NASA has upgraded the possibility of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the earth in 2032 to 3.1 per cent or simply a 1-in-32 chance. These are the highest odds of a collision predicted so far. It has been reported that much of the asteroid’s estimated path passes over empty ocean, however, some possible impact locations are close to large cities Bogotá, Lagos and Mumbai. Some reports also include Chennai as a possible impact location.
NASA says the chances of a collision in 2032 have increased from 1 in 83 since it was initially discovered. It has since risen to 1 in 67, 1 in 53, 1 in 43, 1 in 38, and currently 1 in 32.
One asteroid, 2024 YR4, has been of particular interest to planetary defense experts because of its low chance of Earth impact in 2032. As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/rGOg0UPMPC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 14, 2025
Scientists, however, are of the view that merely because the odds increased this time or last week does not mean that the asteroid may actually hit the Earth. These odds may also come down in the coming time.
“Just because the probability has risen does not mean it will continue to do so,” said Professor Hugh Lewis, an astronautics specialist at the University of Southampton.
Similarly, NASA’s Molly L Wasser said, “It is possible that Asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list.”
Furthermore, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2.81% chance of colliding with Earth on 22nd December 2032.
