In a decisive verdict in the assembly elections, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is all set to script history by becoming the only incumbent Chief Minister to retain power among the four states, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, where assembly elections were held and results are being declared today. As vote counting progressed on Monday morning, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was surging towards a landslide victory in Assam, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 64 seats in the 126-member Assembly and marching towards 90-plus seats in early trends, possibly crossing the 100 mark.
According to the latest updates, the NDA is leading in 102 seats by mid-morning, with the BJP alone dominating a bulk of the seats. The Congress-led opposition alliance, on the other hand, is restricted to just 24 seats, pointing to a rout of epic proportions. Exit polls had already predicted this outcome, as most of them had forecasted 88-101 seats for the NDA, and the actual counting trends have reinforced the projections.
As per official updates by the Election Commission, BJP is leading in 78 seats, AGP in 10 seats and BPF in 10 seats, totalling 97 for NDA as per official trends. Congress is leading in 24 seats, while AIUDF is leading in only 2 seats.
The star of the show remained Himanta Biswa Sarma himself. The dynamic Chief Minister, contesting from Jalukbari, is leading by a massive margin of over 8,000 votes in early rounds, cementing his personal popularity and the NDA’s hold over urban and rural Assam alike. Allies like the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) are too delivering strong performances in their traditional pockets, ensuring the NDA’s sweep.
In sharp contrast, the opposition alliance led by Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi is suffering a crushing defeat. Gogoi, who was projected as the Congress’s chief ministerial face and spearheaded a high-decibel campaign against the Sarma government on issues of “corruption” and “anti-people policies”, was trailing BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami in the prestigious Jorhat constituency after the initial rounds of counting. The son of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and a three-time Lok Sabha MP, Gaurav Gogoi’s gamble to shift from parliamentary politics to the assembly has backfired spectacularly.
The rout is not limited to Gaurav Gogoi alone. Key opposition figures from the alliance, Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi and Assam Jatiya Parishad president Lurinjyoti Gogoi, are also trailing in their respective seats, signalling a complete rejection of the “Mahagathbandhan” experiment. Notably, the media had hyped the ‘three Gogoi’ alliance, claiming that they are presenting a strong opposition to the NDA govt. But all three Gogois themselves are unlikely to win their own seats, if the trends hold.
Despite record voter turnout of over 85.9 per cent, the highest since 1951, and claims of a “silent wave” against the BJP, results show that the people of Assam have overwhelmingly endorsed the NDA’s governance model centred on development, infrastructure, and a firm stance on infiltration.
Gaurav Gogoi and other leaders had dismissed exit polls as “inaccurate” just days ago, claiming a “silent wave” in their favour.
It is certain that NDA’s aggressive campaign on issues like deportation of illegal immigrants, eviction drives, and welfare schemes for indigenous communities resonated deeply with Assamese voters. Sarma’s leadership has delivered a hat-trick for the BJP in the state, making him one of the most influential leaders in the Northeast.
Meanwhile, across the other states counting votes today, no incumbent Chief Minister appears headed for re-election. In West Bengal, early trends showed the BJP making massive inroads against Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress. In Kerala, the UDF is eyeing a comeback against the ruling LDF of Pinarayi Vijayan.
Even though Tamil Nadu has seen a fragmented verdict, the DMK alliance of M.K. Stalin is set to lose the elections. An alliance of AIADMK-BJP and actor Vijay’s TVK is likely to form the govt in the state.
The union territory of Puducherry joins Assam in pro-incumbency trend, as AINRC-led NDA govt is set to retain power there too. However, among the states, Himanta Biswa Sarma is the only CM set to retain power, which makes the victory in Assam remarkable.
