefore, incase of imminent split within the party, many Ajit Pawar loyalists will side with Ajit Pawar, making NCP weaker. Sharad Pawar, who is planning to handover the mantle of NCP leadership to his daughter Supriya Sule, is aware of the fact that unless he wrests the control over the organisation from grass root level, it’s impossible to get a smooth transition within as both Ajit Pawar and Supriya Sule are ambitious, however Supriya Sule is not a mass leader and more of an AC politician whereas Ajit Pawar has his ears on ground.
He starts his meeting early morning at 6 am and continues till late 11 pm. Therefore, Sanjay Raut’s statement is a ploy by SP to weaken Ajit Dada’s NCP by giving a mayor position to Shiv Sena. NCP will keep all powerful positions, including the standing committee which decides funding of corporations. Giving token Mayor position to Sena will help Sharad Pawar to control the Corporation indirectly, thereby weakening his nephew’s organisational control. People loyal to Ajit Dada will soon shift loyalties to SP and thereby, it will become easy for the NCP supremo to handover NCP to his daughter. Here, the real fight is within MVA and BJP will add fuel to it. The entire raids on Ajit Pawar by central agencies is the handiwork of Internal TIP within MVA to agencies.
Future of BJP and Maha Vikas Aghadi
BJP central leadership has unleashed all the agencies and even MVA leaders allege that its BJP which has misused the agencies but the fact remains that agencies were involved due to mistrust within MVA leaders, Court interventions and Bureaucratic procedures.
It was after alleged the suicide of Bollywood actor Sushant Singh Rajput that central agencies entered Maharashtra. With drugs involved, NCB got busy with multiple raids and questioning. In the process, relatives of MVA leaders were arrested and thus, MVA leaders started accusing centre of misusing agencies against them. But the fact remains that agencies were always given free hand and they acted on the intelligence inputs, private complaints and many other leads which they found during investigations.
It was the Supreme court which ordered a CBI investigation and on CBI’s request, NCB started probing the drugs angle. All these agencies were formed during Congress era and none of them are creations of BJP. The reason why BJP is accused of strong handedness is because of the no nonsense image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his refusal to interfere politically in bureaucratic actions. Top leadership also wants actions against these mafias, however as far as political interference in concerned, they will only intervene if any top political leader has to be prosecuted. Because such actions do have political ramifications.
So BJP supporters who accuse BJP of not taking things to logical conclusion must understand that once investigation is in process, it’s a long fight and its effects cannot be seen immediately. Now let’s come to ED investigations against MVA leaders.
Only leader who appears to be not bothered about recent raids is Ajit Pawar. It is believed that the raids on Ajit Pawar was due to inputs shared to the agencies from within MVA. But the most disturbed leaders within MVA due to raids belong to Sharad Pawar’s team. I am saying this based on their reaction. Anil Deshmukh is absconding, Hasan Mushrif created a havoc when Kirit Somaiyya wanted to see irregularities in his constituency, Nawab Malik is furious because his son in law was arrested by NCB.
Whereas Ajit Pawar, barring few statements of disappointment, chose not to react in similar way like other ministers close to Pawar reacted. It is evident that Modi Shah won’t topple this government and neither are they using agencies to topple it, but agencies are involved because of the information it gets due to disgruntled leaders. However, to cover up the struggle within MVA, the likes of Sanjay Raut, with help of PR and Marathi Media, are unleased on BJP and the centre is blamed for everything wrong happening to them. BJP leadership is patient and has given clear message to its cadres that there will be no alliance in future and BJP will go solo on its own. BJP cadres will have to remain patient and see how politics unfolds in coming days.
Note: The article has been authored by Vipin Menon, a researcher from Maharashtra. He tweets at @vvmspeaks.
