Three key takeaways before UP election results and one major factor being overlooked by all

This is the most interesting day in the election season. Two days after elections and one day before results. Hope, fear, disbelief – it is all there. Tomorrow will be different; it will all look so simple. I took some time off yesterday to take a look at the notes taken during this election season. There are always some moments which prick you, you are not instantly able to decipher these but over time they start to make sense. There are 3 such moments in this season which struck me,

  1. Albatross around the neck moment – There is this story of a monkey which walks beneath a bullock cart and proudly feels that he is the one carrying the cart. The bullocks meanwhile toil hard but have no time to display bravado. INC is the monkey and SP the bullocks in our case. Akhilesh willingly tied a dead weight around his neck. I don’t know whether it was low confidence, pragmatism, recklessness or just a brain fade but giving 105 seats to a party which has no idea of what to do with it defies logic. Nevertheless, Akhilesh is here to stay. If BSP gets an insignificant number of seats this time around, BJP and SP should be the main contenders in UP for some time to come.
  1. The Donald Trump Moment: During the primaries and election campaigning, Trump used barbs against his opponents, eg: Crooked Hillary. Media described them as deplorable predicting his downfall. But as we saw later, they were not just random impromptu ramblings. There was careful analytics based on unstructured data collected from various sources. They identified keywords which would create maximum impact and were used carefully at appropriate locations. When, ‘Kabristan’ and ‘Samshan’ erupted, it gave me a familiar feeling. Turns out it was the same. BJP had carried out 2 detailed surveys in UP to identify pain points. Identified issues were crafted in a strategy and delivered from the highest level.
  1. The Hangover Moment: Something strange happened after the 4th:  BSP, who had been a footnote so far started receiving more attention. There was a spurt of articles reminding one of the silent vote and warning against counting Mayawati out. This, I believe was a hangover of Brexit and US elections -we are so eager to recreate everything that has happened in the West. Much has been written about Trump’s silent vote and our media searching for gladiators found refuge in Mayawati and her hidden vote. But in the case of Trump, apprehensions were backed by solid observations. When opinion polls were conducted in the US, telephonic polls gave Hillary a higher probability of winning as against anonymous online polls. The conclusion was that there is a stigma attached to a Trump voter which makes them hide their preferences. No such observation was revealed here, yet the silent vote story. That the timing of these stories coincided with trends of SP+INC fizzling out was actually a giveaway. In despair, Hope becomes a strategy and we start clutching onto straws.

The UP voter is not silent; he is vocal and has strong opinions. It is this trait perhaps which helps pollsters to gauge ki hawa ka rukh kidhar hai. Here is a quick look at previous UP exit polls,


In all 3 cases, our pollsters predicted the ‘hawa’ correctly but were conservative with number of seats for the winning party. If the past is any indication of the future, we might see another landslide tomorrow


Share This Post and Support:
We need your support to survive in the media industry. Please consider paying us for the content we produce:

To know more about these payments, please click here.


Most read articles recently

Nehru Gandhi family celebrates birthday in aeroplane

A Pulitzer Prize winning report on Priyanka Gandhi’s aeroplane trip by Mausambi Singh

Priyanka Gandhi took an IndiGo flight from Delhi to Lucknow, and it was a flight to remember.
Christian Michel documents: Rafale delayed because of Eurofighter lobbying and Sweden's Bofors 'leverage' over Gandhis?

Christian Michel documents: Rafale delayed because of Eurofighter lobbying and Sweden’s Bofors ‘leverage’ over Gandhis?

These documents that point towards the Gandhi family are secret notes about Eurofighter lobbying faxed by Christian Michel to Guido Haschke. 

Anti-BJP accounts on social media, including Huffpost, Scroll journalist, celebrate death of Manohar Parrikar

As the sad news of passing away of Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar came in, social media was filled with condolence messages from people in every spectre of life, from politicians to celebrities to ordinary netizens, irrespective of their political affiliation. Manohar Parrikar was known for his simplicity and...

More than 70 vessels including INS Vikramaditya, nuclear submarines, battleships were deployed near Pakistan after Pulwama Attack: Indian Navy

Carrier Battle Group led by INS Vikramaditya, nuclear submarines and other battleships of Indian Navy were at the North Arabian Sea after the Pulwama attack
When Manohar Parrikar found $3 billion of our money lying forgotten in a US account

When Manohar Parrikar found $3 billion of our money lying forgotten in a US account

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar had revealed that he had found $3 billion (or Rs 20,000 crore) of Govt of India money lying forgotten in a US account.

India Today uses the photo of a Hindu girl to highlight the high rate of child marriage among Muslims in Kerala

Recently a detergent brand was highly criticised by people for releasing a Hinduphobic advertisement targeting the festival of Holi.

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra: How Congress’ ‘masterstroke’ may have just been a damp squib

The first 50 days of her official induction in Congress have been quite disappointing to say the least
Sharad pawar claims the IAF conducted air strikes on his suggestion

The man who concocted a bomb blast for secularism claims the Balakot air strikes were done on his suggestion

Sharad Pawar said that PM Modi and Defence Minister were absent in the meeting in which he advised the security officials to take down the terror hideouts

Bhim Army pours scorn on Priyanka Gandhi Vadra

Priyanka Gandhi apparently is proving a disaster as Congress general secretary in-charge for east Uttar Pradesh
PM Modi continues his Main Bhi Chowkidar campaign on Twitter

Prime Minister Narendra Modi changes his Twitter name after many supporters started the trend

In continuation with his 'Main Bhi Chowkidar' campaign, PM Modi changes his Twitter display name by prefixing 'Chowkidar' to it

Latest articles

Connect with us

146,928FansLike
118,548FollowersFollow
29,382SubscribersSubscribe

Don't miss these


Share This Post and Support: